Big Numbers today

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

R5L now.

Dr Chris Smith ; University of Cambridge virologist.

Taking about when the 'rona may have started.
Discussing the French case who was gravely ill in mid December 2019, and how he may have contracted it in mid November.

Then went on to data that no one has yet explained : that harvard researchers had examined satellite images of the hospital carparks in Wuhan in October 2019. The carparks were rammed, whereas in previous October's, they were quiet.

He then questioned why, in an area where a pandemic broke out, the hospitals were very full a month before the Chinese said the virus even existed.......

It's been basically rubbished.
It hasn't been peer reviewed and its methodology has been challenged by independent scientists.

There's been criticism of a study from the US suggesting that the coronavirus could have been present in the Chinese city of Wuhan as early as August last year.

What about the number of cars?
Across the six hospitals, the Harvard study reported a rise in cars in hospital parking lots from August to December 2019.

However, we've found some serious flaws in their analysis.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-53005768​

 

[ajohn]

The now old chestnut again. Mid December is well into the flu period for Europe so some could get very similar symptoms - end ones anyway.

The search results are more interesting. There were very low level cases of respiratory problems prior to China deciding there was an outbreak in Wuhan. They go back to the 12th August. So why bother to try some obscure smoking gun when anyone can look at the data China provided. Shaking my head in sorrow I'll post it again. Notice where they decided they had an outbreak.

What can be seen from the 12/8 is an epidemic curve. So in theory some one could have caught it earlier but they would have been extremely unlucky and would have needed to be there and probably have used the seafood market. To be honest I think the west would have no chance at all of catching on that quickly - China and others have previous experience so close monitoring etc is ready and waiting. The graph shows people who had symptoms. There will be some that didn't. Our lot from the news are now desperate to find out if asymptomatic can pass it on. Given how quickly it spreads I feel they must be able to as the people who do have are a much smaller proportion of the population. Masks, masks, masks, masks. Well at least they have introduced them in hospitals and on public transport.

 

[Vinty]

When you have respected institutions like Harvard University indulging in what are basically conspiracy theories, it isn't hard to understand why so many people have lost faith in the so called establishment.

Satellite images alone prove nothing, go back to the run up to the Iraq war, satellite images of a baby milk factory were claimed to be a chemical weapons facilty by Tony Blair and other "experts".

 

[ajohn]

Face covering UK style other than Wales who it seems now say 3 layer due to the effect they have on distance. Evidence that they reduce spread mentioned by SAGE.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng/how-to-wear-and-make-a-cloth-face-covering

 

[ajohn]

Tony Blair

Tony Blare passed the report on to the USA, MI6 generated it.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

The search results are more interesting.

What were the 'research' searching for?

What can be seen from the 12/8 is an epidemic curve.

You're having a laugh. No-one can possibly see the beginnings of a curve until more of the curve is revealed.
Until early January, it looks like a straight line to me.
Only in mid-January does it become obvious that a curve is developing.

 

[ajohn]

What were the 'research' searching for?


You're having a laugh. No-one can possibly see the beginnings of a curve until more of the curve is revealed.
Until early January, it looks like a straight line to me.
Only in mid-January does it become obvious that a curve is developing.

Go find details of how they generally spread from the start rather than assuming you are clever.

 

[ajohn]

Early one some people were saying that curve was impossible due to thinking it in the same way as dazzler is. They soon dropped that.

 

[IT Minion]

What were the 'research' searching for?


You're having a laugh. No-one can possibly see the beginnings of a curve until more of the curve is revealed.
Until early January, it looks like a straight line to me.
Only in mid-January does it become obvious that a curve is developing.

That's the effect of plotting on a linear scale. When you zoom in it is probably a lot more clear but it gets drowned out by the later datums. Log scales FTW.

 

[ajohn]

There are 2 problems. One applies to all similar things. Just because R is 2.5 the first one with it might infect any number of people. It's random and R can't be calculated until numbers have gone up and there is a definite trend and the doubling time comes in then - seem to remember we hit 3 days, maybe a bit less.

The initial infections are random. Bit like tossing a coin. Some one might do that 10 times and say 50 50 heads and tails is rubbish. Get 100 people to do it and it will be close to 50 - 50. I have seen that demonstrated. Increasing number always tends to get rid of randomness if there is some law there. The same thing can be seen in numbers they have calculated from samples - they have a statistical range because the samples are so small. They did show that range in them recently but news etc tends to only mention what they see as the centre figure

The other problem which is probably the worst aspect of CV19 is that actual epidemic isn't being seen. Only people who needed treatment. More randomness.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Go find details of how they generally spread from the start rather than assuming you are clever.

What the heck are you on about?
I asked how you can identify a curve from such a small amount of data early on, when it is impossible to see the beginnings of the curve.
And you start talking about how the virus is spread. It is not in the slightest bit relevant to identifying a curve from such a small amount of data.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Early one some people were saying that curve was impossible due to thinking it in the same way as dazzler is. They soon dropped that.

It is impossible to identify a curve when you only have such a small amount of data.
It is only when you have sufficient data to create the curve can you be aware it is developing. Then you can see in hindsight, that the curve was developing. But while it is developing, in its early stages, it is simply impossible to see it as a curve.

Do I really need to construct a spreadsheet to prove my point?

Who is 'some people'? And who is 'they'?

And what was it that the Harvard researchers were searching for?

The search results are more interesting.

 

[motorbiking]

and thanks a bunch Britain for giving the world NVCJD.

have you had a meat pie since 1990?

Did the UK try to hide it? has it killed 1/2 a million people. In France they are still trying to hide it today.

 

[JohnD]

Do you mean this bit?

"In the UK, the primary cause of vCJD has been eating beef tainted with bovine spongiform encephalopathy.[8] A 2012 study by the Health Protection Agency showed that around 1 in 2,000 people in the UK shows signs of abnormal prion accumulation.[9]

Joanthan D. Quick, M.D. instructor of medicine at the Department of Global Health and Social Medicine at Harvard Medical School, states that bovine spongiform encephalopathy or BSE is the first man-made epidemic, or "Frankenstein" disease, because a human decision to feed meat and bone meal to previously herbivorous cattle (as a source of protein) caused what was previously an animal pathogen to enter into the human food chain, and from there to begin causing humans to contract vCJD."

thanks

 

[motorbiking]

Did we cover it up?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/yes-we-had-mad-cow-disease-too-france-confesses-6927256.html