Government study (2012) on turning down room temperature

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This is interesting but a bit beyond me, so I would appreciate anyone’s insight. When googling info on heat loss for the other thread, I came across this link to a government study from 2012, which covers the energy savings from turning the room temperature down by 1 degree, from 19C to 18C.

I think it is saying that, on the basis of a heat loss calculation (using the difference between inside and outside temperature), the saving would be expected to be 8%. But they say other factors mean there is a multiplier of about 3:2, so that the actual saving is about 50% more than that. Which means a saving of 13% from turning down by 1 degree, which was a lot more than I had ever anticipated. That bit is on page 9. Then on page 26 they give more details. The rest of the report is way beyond me, particularly the statistical stuff.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...energy-could-be-saved-by-making-small-cha.pdf

The change to thermostat setting reduced the mean temperature difference between external and internal temperatures by 8%. Heating system efficiencies and other factors imply that heating energy varies by a factor of about 3:2 to temperature difference. Taking these two facts together, a 13% saving sounds reasonable.
 
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