Slashing the boats in shallow water, now

[Koolpc]

The frenchare prob paying for the dinghies!!!

 

[Notch7]

But they don’t claim asylum in France. They just hang about, illegally.

158,000 claimed asylum in France in 2024

so yes they do

I’m off to Italy tomorrow. If I destroy my passport on the plane, what do you think would happen to me when I tell them I’m just planning on hanging about in Italy until I can sneak into another country to claim asylum

you need to grow up a bit...........typical Reform supporter. A bigoted fool.

 

[Mottie]

I fear the only baby steps are the ones heading into deeper water where the next lot will drown. I appreciate that is music to some people’s ears

They won't do it in deeper water. They will only do it where they can safely wade out to, which means those in the boat or waiting to get in the boat can safely wade back to shore.

 

[motorbiking]

much smaller numbers than were coming in second half of 202

 

[motorbiking]

"we are on track for....."

a Reform grifters opinion

you're being abusive again.

 

[Mottie]

158,000 claimed asylum in France in 2024

so yes they do

Those that don’t claim asylum in France are breaking the law.

 

[motorbiking]

you cant make the assumption that patterns of small boat crossing follow the same pattern

the numbers crossing depends on the volumes of migrants crossing into Europe from North Africa etc, the success of the smuggling gangs, the effort of the French in stopping them, the geopolitics of the the middle East and North Africa, Putins involvement and many other factors

like it or not the UK government has very little control over those factors...........whether that is Tories, Labour or Reform

A semi intelegent person can make a forecast, even an AI can come up with a reasonable number. Most think we are heading for 50-80000 this year.

 

[Mottie]

you need to grow up a bit...........typical Reform supporter. A bigoted fool.

So you can’t answer that question then? Just say so instead of resorting to abuse.

 

[motorbiking]

Those that don’t claim asylum in France are breaking the law.

correct immigration offences.
They are also illegally operating a passenger vessel
failing to register the vessel and failing to code it.

France has similar laws to us.

 

[motorbiking]

So you can’t answer that question then? Just say so instead of resorting to abuse.

how does he get away with it?

 

[Mottie]

how does he get away with it?

He holds the same views as the mods.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

Those that don’t claim asylum in France are breaking the law.

They are required to claim asylum, in the first safe country, not cruise Europe, to see which country they might take a fancy to.

 

[Notch7]

you're being abusive again.

stating fact is not abuse.

 

[Notch7]

So you can’t answer that question then? Just say so instead of resorting to abuse.

You a fool that repeats childish tropes.

 

[robinbanks]

you cant make the assumption that patterns of small boat crossing follow the same pattern

I was just looking at the shape of the graph lines year by year

Broadly speaking they look like this:

Every year the count starts from 0 and increases until it reached December in the right of the graph and is eg 10k or 20k or 30k etc

The more you get every month throughout the year, the steeper the line is. Winter is very low activity

Suppose instead that these guys did all their coming over in Jan and dec, 20k in Jan, 20k in dec and 0 the rest of the year. A hypothetical (pink) line might look like:

Steep for jan and dec, flat the rest

Lets slice the actual graph:

Roughly roughly, on the vertical that represents "by jun25th", in 2021, about 5000 crossings. In 2023, about 10k so twice as bad, but then maybe heroic effort, weather etc, the latter part of the year really knocked down the crossings and the line flattened out to finish at nearly 2021 levels.
2025, is about 20k

There is a broad trend on the graph, looking at the curves, of an S shape, generally higher than the year before. If 2025 follows that same shape, and offset by the amount it's already describing as a multiplier of any other line of choice, you get to an estimate of about 60k maybe