New lockdown in sight

[Notch7]

If that is what soothes your brow.....

Fact is, no matter what you do, until:

- the virus nullifies itself
- we develop immunity
- we develop a vaccine (yeah, right)
- we absolutely close the borders down. Full stop.

it's gonna keep coming back.

Yes I know, Ive been banging that drum for long enough

your point is self defeating: if it isnt going away, then locking down late just means greater strain on the health service.....it doesnt mitigate your point, does it?

lockdown isnt the main or only solution, but it was done in the UK due to a lack of the other measures



The solution is mass test and trace with an economy running, like South Korea did.




"South Korea never locked down and never closed the economy"
Read more: https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/new-lockdown-in-sight.552472/page-4#ixzz6Y0yWiVw3

 

[Notch7]

Yep, Notch is wrong

Impossible

how could you say such a thing

 

[Brigadier]

Yep, Notch is wrong.

Am all for slowing the spread in a lot of ways. Don't overwhelm the NHS with cases in hospital which could still happen if we continue to get the daily case count we are getting (and it's spreading to 50-somethings now from the kids), as well as those who seem to be left with long-term side effects. Also, time allows continuing learning about the best way to treat people and perhaps, if we're really really lucky, to develop a vaccination.

A lady scientist made this very point; JS countered it as "absurd".
His position on it was that, such an approach is based on the premise that CV is the only factor in public health, and ignored the destruction of the economy (that pays for the CV treatment, as well as our way of life in general), the lack-of-treatment for any non-CV condition (my neighbour had a baby in May, and has not had a single visit to assess her or her baby's wellbeing since. She went to the health centre today, and they refused her request to weigh the baby), the effect on our childrens' education, mental health issues......
Aiming for a Pyrrhic victory, if you will.

 

[Notch7]

Agree, but his point is that now the NHS does have the capacity to deal with expected cases.
From that point-of-view, further lockdown is buying time that has already been bought.

lockdown isnt really any solution, but the UK has never had a comprehensive test trace quarantine in place.

mass testing is the only real route, that way hotspots can be found and isolated

 

[Brigadier]

Yes I know, Ive been banging that drum for long enough

your point is self defeating: if it isnt going away, then locking down late just means greater strain on the health service.....it doesnt mitigate your point, does it?

lockdown isnt the main or only solution, but it was done in the UK due to a lack of the other measures



The solution is mass test and trace with an economy running, like South Korea did.




"South Korea never locked down and never closed the economy"
Read more: https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/new-lockdown-in-sight.552472/page-4#ixzz6Y0yWiVw3

The point was repeated lockdowns have no purpose, if the first lockdown achieved its objective. Which ours supposedly did.



And South Korea is not a comparable economy to ours; highly-advanced production with heavy investment in tech., a much smaller sector reliant on bums-on-seats (restaurants, pubs, shops, etc), much smaller tourism sector (again, which dictates people wandering about, spending money).

Basically, I think through a combination of the structure of our economy, unwillingness to change, and a set of exclusions that are significant in proportion to the inclusions, our lack of viable test / track and trace, and ideology, the SK solution is not suitable for the UK.

 

[sodthisforfun]

Impossible

how could you say such a thing

It was part of a post I was going to write last night - my computer remembers despite me changing my mind

 

[sodthisforfun]

A lady scientist made this very point; JS countered it as "absurd".
His position on it was that, such an approach is based on the premise that CV is the only factor in public health, and ignored the destruction of the economy (that pays for the CV treatment, as well as our way of life in general), the lack-of-treatment for any non-CV condition (my neighbour had a baby in May, and has not had a single visit to assess her or her baby's wellbeing since. She went to the health centre today, and they refused her request to weigh the baby), the effect on our childrens' education, mental health issues......
Aiming for a Pyrrhic victory, if you will.

Perhaps. But, weighing the baby or any health visits will become even less likely if those numbers infected keeps rising because they will be taking up all the hospital beds/staff. Yes, with the youngsters where the numbers are highest, they seem to not be hospitalised but they will and are already spreading it to the 50-somethings (presumably parents) who are in the age range where people are getting hit worse and there was reports yesterday about nursing homes again.

Plus there is the funding/extra medical staff needed to cope with the long-term effects of this illness, which is affecting all age groups.

Keeping in groups of 6, washing hands/using gel, wearing a mask doesn't stop a lot of people going to work, carrying on almost normal which is happening now. We aren't in a lockdown in the true sense anymore, and haven't been in a while and the economy is starting to bounce back, presumably because of it.. Sure, it's not fun, but losing a bit of fun and freedom isn't actually that big a deal in the short term - not if it benefits many others, short and long term.

 

[JohnD]

The point was repeated lockdowns have no purpose, if the first lockdown achieved its objective. Which ours supposedly did.

the point of the first lockdown was to slow down the initial flood of infections and deaths. Which it did, although government policy of sending infected people to care homes had the opposite effect.

The first lockdown did not have the objective of eradicating the disease, and it did not do that.

So we still have it circulating, and the infection rate is rising again.

It would be foolish to believe that "repeated lockdowns have no purpose" and I doubt any intelligent person seriously believes that.

 

[JohnD]

former Justice of the Supreme Court, Lord Jonathan Sumption.

It's well-known that retired judges are experts in public health, virology and infection control. Second only to plumbers and motor mechanics.

 

[Brigadier]

The Norwegian government were reported to have stated that they wouldn't kick down again, as they could see no clear benefit in so doing.

By all means take the points up with Sumption; I was merely bringing what I thought was an interesting piece to the attention of this place.

 

[JohnD]

I speak for real life experience, don't believe half a word of the news, Facebook or "scientists" making all sort of claims.

I remember some plumber telling us that he had only met brexers and never met a person in favour of remaining in the EU.

I heard a person saying she did not believe the polls saying most people disapprove of our buffoon Prime Minister and the government's attempts to handle Brexit and CV19

Your real-life experience is naturally limited.

 

[Brigadier]

It's well-known that retired judges are experts in public health, virology and infection control. Second only to plumbers and motor mechanics.

And you? Plumber, motor mechanic, or retired judge?

 

[EFLImpudence]

Report from the local news today:

"The number of deaths recorded in Portugal between the beginning of March and the end of August has risen by almost 6,000 when compared with the same period in 2019.
Statistics show that overall, around 58,000 fatalities were recorded, with only 3 percent a direct result of Covid-19. Health authorities say that the pandemic only explains part of this increase, with a series of heat waves and increased difficulty to access the health service being blamed for the rise in mortality."

 

[Notch7]

His position on it was that, such an approach is based on the premise that CV is the only factor in public health

I think the government were very very worried about the NHS being overwhelmed so they turned NHS hospitals into single purpose covid treatment centres -and theyve been rather draconian in their apporach including maternity wards etc.

the problem is getting a balance.
We dont actually know whether there is an either or option, can we open up hospitals etc and let covid do its thing, maybe we can I dont know
Can we open up fully but keep social distancing and infection control going.

I really dont know, I can understand its very difficult for the govt to make judgement......they absolutely cant allow covid to take off again.

 

[IT Minion]

Interesting interview on a number of SARS-Cov-2 aspects this morning (starting at 1007; get it on BBC Sounds), on R5L, with former Justice of the Supreme Court, Lord Jonathan Sumption.


His stance was that lockdowns do not serve any purpose, beyond buying time for the health service to gear-up to sufficient capacity.
And, now that ours has done so, any further lockdowns merely postpone the cases until after the next easing, rather than prevent them full-stop.

He's sort of right, apart from missing the massive drop in infections (which did happen), the additional time to find treatment (1/3 fewer will die now) and getting time to find a vaccine.

Kudos for including time and program. Thanks.