Gas prices

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European gas slumps below €100 for first time since Russia cut supplies​

Mild weather and large amounts of fuel on storage have helped reduce prices


https://www.ft.com/content/8d2d1e54-b2b7-4213-a1c4-daf9d42884cc

European natural gas prices have dropped below €100 per megawatt hour for the first time since Russia slashed supplies this summer, with warm weather and close-to-full gas storage easing concerns over winter shortages.

The price drop will come as a boost for the EU leaders who are working to place a cap on the price of the fuel as it fights high inflation and a slowing economy, and in an attempt to deny Moscow funds for its invasion of Ukraine.

Dutch TTF gas futures, the benchmark European contract, dropped as low as €93.35/MWh ($27 per MMBTU) on Monday, down nearly 20 per cent compared with Friday, the lowest it has been since mid-June. European gas prices are now 70 per cent below levels seen in August, when they soared above €300/MWh, although they are still well above the €20 to €40/MWh range they largely traded at over the past decade."
 
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A mild winter so far and a lot of people being careful is reducing the demand. Not to mention governments getting their act together to ditch Russian gas.
 
They have upped their storage to about 95%. Meanwhile, there are tankers waiting around full of LNG. Part of this is because they can't off load due to regasification resources. But also, they are waiting for the price to rise again. The futures price is higher than the current price:


Due in part because of the mild weather, it has meant that less gas is being used. Possibly, many are afraid to use more.
It all means that a market situation called contango has emerged for LNG, says Mr Carson. That is, when the future price of a commodity is higher than today's price.
"You would get a higher price for a delivery for January than you would in November," he explains.
Less cement & concrete is also being produced.
 
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LNG accounted for 24% of total natural gas imports in the EU in 2021 – the rest is supplied through pipelines, mainly from Russia, Norway, the UK and Algeria.  11 LNG importing countries in the EU: Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Lithuania, Croatia, Malta.  21 terminals operational as of mid-February 2022 in Europe, for a total regasification capacity of 160 bcm/year and a total storage capacity of 7.65 millions of m3 LNG.  5 additional projects (including expansion at existing terminals) under construction in the EU as of mid-February 2022, for a total additional regasification capacity of at least 19.5 bcm/year.
 
But now it's 2022 and times have changed.
yep it still 2022 in case you dont realise the yearly figures cannot come out till the end of the year which is why it also mentions total current storage capacity . 3 years and several billion euros before germany has an LNG terminal
 
Hoping for a mild winter for a lot of reasons, but surely theres also going to be a substantial reduction in usage anyway due to people reluctant to use their heating etc due to cost.
I live on my own and, so far, I'm managing to have the heating on less. 1980's bungalow that has pretty sh1t insulating properties. I'm WFH so the current heating strategy is as follows:

Mon-Fri: Heating goes on around 5.30pm, off around midnight.
Sat: I'm usually out most of the day, so it maybe goes on 9-10pm and off around midnight.
Sun: My 'treat day' heating goes on when I get up (late morning) and goes off around midnight.

Even when it's on, I don't have it ultra high, I've never liked what to me is oppressive levels of heat.

When it's off, I have my dressing gown on over my jumper and joggers, two pairs of socks if needed and my slippers :) I've also done things like put a piece of carpet at my work desk (laminate floor) which also helps keeps the chills away.

Whether I'll be able to stick to this if it gets colder, I'm not sure!
 
yep it still 2022 in case you dont realise the yearly figures cannot come out till the end of the year which is why it also mentions total current storage capacity . 3 years and several billion euros before germany has an LNG terminal
Or 5 for next Winter.

 
Or 5 for next Winter.

temporary floating terminals are not proper land based LNG terminals and their capacity is no where near land based terminals Britain's 3 terminals dwarf these 5 and they are not even running at full capacity all 5 when online over a year will provide less than 2 winter months of the german russian shortfall
 
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