UK death toll is bigger than Official figures show

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It seems we have more deaths than are officially being reported.

ONS figures

The statistics - which only cover the period up until March 20 - show 210 deaths in England and Wales, where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

These compare to the 170 deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales over the same period.

The significant timelag, with this data falling some 11 days behind, means officials are braced to see a far higher spike in coming weeks.

Until now daily figures have only counted those in hospital, and show growing time lag approaching three weeks in some cases

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales


Questions over true death toll as hospital records almost three times more deaths than official figures show

Channel 4 News reported that an email sent to staff at one of London's biggest hospitals suggested the daily tally, made public by the Government, did not tally with the actual number killed by Covid-19.

The message, sent to staff at King's College Hospital Trust, said: "The number of deaths reported at King's in national figures is below what they are experiencing. It is not just King's but a number of other trusts, and the centre has been made aware."



Covid-19 on 210 death certificates in England and Wales by 20 March

The ONS has published the first of its new weekly bulletin which will include all instances where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate and will include non-hospital deaths.

A total of 210 deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to and including 20 March (and which were registered up to 25 March) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics.

This compares with 170 coronavirus-related deaths reported by NHS England and Public Health Wales up to and including March 20.

A quick note on the difference between the figures published by the ONS and those that have been published thus far by NHS England and Public Health Wales:

The ONS death figures are based on the number of deaths registered in England and Wales where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate as “deaths involving Covid-19”. The number includes all deaths, not just those in hospitals, although there is usually a delay of at least five days between a death occurring and registration.

The figures published by NHS England and Public Health Wales are for deaths only among hospital patients who have tested positive for Covid-19, but include deaths that have not yet been registered.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
 
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The figures published by NHS England and Public Health Wales are for deaths only among hospital patients who have tested positive for Covid-19, but include deaths that have not yet been registered.

They answered this pretty clearly on yesterdays press conference. There is a lag in deaths being reported due to finding out why some one died. Seems it can be up to 2 weeks or so. Later they reported a number of deaths, small number down to underlying causes and the rest just down to the virus. So they don't report until that is settled. What wasn't asked is if the public health england tally is all deaths no matter why while being treated for the virus. I suspect it does.
 
They answered this pretty clearly on yesterdays press conference. There is a lag in deaths being reported due to finding out why some one died. Seems it can be up to 2 weeks or so. Later they reported a number of deaths, small number down to underlying causes and the rest just down to the virus. So they don't report until that is settled. What wasn't asked is if the public health england tally is all deaths no matter why while being treated for the virus. I suspect it does.

Official figures only cover deaths only among hospital patients who have tested positive for Covid-19. Not from primary care or in the community.

Why someone died is on the DC. You don't report on suspicions, you leave that to the coroner if Dr is unable or unwilling to sign DC.
 
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Anomalies will exist in all countries reporting, whilst accepting none of the numbers will be 100% accurate I am still going to take them as comparative.

Looking at the average deaths per day over the past 3 days (up to 30 march) some countries are showing a little hope. Spain is struggling
covdeaths31.gif
 
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There is a lot of concentration on daily death rates but really the important aspect is what the total is when it's over. The current lock down will reduce dailies if it works as it should as it will also reduce hospital entries. Worst case total could be calculated from statistics assuming everybody gets it. That is a tricky area. They have recently said that if they can keep it under 20,000 they would be doing really well - making the point it's up to us.

I'm also not keen on how the hospital entry statistics are reported as it could cause people to think they are likely to be ok. The figures are not per head of population in a given area. For instance I did a quick sum on Wales and at the time it wasn't that significantly different to B'ham. Something like 360 compared with 300 odd from memory. A tiny area Milton Keynes that reported separately 220 or so. London at the time was 515. B'ham had increase rather rapidly at this point. The change in the per NHS area statistics over a couple of weeks was also dramatic. Many had single figures for a while. The population figures for those have gone due to changes. This is probaly due to blurring due to hospital specialities where some one may need to go into another area for certain treatments.
 
There have been 47 deaths in Scotland spread across all the health boards since this started. Hardly enough to overwhelm undertakers. More likely they have reduced staff numbers due to self-isolating / distancing. No conspiracy here, move on.
I don't think this is fair.

This time of year is stupidly busy anyway, without the virus. We don't know the set up around JohnD's friend (sorry to hear about it John) and it's a conspiracy?

My dad died 22nd Jan. Wasn't able to get him cremated until 5th March down in Cornwall because they were so busy - that's before any of this virus took hold in the UK. There's only a couple of crematoriums that cover a vast area where my dad lived.
 
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Exactly. It's a busy times of year anyway and they have less staff. There is no conspiracy over hidden deaths, undertakers being swamped with virus deaths.
I don't think John said that there were any? He was relaying a voice message.

Yes over less staff. All of the staff at my dads funeral directors were over 70, including the owner and my local funeral home is also staffed by people past retirement.. I would imagine that being advised to stay at home because of the virus will impact many a funeral home, just when they will be needed the most.
 
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