D
Deleted member 292770
What’s father christmas bringing you?
Omicron variant caught a cold
- Thread starter Notch7
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because you don't have enough information to say.
edited
Do you know what "exponential" means?
let me see now
On Saturday 4th December, UK Health Security Agency announced it had identified another 26 Omicron cases
Now 250 cases a day
doubles to 500
doubles to 1000
doubles to 2,000
doubles to 4,000
doubles to 8,000
doubles to 16,000
doubles to 32,000
doubles to 64,000
doubles to 128,000 new cases per day
h'mmm
quite a lot.
edited
Do you know what "exponential" means?
let me see now
On Saturday 4th December, UK Health Security Agency announced it had identified another 26 Omicron cases
Now 250 cases a day
doubles to 500
doubles to 1000
doubles to 2,000
doubles to 4,000
doubles to 8,000
doubles to 16,000
doubles to 32,000
doubles to 64,000
doubles to 128,000 new cases per day
h'mmm
quite a lot.
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On track for a million in the next 30 days. We'll see.
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One needs to apply intelligence! You can't blindly compare things which we know would be different then proclaim a result - that figures aren't comparable.
"(No, it just means you can't directly compare the two sets of figures)" You're dead right, it's ridiculous to try. You're the only one who is. So no shít Sherlock, you're saying nothing.
You seem to have no idea of healthcare in SA. Everyone in this county can have free boxes of LF tests in the house, and can get a free PCR test, both of which are registered and counted, PCR 20% sequenced it was, more now.. How many from the townships do you think have that? A hint here: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...public_sector_nurses_and_physicians_in_SA.jpg. Tests are expensive, 80% have to pay. How many would?
I have had the advantage of working there for a while but that meant watching ordinary people die of appendicitis and TB, because they couldn't afford the healthcare. They claim tens of thousands of omi cases. How many do you think there really are?
You're misreading the site you linked , can't be bothered to pick it apart, just look at Campbell's video.
"They have a daily average of 21 deaths right now. How are none of them Omicron?" You can't imagine? Really? What they do, is they TEST them, then they COUNT them. That's why they're reporting that they have had zero omicron deaths.
If your contribution is to ask questions like that.............
Numbers are obviously not your thing. Never mind, just listen to their doctors. Who CAN count.
D
Deleted member 292770
show us the calculation between delta and Omicron and how they know who’s got what. Not measurable is it, given only 1/3-1/2 of the labs have the tech to test for it. or can they tell by looking at you.
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show us the calculation between delta and Omicron and how they know who’s got what. Not measurable is it, given only 1/3-1/2 of the labs have the tech to test for it. or can they tell by looking at you.
I don't need to.
I have shown you the recent growth in Omnicron cases
and an extrapolation of anticipated future growth in Omnicron cases.
I have not made any claims about "the calculation between delta and Omicron" and it is irrelevant to what I have posted.
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I posted this earlier - stick different numbers in as you choose.
[Just playing with numbers:
If "they" are right and omi doubles in 2 days, and we have 1000 cases now, it's about one month until everyone in the country who's going to get it, will have it
(15 doublings means x32000 roughly, so that means 30 days, 32 million peeps.)
Using "Estimated rates of influenza-associated pulmonary and circulatory deaths/100,000 persons were 0.4--0.6 among persons aged 0-49 years, 7.5 among persons aged 50--64 years, and 98.3 among persons aged > 65 years." (so that's a flu) that would be about 30,000 oldest dying off. Not so bad then, but hospitals stuffed.]
1 million in a month is easy - kids' stuff.
If we have 1000 cases now that's x1000 in 30 days.
take log(1000) divided by log(2) gives you the number of doublings
It's ~ 10 so would only need a doubling every 3 days.
We've had a slowly rising period with around 40000 cases a couple of weeks ago and 120 dying a day now which is 333:1.
Pick whatever numbers you prefer
That's delta - if we get to of the order of 1mill running cases a day we should expect 3000 deaths a day (coupe pf weeks later)
about 650 daily C19 admissions now ( 7000 something IN hospital with it)
That would go to 650,000 . Per day.
The highest we ever had was 3,794, per day.
"It is not currently possible to find out the number of people in hospital in England being treated primarily for COVID-19." I thought it was.
Omi isn't as bad as delta, so divide by something. 10? 100? 1000?
For me that says deaths - ok, well tough but not crippling probably
but hospitalisatons much more likely to be serious, "overwhelming" isn't unlikely, depending quite a lot on how effective the vaccines are.
[Just playing with numbers:
If "they" are right and omi doubles in 2 days, and we have 1000 cases now, it's about one month until everyone in the country who's going to get it, will have it
(15 doublings means x32000 roughly, so that means 30 days, 32 million peeps.)
Using "Estimated rates of influenza-associated pulmonary and circulatory deaths/100,000 persons were 0.4--0.6 among persons aged 0-49 years, 7.5 among persons aged 50--64 years, and 98.3 among persons aged > 65 years." (so that's a flu) that would be about 30,000 oldest dying off. Not so bad then, but hospitals stuffed.]
1 million in a month is easy - kids' stuff.
If we have 1000 cases now that's x1000 in 30 days.
take log(1000) divided by log(2) gives you the number of doublings
It's ~ 10 so would only need a doubling every 3 days.
We've had a slowly rising period with around 40000 cases a couple of weeks ago and 120 dying a day now which is 333:1.
Pick whatever numbers you prefer
That's delta - if we get to of the order of 1mill running cases a day we should expect 3000 deaths a day (coupe pf weeks later)
about 650 daily C19 admissions now ( 7000 something IN hospital with it)
That would go to 650,000 . Per day.
The highest we ever had was 3,794, per day.
"It is not currently possible to find out the number of people in hospital in England being treated primarily for COVID-19." I thought it was.
Omi isn't as bad as delta, so divide by something. 10? 100? 1000?
For me that says deaths - ok, well tough but not crippling probably
but hospitalisatons much more likely to be serious, "overwhelming" isn't unlikely, depending quite a lot on how effective the vaccines are.
Yes there are a few anti vaxxers
Doubling from 2000 (approx) now: 2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024k. Nine steps, 3 days each, approx a month.
I'm sceptical, but hey ho.
show us the calculation between delta and Omicron and how they know who’s got what. Not measurable is it, given only 1/3-1/2 of the labs have the tech to test for it. or can they tell by looking at you.
My calc was based on there being 2000 Omicron cases confirmed by sequencing, and the scientists' (you know, the actual scientists) view that it's doubling in 3 days.
Ive heard your forecast mentioned on the news - It seems probable to me.
Was it Ferguson?
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