Until we have left the EU, everything is just a prediction. Now, why don’t you spell out your predictions of exactly how you think we are going to suffer after a no deal Brexit. At least we can refer back to them to see whether your predictions were right or wrong
What you say might, at first glance seem sensible.
However you are conflating 2 different things and calling them the same.
In a no deal scenario, here are some facts:
EU trade:
Border controls
Rules of origin checks
Paperwork
Delays
WTO
damaging tariffs
most favoured nation status
Both:
Loss of 759 worldwide trade deals built over 40 plus year
Loss of negotiating strength due to smaller country
Loss of negotiating strength because UK will have 0 trade deals and will need something to continue trade.
And:
Years of damage to business because the UK will have to spends so much time developing trade alliances.
The above are 100% fact.
Given that there are zero tangible benefits of having no trade deals, the result can only be negative.
I agree it isnt possible to calculate the exact cost in specific monetary terms, but sector by sector, industry by industry, the business damage and cost can be analysed.
A no deal Brexit is not a single event, it is the start of a long process. The most optomistic option is that the imnediate shock will get the UK back to the negotiating table with the EU.
