Ukraine counter offensive

Rubbish, the reason has been obvious for weeks. The river crossings are all within HIMARS range and so resupply is difficult.
...and with the bridges down any kind of crossing is fraught with risk. The winter will be interesting to see how both sides endure.
 
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Military experts say they dont know the reason for the withdrawal and Russia may be setting up a trap, who knows.

I think it is to consolidate their control in the rest of the region.
Or maybe that you cannot build a 3- line defense with your back to the river? Perhaps the Chechans can't swim?
 
Russia certainly seems to have a great solution to its prison population and to be fair the claim "convict volunteers to my unit, don't go back to prison" seems to be true.
 
The ones that don't surrender to the Ukrainians are either shot by the regulars or by Khadirov's mob in the line behind. It's a bit like the WWII punishment batallions
 
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Or maybe that you cannot build a 3- line defense with your back to the river? Perhaps the Chechans can't swim?
It's very difficult, to be sure. I think von Manstein suggested withdrawing troops out of Stalingrad in a similar move before the Russian encirclement in December 1942. Hitler refused, of course, leaving Paulus no choice but to stand and fight. Even withdrawing motorised units from the urban chaos might've made a difference in the response time to the crisis; as it was by no means a certain fate once the encirclement was under way that it would succeed.
Withdrawing Russian troops from Kherson is a wise precaution.
 
Withdrawing Russian troops from Kherson is a wise precaution.
It might also turn into a very wet place. Ukraine reckon that Russia has mined a dam. The dam already has a bit of a leak as it has been hit. That is fact. The mines ????? May be what Ukraine think they may do.

Kehrson. Russis started evacuating civilians a while ago. Having seen the results of a retake that is understandable if they care about them at all. Or maybe they have other reasons. Don't want them to be drowned. Anyway it means they can pound the hell out of it if they want. Ukraine might even find they can't even occupy it to any meaningful extent.

Ukraine is targetting artillery the same was as Russia always has. Drones. They are even using commercial ones. For surveillance as well. Cheap Chinese mentioned. I'd suspect Russia does have kit that can jam transmission to those.

Footage today. Ukrainians using Grads that are older than the firers. 2 shell shots before moving now as response has speeded up. 4 or 5 has been mentioned in the past. Lots of use of drones mentioned and jets over flying. These clips seem to be arranged for the reporters at times. The reporters point out that they can not show or mention certain things.

Iranian loitering dones. If those are hitting expensive western kit I am not sure we would hear about it.

The overflying jets are a bit odd as Russia most certainly does have kit to hit those. Turkey used the same stuff once to shoot one down. ;) I've read the USA also bought one to get around their rules about selling arms to other countries. Turkey again.

Generals announcing things. No sign of Putin. The BBC broadcasted a number of these chats for a while - no sign of Putin.
 
It might also turn into a very wet place. Ukraine reckon that Russia has mined a dam. The dam already has a bit of a leak as it has been hit. That is fact. The mines ????? May be what Ukraine think they may do.

Kehrson. Russis started evacuating civilians a while ago. Having seen the results of a retake that is understandable if they care about them at all. Or maybe they have other reasons. Don't want them to be drowned. Anyway it means they can pound the hell out of it if they want. Ukraine might even find they can't even occupy it to any meaningful extent.

Ukraine is targetting artillery the same was as Russia always has. Drones. They are even using commercial ones. For surveillance as well. Cheap Chinese mentioned. I'd suspect Russia does have kit that can jam transmission to those.

Footage today. Ukrainians using Grads that are older than the firers. 2 shell shots before moving now as response has speeded up. 4 or 5 has been mentioned in the past. Lots of use of drones mentioned and jets over flying. These clips seem to be arranged for the reporters at times. The reporters point out that they can not show or mention certain things.

Iranian loitering dones. If those are hitting expensive western kit I am not sure we would hear about it.

The overflying jets are a bit odd as Russia most certainly does have kit to hit those. Turkey used the same stuff once to shoot one down. ;) I've read the USA also bought one to get around their rules about selling arms to other countries. Turkey again.

Generals announcing things. No sign of Putin. The BBC broadcasted a number of these chats for a while - no sign of Putin.
I still don't think Russian engineers will blow a hole in that dam unless they absolutely have to - if Ukrainian forces move across the Dneiper, for instance, and move with intent towards Crimea. That would be better than detonating a tactical nuke and would have the affect of slowing them down. But in doing that it would effectively prevent them from mounting offensive operations of their own. Tough call.

So yes, it looks like they're in for a cold, wet winter.
General Winter has always been a good friend for Russian troops, though, so let the green troops earn their spurs the hard way.

This kind of barrier didn't hinder the Red Army in 1944 - a couple of soldiers deserted their unit after their commanding officer made them carry him through a river crossing on their shoulders. :LOL:
Even the Pripet marshes bordering Poland didn't stop them driving tanks through on brushwood tracks - though many didn't make it and sank to a watery grave.
 
US military suggest that there have been over 200000 military casulties in this war ??

Russian casulties
Mia
Killed
Wounded

Are estimated to be in the region of 100,000 ???
 
If russia blow the Kakhovka dam now, the area that suffer's most will be the newly created defensive russian line, and if they do attack the dam it could be good news, as that means they have given up hope of keeping Kherson and are on the run, russia is now digging trenches and outposts in Crimea itself, perhaps the next defensive line?
 
It was only a few weeks ago during some ceremony that Putin said that Kherson would be Russian for ever

Putin has yet to comment on the calamity (?) and appears to have distanced his self from the decision


Leaving it entirely to the military to explain the caper

Of interest ( or not) the decision to pull out was officially announced after (?) after the US election results ??

Putin would have been hoping ?? For the republicans to have done well or better in the US elections ??
 
According to Jeremy who tends to be a decent reporter with some experience of this sort of thing has said satellite images show Russia has made use of concrete in the new defences. The attraction of blowing the dam by either side depends on where these defences are. If in certain places Ukraine might go for it. There is a lot of low level ground. More where the Russians have gone actually. Unless they have gone more north.

He also mentioned that the announcement of the withdrawal might stir up the Russian population and not in the way you might expect.

Nukes. Military types don't think that will happen. I explained why a while ago. They leave problems behind and can cause radiation problems over unpredictable areas.

Ukraine is reporting Russian soldiers taking their uniforms off and preparing for street fighting. Actually it might even be local civilians.
 
Dragons teeth in the Netherlands from World War 2

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compared to dragons teeth recently installed by the Russian army
1668112076403.png



The Dutch teeth are difficult to remove as there is no easy way to lift them, the Russian teeth appear to have a convenient lifting hook
 
There's muttering that the Russian withdrawal from the right side of the Dnieper is turning into a rout. Unconfirmed estimates of 18-22,000 troops trying to get back over the river and Ukrainian conventional tube artillery within range of the crossings.
 
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