Big Numbers today

[motorbiking]

I think this is lobbying.. I can't see a Judicial review being successful at anything other than getting pressure on the govt to scrap the policy.
Quarantine is fine as long as most states with a good record are exempt.

 

[ajohn]

Not heard what Korea, Singapore and China are doing lately but as far as I know 14days isolation for all but think their gov sorts it out as New Zealand did from early on. It could be done here by booking sufficient hotels.

Korea was testing while arrivals waited but dropped it and from reports now fit people with an asbo bracelet to make sure they do. Korea was insisting that arrivals loaded there rather thorough tracking app or were refused entry.

It's a tricky one really. Uk tourism flat out means a lot of people. Business not so many. Business really could be sorted by Zoom etc but people are not used to working that way. The company my brother works for tried it years ago. He said it didn't work out. He does the tendering usually face to face often with other tenderers around as well. He can cope with that but not via video. Seems our gov can't either - pity as I have noticed that rants don't come over very well via Zoom so it might have stopped them from doing it.

People who come to work here don't seem to mind so the rest are the real problem. That needs balancing with the trouble they may cause with infections bearing in mind anyone on a plane with it may well infect others. The carriers have already mentioned that recirculated air is something of a worry and makes distancing ineffective - argued that way as it suits them as does air bridges.

Some people who want to holiday out of the UK say ok I'll isolate when I come back. Some wont want to go this year. I have that problem. A side effect might mean fully booked UK holidays every where. That solves a problem in some respects as I think tourist arrivals will drop off anyway.

My problem holiday in September involves flights and time travelling around on a ship stopping off at various places. Booked via a German travel agent we have used a lot. They decide if it's still on in July. Neither of us are very keen now.

Just thought - I wonder what covid hospitalisation holiday insurance costs will be.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

One interesting statistic seems to be that Sweden has a similar per capita death rate as us - except they didn't have a ruinous lockdown. Gives the impression that our lockdown was bungled.

The demographic of Sweden is substantially different to UK:

The three largest cities are Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö. Approximately 85% of the country's population resides in villages with 200 persons or cities.[clarification needed][3] Six out of ten Swedes do not live in an urban system with 50,000+ inhabitants,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden
​

The population density of Sweden is 23 people per Km²
The population density of UK is 274 per Km²

 

[ajohn]

The UK's population centres are rather close together as well. A factor I think they should have considered. Rumour has it that if Scotland had become independent the rest of the UK would have been the most densely populated country in Europe some Welsh want out as well.

 

[motorbiking]

What we know is:
- Its fatal for old people 50% deaths over 90, 80% of deaths over 75 - so countries with old people are going to get high numbers
- it likes people with underlying health problems (e.g. diabetes, heart disease) we rank #1 for countries with over 1M population
- It likes densely populated areas (as above) and that is skewed by the fact that 60% live in London. SE
- It like BAMEs

While other countries in Europe can tick some of the above boxes, few can tick all.

We haven't faired well, but I don't see how this could be down to strategy etc, without leveraging hindsight. When this thread started, we were focusing on building ventilators. They are currently only 10% utilised for CoViD.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

What we know is:
- Its fatal for old people 50% deaths over 90, 80% of deaths over 75 - so countries with old people are going to get high numbers
- it likes people with underlying health problems (e.g. diabetes, heart disease) we rank #1 for countries with over 1M population
- It likes densely populated areas (as above) and that is skewed by the fact that 60% live in London. SE
- It like BAMEs

While other countries in Europe can tick some of the above boxes, few can tick all.

We haven't faired well, but I don't see how this could be down to strategy etc, without leveraging hindsight. When this thread started, we were focusing on building ventilators. They are currently only 10% utilised for CoViD.

Hindsight was available to UK government, the experience of other countries.
They chose to either ignore it, or not to research it. They chose to solely rely on their own advisors and their own political agenda, created by their own political ideology.

 

[motorbiking]

what should they have done with what they knew at the time?

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

what should they have done with what they knew at the time?

Is that the right question?
Shouldn't you ask, "what did they know at the time?"
Or even, "What could they have known at the time?"

This was the (albeit) subliminal message in my comment.

 

[motorbiking]

I'm not sure having a good think about things and doing lots of what if analysis would have helped. The government clearly had a window to act based on what they could see was happening. What should they have done differently?

We do not yet know if countries with early strict lockdown, that have so far escaped high death rates will actually escape once people start to move about more freely. Unless the virus is irradiated, hiding from it, just delays the inevitable. Your only hope is that treatment improves when it eventually hits you.

 

[Notch7]

What should they have done differently?

not wasted time with herd immunity strategy.


stopped sporting events and mass gatherings earlier.
ordered PPE from those many companies that contacted the govt and were ignored.


most of all this government should have spent the time being honest instead of playing numbers games along with spin and misinformation -I could accept the bad figures better if the government hadnt tried to hide it.

 

[Notch7]

We do not yet know if countries with early strict lockdown, that have so far escaped high death rates will actually escape once people start to move about more freely. Unless the virus is irradiated, hiding from it, just delays the inevitable. Your only hope is that treatment improves when it eventually hits you.

that's your argument for supporting this governments strategy
-but the countries that acted faster and harder have come out of lockdown earlier.
-none of the countries so far have had a huge second spike

you argue that its only 'delaying the inevitable', well its reasonable to say lockdown measures were vital otherwise the NHS would have been overwhelmed, therefore the argument for a much harder, faster lockdown would have been a better strategy -delaying only meant the inevitable larger number of deaths and a much more difficult release from lockdown.

 

[motorbiking]

I don't support the govt strategy - I think they are easing lockdown too slowly and I think the Quarantine strategy is a ruse to force people to book UK holidays rather than spending their hard earned (and furlough) cash overseas.

How many died as result of PPE shortages? Healthcare workers are not over represented in the data.

"not wasted time with herd immunity strategy" - what other strategy do we have? stay in lockdown until a cure is developed?

I think a few social gatherings could have been stopped. I was at a 12,000 strong conference in Feb and we knew what was coming then. We didn't know it was already likely to be here and we didn't know it was going to be more deadly than flu.

 

[ajohn]

I don't think there is any doubt some thoughts were aimed at herd immunity and probably the economy as well. However when action was called for in the house the reply was behaviourists and requests for the information that provided was denied. I'd hope that wasn't some deaths needed to get people to take it seriously. Maybe it was but conditions produced more of an overshoot than expected. Temper that with Boris and hand shaking. That ties in with get some more infected / not taking it seriously / accepting the consequences.

Deaths - be careful as people were treated that had been in care homes etc. Some were also deemed to be not worth taking to hospital. Ambulance drivers had to make decisions at one point. There were some you aren't bad enough yet who died at home. No info on how many in these areas. Excess death is very high. 64k ??? I think.

Factors that increase chances of death are kidney, liver, heart and diabetes which often fits in with obesity especially being pre diabetic. Then comes age, the main one. They are quiet on BAME as they want to try and include all factors and it sounds like they didn't look that closely for a while.

The care home problem looked at in detail may well turn out to be lack of PPE for the people who work there and maybe isolation problems. Testing too once it took hold.

The whole idea of what is being done is to reduce the probability of becoming infected. The end game is better treatment or a vaccine but if chances are low deaths accumulate far more slowly. Eg Korea etc. Have to wonder about the standard of treatment provided as well. They have had problems from lack of equipment other than ventilators. No country really gives any idea of how well various groups of the population have been isolated.

Maybe the best way of looking at deaths is this one. 45 seems to relate to more chance of a longer stay in hospital.

Last 3 may change, It's been updated to include Pillar 2 testing (lab rather than NHS) Posted due to Motorbiking's post. Might do something similar with where the UK's population is as well. Only because I have some doubts about certain numbers that have been mentioned in various places. Not sure if there is anything more granular on deaths.

There is also reason to wonder why distancing seems to have worked more effectively in some places but the post is long enough.

 

[Deleted2797112]

Ambulance drivers had to make decisions at one point.

"Ambulance drivers" don't decide who goes to hospital and who doesn't.

 

[motorbiking]

I think the care home thing is more complex. We had a strategy to eject "bed blockers" from hospitals to free up space. In fact we sent people to care homes infected with Covid.