More economic gloom

[joe-90]

This is quite interesting. It's from exactly 4 years ago.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3777413.stm

 

[tim west]

Yes interesting maybe too late?

 

[Bilioustrumpstaine]

It's not the producers upping the price - that is the market rate. It's all about oil futures. Oil isn't sold in a market by men in robes and camels outside.

So it is speculation thats driving the price up then?

No, the fact that that is what you must pay to obtain what you want.

It's like an auction. When there is a shortage - then the price will rise.

There is a shortage of houses but you predict a 50% fall in prices over the next 2 yrs, how does that work ?

 

[joe-90]

It's not my prediction.

 

[Bilioustrumpstaine]

No major oil finds since the 60s. That's the fact of the matter.

What about these then

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/09/06/business/oil.php

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7044922

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7348111.stm

So apart from these finds and they reckon that the South American field is huge I suppose we have found none.

Your statement is about as accurate as the link you posted that said no N sea oil from mid 2007.

I have a picture of you joe sat in front of a screen with a little raincloud above you and the angel of death on one shoulder and a vulture on the other.

Lighten up mate

 

[anobium]

Amazing, all the doom merchants telling us the end is nigh when a few years ago the same people were telling us to invest in property etc.
The simple truth is nobody can accurately forecast more than a few years ahead its all a guessing game just like going to the bookies.

You don't have a guessing game with finite resources. No major fields have been found since the 1960s. Supply can no-longer meet demand. We've known it was coming for years - now it's here.

What about the oil reserves in Canada, estimated to be 6 times that of Saudi Arabia.

See this,
CAPP's own estimate of Canada's recoverable oil sands is 315 billion bbls - 20% from mining and the rest from steam-assisted drilling.

Whilst I accept to a certain degree that oil is a major factor in the world economy, the point I was trying to make was that invariably some unforseen factor will arise, be it good or bad, that will make all the current forecasts irrelevant.
God it was only 18months ago that Gordon Brown was one of the greatest Chancellors ever, God knows now were he is on the list, probably somewhere near the bottom.
The chinese situation is nothing new its been known about for the last 15 years.It didn't suddenly happen overnight anymore than all the other excuses being thrown up.
Personally I would lay a few bob on the money speculators being responsible for the increase in the cost of fuel .
Who was it a few years ago who made billions overnight by outsmarting the British government, Sorus.

 

[Bilioustrumpstaine]

Oil has hit a new record high. So the solution? To ask the Saudis to increase production! Err hello? That will only make the inevitable dry-well crash sooner and harsher. Shouldn't we be using less?

House prices are predicted to drop by 50% over the next 2 years and won't regain their current level until 2017. Will it leave you with negative equity?

This was your opening post joe, 50% drop in 2 yrs.

 

[joe-90]

In a few years time we will use 100,000,000 barrels per day. That's a billion barrels every 10 days. How long will 5 billion barrels last us? Into the next century? You work it out.

 

[joe-90]

Oil has hit a new record high. So the solution? To ask the Saudis to increase production! Err hello? That will only make the inevitable dry-well crash sooner and harsher. Shouldn't we be using less?

House prices are predicted to drop by 50% over the next 2 years and won't regain their current level until 2017. Will it leave you with negative equity?

This was your opening post joe, 50% drop in 2 yrs.

I never said it was my prediction.

 

[Bilioustrumpstaine]

So you don't agree then, why post it

 

[Trazor]

So you don't agree then, why post it

Because he can...............

 

[joe-90]

So you don't agree then, why post it

It is a prediction by a recognised body. I'm in no position to question their research.

 

[tim west]

india had monetery controls in force about 5 or 10 years ago cant remember where no currency was allowed out of the country, this helped them build up reserves that they are now using to advantage, perhaps we shoul stop these speculators from cashing in and undermining economies

 

[Bilioustrumpstaine]

So you don't agree then, why post it

It is a prediction by a recognised body. I'm in no position to question their research.

I see

 

[anobium]

In a few years time we will use 100,000,000 barrels per day. That's a billion barrels every 10 days. How long will 5 billion barrels last us? Into the next century? You work it out.

I always thought that a billion was a mlllion million, which means that if your figures are correct that the reserves will last a thousand times longer!