Is My Masterplug RCD Safe? Please Help!

[ban-all-sheds]

Anybody who chooses to imbue any word with an unofficial definition only has themselves to blame if they don't like what they have chosen.

 

[JohnW2]

...that Monty Hall Problem got me.
(I did not see the explanation of the answer, just the what the producers said after it had run a while and the results were found to be similar to their calculations). ... I eventually gave up to it because I was thinking a 1 in 3 chance becomes a 1 in two chance (a 50% increase on a winning outcome) . ... Two weeks later, having not thought about it, I looked in the mirror, and Eureka - the answer came in a blinding flash out of the blue- simples once you twig it.

I would never speak of ‘Simples’ and the MH problem in the same breath Ironically, it probably is a bit more ‘simple’ for the (statistically) ‘lay’, since the greatest difficulty is that the answer appears to fly in the face of absolutely fundamental principles which are drummed into people throughout a statistical education. As for ‘Eureka moments’, one common feature of (the many!) discussions I’ve been involved in about the MH problem is that people often have ‘multiple Eureka moments’, since the flaws in what they initially think is a ‘Eureka moment’ are often brought to their attention!

Many people, including some very experienced statisticians, are never really convinced by the ‘theoretical solution’ until they see it demonstrated before there eyes by a simulation – these days usually a computer simulation but, in the past, one involving countless little scraps of paper!

Kind Regards, John

 

[ebee]

Yes John, once I twigged it then it seemed simple and yes it did demonstrate it to myself with bits of paper just to confirm to myself.

Strange thing is that the solution was the bugging me for a few days then I eventually gave up on it.

A couple of weeks later it suddenly came to me when apparently I had not thought about - just a sudden blinding flash as I prepared to shave, soaped up, razor ready, looked in mirror then Eureka - that was weird!

 

[ban-all-sheds]

Actually it can be explained very clearly, in a way which is simple, and intuitive.

I won't spoil the fun for anybody who hasn't tried the puzzle, so if you haven't, don't decipher this:

Lbh fgnegrq jvgu guerr qbbef, oruvaq gurz jrer gjb tbngf naq bar pne.

Lbh unir cvpxrq bar, naq gura gur ubfg, JUB XABJF JURER GUR PNE VF, bcraf nabgure gb erirny n tbng.

Lbh ner evtug gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq bar bs gur gjb qbbef jvgu n tbng. Cebonovyvgl gjb guveqf.

Lbh ner jebat gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq gur qbbe jvgu gur pne. Cebonovyvgl bar guveq.

Fvzcyrf.

(I'm assuming that not many people can do ROT13 in their heads).

 

[ebee]

Well at least I`ve just learnt what ROT 13 is.
Thanks BAS now I`ll decipher it.

 

[ebee]

Yep that`s it in a nutshell, simple once you`ve realised .
It becomes a "Kickself question"

I cheated and used an ROT 13 prog to read it. Sorry

 

[JohnW2]

Lbh fgnegrq jvgu guerr qbbef, oruvaq gurz jrer gjb tbngf naq bar pne. Lbh unir cvpxrq bar, naq gura gur ubfg, JUB XABJF JURER GUR PNE VF, bcraf nabgure gb erirny n tbng. Lbh ner evtug gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq bar bs gur gjb qbbef jvgu n tbng. Cebonovyvgl gjb guveqf. Lbh ner jebat gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq gur qbbe jvgu gur pne. Cebonovyvgl bar guveq. Fvzcyrf.
(I'm assuming that not many people can do ROT13 in their heads).

For the lazy amongst thsoe who can't be bothered to do it in their heads, try the following (in BASIC, since that's probably the most universally-undesrood language, but it can easily be adapted to ansy other language. Decoded answer in X$:

• a$ = "Lbh fgnegrq jvgu guerr qbbef, oruvaq gurz jrer gjb tbngf naq bar pne. Lbh unir cvpxrq bar, naq gura gur ubfg, JUB XABJF JURER GUR PNE VF, bcraf nabgure gb erirny n tbng. Lbh ner evtug gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq bar bs gur gjb qbbef jvgu n tbng. Cebonovyvgl gjb guveqf. Lbh ner jebat gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq gur qbbe jvgu gur pne. Cebonovyvgl bar guveq. Fvzcyrf."
  b$ = ""
  For i = 1 To Len(a$)
  b = Asc(Mid$(a$, i, 1))
  If b > 96 And b < 123 Then
  c = b + 13
  If c > 122 Then c = c - 26
  ElseIf b > 64 And b < 91 Then
  c = b + 13
  If c > 90 Then c = c - 26
  Else
  c = b
  End If
  X$ = X$ + Chr$(c)
  Next i

Rapidly put together, so not elegant, but it works!

Edit: damn this forum software. The 'list' function destroys my indents, as above, but 'code' changes my < and > symbols - can't win! .. this is the 'code' version:
[code:1]a$ = "Lbh fgnegrq jvgu guerr qbbef, oruvaq gurz jrer gjb tbngf naq bar pne. Lbh unir cvpxrq bar, naq gura gur ubfg, JUB XABJF JURER GUR PNE VF, bcraf nabgure gb erirny n tbng. Lbh ner evtug gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq bar bs gur gjb qbbef jvgu n tbng. Cebonovyvgl gjb guveqf. Lbh ner jebat gb fjvgpu vs lbh bevtvanyyl cvpxrq gur qbbe jvgu gur pne. Cebonovyvgl bar guveq. Fvzcyrf."
b$ = ""
For i = 1 To Len(a$)
b = Asc(Mid$(a$, i, 1))
If b > 96 And b < 123 Then
c = b + 13
If c > 122 Then c = c - 26
ElseIf b > 64 And b < 91 Then
c = b + 13
If c > 90 Then c = c - 26
Else
c = b
End If
X$ = X$ + Chr$(c)
Next i[/code:1]
Kind Regards, John

 

[EFLImpudence]

Or

 

[JohnW2]

Actually it can be explained very clearly, in a way which is simple, and intuitive. I won't spoil the fun for anybody who hasn't tried the puzzle, so if you haven't, don't decipher this:

What you have written (in code) is surely just a statement of the obvious. It doesn't answer the question (THE question) as to whether the contestant (who obviously doesn't know what was behind the door he first picked) would,or would not, be better to swap!

In fact, what youve written (in code) is so obvious that I don't think it would do any harm to post the decoded version, so everyone knows what we are talking about!

Kind Regards, John

 

[ban-all-sheds]

For the lazy amongst thsoe who can't be bothered to do it in their heads, try the following

Personally I'd suggest Googling for an online translator where you paste in your block of text.

(in BASIC, since that's probably the most universally-undesrood language, but it can easily be adapted to ansy other language.

Did you mean ANSI?

 

[ebee]

Well at least it`s not in "EGG language" or "Unwineese".

 

[ban-all-sheds]

What you have written (in code) is surely just a statement of the obvious. It doesn't answer the question (THE question) as to whether the contestant (who obviously doesn't know what was behind the door he first picked) would,or would not, be better to swap!

So it tells him the probability of it being better to swap, and the probability of it not being better, and one of those numbers is larger than the other, and that doesn't tell him whether it is better to swap or not swap?

Not sure I see that....

 

[JohnW2]

Personally I'd suggest Googling for an online translator where you paste in your block of text.

I confess that I did that first (just like ebee and EFLI), but thought I'd then have five minutes of fun

(in BASIC, since that's probably the most universally-undesrood language, but it can easily be adapted to ansy other language.

Did you mean ANSI?

No, I didn't. You know what I meant

Kind Regards, John

 

[ebee]

Better to swap because it doubles your chances of winning.
You could still win or lose by swapping or not swapping but by swapping you turn the odds "upside-down"

 

[EFLImpudence]

Isn't it that if you are doing it many times it is better to swap every time - law of averages - and therefore it must follow that it is better to swap even if you are doing it only once - even though, obviously, you may still lose?