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That's done it.

Brigadier said:
The situation is changing day by day.
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but you can't think of a change in circumstance that causes a change in government strategy.

Obviously "the numbers of people infected, in hospital, and dying, continues to increase as expected" is not a change.
 
JohnD said:
Obviously "the numbers of people infected, in hospital, and dying, continues to increase as expected" is not a change.
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While the Gov know how many are in hospital, and how many are dying, they still do not know how many are infected. But, given the massed gatherings over the weekend, their previous guesstimates have probably been assessed as being too low.


JohnD said:
but you can't think of a change in circumstance that causes a change in government strategy.
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The reported widespread ignorance of the "please practice social distancing", in fact the apparent ramping up of gatherings at the weekend.
 
We have the advantage of seeing disease progression and citizen behaviour in other countries, such as Italy, that are ahead of us. I don't see anything happening here that is different from what has already happened. No foresight required.

rate of spread... much the same

panic buying... yep

People partying... yep

people moving to holiday homes or other regions, and spreading the disease... yep.

Denial and inaction by politicians... just the same.

Inaccurate figures due to insufficient testing... definitely
 
JohnD said:
I don't see how that's a change in circumstance that causes a change in government strategy.

Got any more?
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Playing devils advocate, it could simply be that the numbers or the public perception had reached a threshold where it made sense to change the strategy. Edit: or even move to a next planned stage in he same strategy.

Or they realised that they'd be crucified by the court of public opinion and changed their minds.
 
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ReganAndCarter said:
Hmm. Experts.

Wasn't the Titanic designed by experts?
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So were the moon landings. So was the Clifton Suspension Bridge. So was the Channel Tunnel. So was the Concorde. So was the mobile phone. So was the bouncing bomb. So was Satnav. So was your computer. So was the Y2K solution. So was the Wonderbra. So was the Marshall Plan.

The Titanic was also crewed with a lookout who had no binoculars because they'd been locked away, and a captain who wrongly thought his ship was unsinkable and that there were no dangerous icebergs in his path.

No system is foolproof because fools are so ingenious.
 
Look at the shape of the curves. There is some variance, but they're generally following about the same trajectory. UK is two weeks behind Italy. Is it going in the same direction, or a different one? If you'd looked at the curves two weeks ago, would you have known about where UK would be today?

Today look at the French line. Can you guess about where UK will be in one week?

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As restrictions were imposed it had unintended side effects..
It would have been bonkers to implement last nights restrictions 2 weeks ago.
The world has to isolate together and there are so many countries doing hardly anything right now.
 
motorbiking said:
As restrictions were imposed it had unintended side effects..
It would have been bonkers to implement last nights restrictions 2 weeks ago.
The world has to isolate together and there are so many countries doing hardly anything right now.
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Why? Locking down early whilst there hasn't been a chance for it to get spread is the best time to do it.
 
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