D
durhamplumber
You are the one making trivia of it.not me...You are the one quoting economic benefits from 600k people dieing in bloody agony...not me
UK Policy of tackling covid through herd immunity
- Thread starter SirGalahad
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The death rates that are being quoted are cherry picked according the WHO. They are not total and based on rates when people are being treated. Prior to that it seems to be around 4% ie 1 in 25,
There is a complication
https://www.ft.com/content/5a2ffc78-6550-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5
Italy is having to decide who gets them, probably the same elsewhere and surprise surprise the UK's response seems a little woolly.
Self isolate totally for a month - what are people expected to do - starve instead ?
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I'll be shopping for my parents, many charities are already getting out to find out who might need help with food. People won't starve - the greatest risk is probably for younger people who lose their income - most over 70s are in retirement and at least have a steady pension coming in.
Cannot open the FT link, paywall.
The best morbidity rate I've seen is 1%, which is still 600,000 people. In China, they said 15% of over 80s are dying. The UK has 3.2 million aged 80 and over, so that could be 480,000 if they all catch it.
The government is not being open about their plan, but it seems very much it is to isolate the most vulnerable and let it spread to everybody else. Kids and young people are not being badly effected, keeping schools open will allow it to spread and hopefully peak in the summer, and by winter most people would have had it, recovered and developed immunity, to then safe to to let the over 70s out again. But they won't spell it out to us as people get upset and complain - but that is clearly what they are currently planning.
Cannot open the FT link, paywall.
The best morbidity rate I've seen is 1%, which is still 600,000 people. In China, they said 15% of over 80s are dying. The UK has 3.2 million aged 80 and over, so that could be 480,000 if they all catch it.
The government is not being open about their plan, but it seems very much it is to isolate the most vulnerable and let it spread to everybody else. Kids and young people are not being badly effected, keeping schools open will allow it to spread and hopefully peak in the summer, and by winter most people would have had it, recovered and developed immunity, to then safe to to let the over 70s out again. But they won't spell it out to us as people get upset and complain - but that is clearly what they are currently planning.
S
sodthisforfun
I read last night that they're responding to criticism about not explaining stuff and will do a daily update on the telly. Someone senior from gov will speak.
The link is about ventilators and obtaining more. No paywall via google. Germany for instance has ordered 10,000. The responses to getting more elsewhere varies. Italy is having to cherry pick who does get one and who doesn't. There has been a suggestion on TV news that past 65 people in Italy wont get one.They too are trying to get more.
Your wrong. They are trying to flatten the curve as they keep pointing out and realise that some will die what ever they do. We are also being managed by "behaviourists", experts in that field. Their idea seems a bit warped to me but essentially they seem to feel that early restrictions on movement etc wont work as eventually people will get fed up of it. Sick view that is probably not entirely true - once people experience direct effects they will be more likely to accept it. Younger people who think they wont need a ventilator may in some cases be in for a big surprise more likely the older they get. They have been vary clear about how infections can develop and some are trying to figure out why it varies.
There are all sorts of retired people about. I went to an uncles 90th birthday recently. Apart from being more overweight he is just the same as he has always been. His wife died 5 years ago but he still looks after himself and his house etc. Another uncle who is now 95 was there. Much the same but starting to get heart problems and needs a pill a day. There a loads of people over 70 that are much the same and never ever had any contact with a charity of any sort other than maybe helping out - foodbanks etc.My wife does, all of the people who work their are similar. They are the only people who have the time to do it. So what is the Gov going to do - issue a list of people that may need help and then get more people to go round and check? The food supply chain is also in a mess due to stockpiling . Like most things it's run on a just in time basis and in this case lots comes in from the EU. We can not feed ourselves.
It seems some countries are doing various things about loss of income and helping prevent companies going broke.
actually I wonder if living on sub £100 a week might be good for some as they would realise what it's like for people who have no choice. Some people just get a basic state pension. My nan did.
Your wrong. They are trying to flatten the curve as they keep pointing out and realise that some will die what ever they do. We are also being managed by "behaviourists", experts in that field. Their idea seems a bit warped to me but essentially they seem to feel that early restrictions on movement etc wont work as eventually people will get fed up of it. Sick view that is probably not entirely true - once people experience direct effects they will be more likely to accept it. Younger people who think they wont need a ventilator may in some cases be in for a big surprise more likely the older they get. They have been vary clear about how infections can develop and some are trying to figure out why it varies.
There are all sorts of retired people about. I went to an uncles 90th birthday recently. Apart from being more overweight he is just the same as he has always been. His wife died 5 years ago but he still looks after himself and his house etc. Another uncle who is now 95 was there. Much the same but starting to get heart problems and needs a pill a day. There a loads of people over 70 that are much the same and never ever had any contact with a charity of any sort other than maybe helping out - foodbanks etc.My wife does, all of the people who work their are similar. They are the only people who have the time to do it. So what is the Gov going to do - issue a list of people that may need help and then get more people to go round and check? The food supply chain is also in a mess due to stockpiling . Like most things it's run on a just in time basis and in this case lots comes in from the EU. We can not feed ourselves.
It seems some countries are doing various things about loss of income and helping prevent companies going broke.
actually I wonder if living on sub £100 a week might be good for some as they would realise what it's like for people who have no choice. Some people just get a basic state pension. My nan did.
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It seems some countries are doing various things about loss of income and helping prevent companies going broke.
Yeah, but £100 a week / £400 a month stat sick pay won't pay the mortgage, council tax, utility bills ... my council tax and gas electric comes to £340 a month!
They're playing eenie meenie miny mo, with regards to who to treat, in other countries, so why would you advocate following their strategy?
I cannot understand why they need to brief daily. The govt and their experts have been clear on the UK strategy. Try and live as normal, wash your hands regularly, those with a cough/headache to self isolate for 7 days, , do not panic buy and the govt will advise when their modelling suggests the time is right to close schools and go into lockdown. The govt have now stated that the 70+ will be advised to self isolate first, but not yet.
The only confusion is by the media who continue to headline Armageddon, empty shelves and UK DEATHS DOUBLE IN 24HRS (ie 10 to 20!!), etc, etc etc.
And stop asking the question why other countries have gone into lockdown now and we haven't. Its because the science/medical advice/modelling for the UK suggests no reason to......yet.
this guy thinks Chris Whittle is wrong
daniel falush
@DanielFalush
Statistical genetics of bacteria, humans etc. Professor, Institute Pasteur Shanghai
During the chief medical officer's testimony to the house of commons select committee, he makes very telling mistakes about this. He says that there is 20% herd immunity in Wuhan.
And unfortunately, tragically, this error is driving UK policy right now. We need social distancing measures to be strong enough and effective enough to bring R0 below 1 across Europe. As this happens, we can rebuild our freedoms again.
Adam Kuchaski, one of the UK modellers involved in the government response estimates that 95% of the population of Wuhan was still naive at the end of january.
daniel falush
@DanielFalush
Statistical genetics of bacteria, humans etc. Professor, Institute Pasteur Shanghai
During the chief medical officer's testimony to the house of commons select committee, he makes very telling mistakes about this. He says that there is 20% herd immunity in Wuhan.
And unfortunately, tragically, this error is driving UK policy right now. We need social distancing measures to be strong enough and effective enough to bring R0 below 1 across Europe. As this happens, we can rebuild our freedoms again.
Adam Kuchaski, one of the UK modellers involved in the government response estimates that 95% of the population of Wuhan was still naive at the end of january.
Which experts such as the geneticist Daniel Falush, say is based on incorrect hypothesis
S
sodthisforfun
Don't shoot the messenger!
because businesses, events management etc need to have updates at this critical time.
over the weekend we have had sporting events ignoring government advice and cancelling events
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Whats UK strategy when you dont have capacity. We have less ICU beds per head of population so what you think we will do?
Callous to call it a game but I suppose it comes with the territory.
As to herd immunity which your defending. Looks like Matt Hancock is walking that back today briefing.
Q: What has changed between Friday, when the chief scientific adviser said the government wanted to build up herd immunity, and Sunday, when Matt Hancock said that was not policy?
The spokesman says he does not accept the premise of the question. He says going for herd immunity has not been government policy. He says he made that clear at a briefing on Friday.
So tell me what mental gymnastics you are going to use now?
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Which is why the Scientists are asking to peer review the Government model.
What harm is there in getting them checked out?