As the 3 core and earth at the fitting is Yellow, Blue and Red (old colours), it is likely that the Blue is the Neutral, Red is permanent live and Yellow the feed to the live terminal of the light..
BUT as Breezer so eloquently put, without a multimeter to check this out and be 100% sure, do not make the assumption that what I have said is accurate. The wiring could have been done by a half trained monkey for all you know and could be totally cock eyed..
I'm not going to touch it as it's clearly not as straighforward as re-wiring a plug. However based on your assumption where would the red go if the yellow went to the live.
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