One interesting statistic seems to be that Sweden has a similar per capita death rate as us - except they didn't have a ruinous lockdown. Gives the impression that our lockdown was bungled.
Big Numbers today
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If CoViD is going to be here a few years, the Swidish model is the only model that is sustainable. If its a 6-9 month thing then Lockdown might have saved lives.
Based on yesterday's data we escaped net increase by the skin of our teeth 3.4% reduction week on week.
Based on yesterday's data we escaped net increase by the skin of our teeth 3.4% reduction week on week.
D
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And in the next few weeks, we're probably not going to escape by the skin of our teeth based on the idiotic scenes over the last few days. It was already becoming fragile. Probably broken now.
those countries that imposed early lockdowns have come out much sooner.
South Korea never had a lockdown.
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It seems some used shifts at times to allow people to work. Korea have also made some changes - 14days isolation on arrival for instance. They did try a very rapid test on arrivals. There have been reports of people being fitted with tracking bracelets to make sure they isolate as well. All or some, don't know. Same things sometimes used with asbo's and early prison release etc. 
We have the facility but maybe a world shortage of bracelets. Their tracking uses all sorts of info.
Here we are wrapped up in R numbers There have been a few virologists saying hang on a minute when it's this low. It's essentially intended to get an idea of how infectuous a disease is when it's running riot. The brief mentioned probability more recently and falling numbers, that a lot more often. They get the probability aspects from surveys, have had it etc. The spread of cases does vary in the regions. Both of the N regions are over 500 per 100,000. Highest in the country. Lowest is the SW 213 per 100,000. The others apart from one are 300's odd per 100,000. The one in between Yorkshire and Humber is 430 per 100,000. This along with sampling gives them some idea what is going on. Some think they need much bigger samples though as it reduces the statistical spread.
They had the man introduced earlier as SAGE's virus mapping man on the box today agreeing with Dispatches. Earlier lock down would have reduced deaths. Matt Hancock immediately comes on and says scientists disagree and we follow the consensus. Mapping man says we didn't have sufficient information really. I think I know exactly what he means from reading some of the official info that's about. It lacks precautions against unknowns. There may have been some distrust of figures from China but that may just relate to asymptomatic making real numbers of infections higher. In short it's a fact based route as per China. On the face of it they could have locked down earlier as well but spent time finding out exactly what it did. Part of that was monitoring cases more closely when they had less than 500. Also of course some herd immunity is a standard control method that is likely to be obtained anyway - the amount depends on the number of people infected. Aiming for some is a different matter but if it gives immunity it helps by reducing the number of people who can infect others.
Korea, Singapore - they were ready. China probably had the same facilities as well.There are some amazing fines for not behaving. Not sure what China does.
We have the facility but maybe a world shortage of bracelets. Their tracking uses all sorts of info.Here we are wrapped up in R numbers There have been a few virologists saying hang on a minute when it's this low. It's essentially intended to get an idea of how infectuous a disease is when it's running riot. The brief mentioned probability more recently and falling numbers, that a lot more often. They get the probability aspects from surveys, have had it etc. The spread of cases does vary in the regions. Both of the N regions are over 500 per 100,000. Highest in the country. Lowest is the SW 213 per 100,000. The others apart from one are 300's odd per 100,000. The one in between Yorkshire and Humber is 430 per 100,000. This along with sampling gives them some idea what is going on. Some think they need much bigger samples though as it reduces the statistical spread.
They had the man introduced earlier as SAGE's virus mapping man on the box today agreeing with Dispatches. Earlier lock down would have reduced deaths. Matt Hancock immediately comes on and says scientists disagree and we follow the consensus. Mapping man says we didn't have sufficient information really. I think I know exactly what he means from reading some of the official info that's about. It lacks precautions against unknowns. There may have been some distrust of figures from China but that may just relate to asymptomatic making real numbers of infections higher. In short it's a fact based route as per China. On the face of it they could have locked down earlier as well but spent time finding out exactly what it did. Part of that was monitoring cases more closely when they had less than 500. Also of course some herd immunity is a standard control method that is likely to be obtained anyway - the amount depends on the number of people infected. Aiming for some is a different matter but if it gives immunity it helps by reducing the number of people who can infect others.
Korea, Singapore - they were ready. China probably had the same facilities as well.There are some amazing fines for not behaving. Not sure what China does.
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Time will tell.
anyway double digits today and 32% WoW decline, hopefully the week just gone was a bad blip, impacted by reporting delays in the bank holiday.
Update 9am on the 7th,
On the 6th 286,194 people tested positive.
As they did 142,123 tests that must be results from several days. All but 1,326 of them seem to be results unavailable. Those seem to be hospital tests. NHS or patients? Pass. No wonder the ONS is complaining about the reporting.
Tests included Pillar 1,2,3,4, total
Tests 35,636 79,685 22,720 4,082 142,123
No info on Pillar 5. Mentioned and seems to be antibody, only used in the NHS. TV showed blood samples being taken for it.
On the 6th 286,194 people tested positive.
As they did 142,123 tests that must be results from several days. All but 1,326 of them seem to be results unavailable. Those seem to be hospital tests. NHS or patients? Pass. No wonder the ONS is complaining about the reporting.
Tests included Pillar 1,2,3,4, total
Tests 35,636 79,685 22,720 4,082 142,123
No info on Pillar 5. Mentioned and seems to be antibody, only used in the NHS. TV showed blood samples being taken for it.
Do you check for number updates ? I've not noticed if the reported numbers change but have noticed that the graphs do. The surveillance report indicates the most recent 3 may change. Threw me for a while but noticed that the usual report page graph does show changes like that.
The hospital entries looks like this now.
So slight drop.
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Yes every now and then I update to allow for the corrections, but I’m only interested in the trend. 1,2,3 week rolling avg, but most important is the ability to compare day of week trends. We have been averaging 20% wow reductions minus a few outliers.
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55 Deaths today, following 77 yesterday - I know that's post weekend lag, but a very positive start to the week.
I've been wanting to know what is going on with this one for some time so in need of a life enlarged a section. This is last Thursday.
It looks like small outbreaks to me. I'd say that is the concern in some areas rather than R numbers 'cause when they occur numbers grow relatively quickly compared with a more or less level line. The numbers are still very low and England over all is now at a lower level than it was in week 12. Only just though.
Ryan Air is spouting on the box at the moment - just allow planes to fly as normal etc Some countries wont allow people from the UK in. He mentioned that New Zealand quarantined arrivals early on. Too late for us it seems - according to him.
It looks like small outbreaks to me. I'd say that is the concern in some areas rather than R numbers 'cause when they occur numbers grow relatively quickly compared with a more or less level line. The numbers are still very low and England over all is now at a lower level than it was in week 12. Only just though.
Ryan Air is spouting on the box at the moment - just allow planes to fly as normal etc Some countries wont allow people from the UK in. He mentioned that New Zealand quarantined arrivals early on. Too late for us it seems - according to him.
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he's also saying the quarantine law is unenforceable. Not so sure about that. Its a piece of work..
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/568/contents/made
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/568/contents/made
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Sadly, UK is now in 4th place for the number of deaths, per million.
Beaten by Belgium, who we know record deaths suspected of Covid, whether they have been tested or not. As far as I know the only country to do so.
And San Marino and Andorra, two countries with tiny populations.
Beaten by Belgium, who we know record deaths suspected of Covid, whether they have been tested or not. As far as I know the only country to do so.
And San Marino and Andorra, two countries with tiny populations.
A couple of airways are taking the Gov to court. Ryan Air is one of them. A judge can rule against a law so hope it's not the retired one - herd immunity and those that die were not going to live much longer anyway. Forgetting of course that load more would die if they didn't get treatment due to an overloaded NHS.
Now called a judicial review.
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