Rise in patients at Bolton Hospital as Indian variant spreads

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If the vaccine works this is exactly what will happen. Not for all that have had the jab though. Initially Whitty said that they may have to put up with some deaths. That implies people in hospital as well. More recently has said there will be some. Easing lock down will give them full info on that slowly but surely.

People who wont have the jab need to worry about a real end to lock down or any easing really. Nothing at all especially masks. They have seen the infection rise rate from the first wave when little was done to control it. From covids point of view things are better for it now than when it initially started as it's evenly spread all across the country. They probably also do not realise how small a proportion of the population has actually caught it.

;) I didn't register to read it and wondered if it was an Indian variant thing. What is going on with that is infection rates vary in different parts of the country. All have been pretty constant for some time now. That isn't changing but the proportions of the Indian is - that is increasing. If more infectious rates will rise. They will know if it's more severe sooner from the people who have caught it and had to go into hospital.
 
;) I didn't register to read it and wondered if it was an Indian variant thing. What is going on with that is infection rates vary in different parts of the country. All have been pretty constant for some time now. That isn't changing but the proportions of the Indian is - that is increasing.
Infection rates ARE changing in some areas. Bolton is up 150% over the last week.

SAGE said:
Transmission of this variant is currently faster than that of the B.1.1.7 variant most
prevalent in the UK (high confidence). This is based on observed growth in
sequenced cases, and in S-gene positive cases (S-gene positivity can now be used
as a reasonable proxy for B.1.617.2, though not all labs are able to identify this).
Observed doubling times are around a week or shorter for some of the largest
clusters but slower in others.
...
In the areas where numbers of infections are increasing rapidly under the measures
currently in place, an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed
(high confidence).

Its impossible to know if it's more dangerous for at least a month. Probably more like three months.
 
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Infection rates ARE changing in some areas. Bolton is up 150% over the last week.

I'm inclined to wait for the next lot of results. They come out on Thursday. 150% sounds wow but say it's a middling number it's based on 26 per 100,000 it means 13 extra cases. Then look what has been going on in various areas.

2021infectW18.jpg


That's up to the end of last week.

Vaccine

VaccineW18.jpg
 
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Its impossible to know if it's more dangerous for at least a month. Probably more like three months
They are saying the Indian variant will soon become the dominant strain.

It's thought that vaccines are effective against it.

As you say, we won't know for sure for a while
 
I'm inclined to wait for the next lot of results. They come out on Thursday. 150% sounds wow but say it's a middling number it's based on 26 per 100,000 it means 13 extra cases.

Yep, 150% WOW! As ajohn says, you need to read into the numbers.
 
I'm inclined to wait for the next lot of results. They come out on Thursday. 150% sounds wow but say it's a middling number it's based on 26 per 100,000 it means 13 extra cases. Then look what has been going on in various areas.

your attached chart is quite fuzzy, but in "East Midlands" I can see a line approaching 100 (per 100,000), and something similar in Yorkshire and Humber.

So if there are, say, a million people in that age group (I can't read it) in those regions, we're talking about a thousand cases. So an extra 50% would be 500.

The latest daily rate of new cases for the whole country was 2,027

You did not provide a link.


Some people say the UK government was dilatory in applying controls to people travelling from India.
 
I'm inclined to wait for the next lot of results. They come out on Thursday. 150% sounds wow but say it's a middling number it's based on 26 per 100,000 it means 13 extra cases. Then look what has been going on in various areas.

View attachment 233777

That's up to the end of last week.

Vaccine

View attachment 233779
The 150% is based on the 7 day average up to a week ago (4th to 10th Vs 27th April to 3rd) . So not 13 extra cases, 402 extra cases.

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
 
They had a man from Sage on the box. 1pm news. Mounting evidence that the variant is more infective but it's not easy to tell. Too early in other words.

Bolton hospital - 18 people 13 not vaccinated. Of the other 5 one had both jabs to which Hancock said was fragile. No more details.

EU catching up on vaccine. 300,000 a day in places improving but Germany managed 1.3m in one day.
 
Apparently the Indian variant will lose momentum once it runs out of non vaccinated people to latch on to. I’ve had 4 texts since Friday to bring forward my 2nd jab date. It’s currently booked for 4th June, they must be a bit concerned & want to reduce any risks. Seems very well organised.Got this 20 minutes ago
2360C096-F48E-480B-9134-1B8E8008F030.png
 
Apparently the Indian variant will lose momentum once it runs out of non vaccinated people to latch on to.

as do the other variants.

In my rural village and adjacent small town, the new cases are too low to report.

"People tested positive by specimen date Seven days to 10 May 2021 0 – 2
Rate per 100,000 people: N/A

For smaller areas with fewer than 3 cases, we do not show data. This is to protect individuals' identities."


deaths is last 7 days is zero.

there is a nearby coastal village with a largely retired population, I will try and see what theirs is now.

edit

the same
 
B'ham has had zero death days. ICU average across the country is very low. Infection rates are too. That's a problem really. It needs to spread to see what changes have achieved - in this case anyway, just how effective are the vaccinations. Also the Indian variant. It's a may be more infective but by how much - that aspect really does worry them. They can try to control it's spread but ...................
 
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