@pete01 . Look at it as if you were the host. You're playing a game, you're going through the process to extend it, and you obviously wouldn't open the door with the car behind it. But you HAVE to open a door, that's the game. So it's not CHANCE that you open the dud door.
This is the bit of knowledge the player can use.
How would AI work this out? I believe early AI would would process all the choices and add the probablilities, taking a lot of time over it. But the later ones would do things like "smell a rat", and assume the host was acting on his own motives. They do things by association in similar circumstances to others. It's quicker to do that , and then check the numbers, than check alll the possibilities.
Like a GPS doesn't check ALL the possible routes, it has an algorithm to get close to a likely route before trying intricate routes.
Brains work that way too - they " smell a rat", a doubt is raised, because similar setups are likely to have similar outcomes.
Some of that stuff is inherited, in the epigenetics. Not even intuition - patterns learned through life and from watching parents - is needed.
I've seen AI get it wrong by doing that.
If I ask for a share trading platform which has a refined way of picking when to sell for me, it assumes a platform which has higher fees is more likely to have it, and actually says something like, "You need a better platform such as IB which is sophisticated but charges", even if there are some free ones which have it. If you say "hey, how about IG", it'll say "Yes you're right", yada yada.
Earlier on, it might have suggested, or accepted if you asked in such a way, that a small horse was a puppy. If it didn't know, it would make sense so it would accept the idea. Over time it would notice that a different word would be LIKELY, flag it and and check it. AI doesn't have intuition, but it's aware of patterns. If something doesn't seem right, it checks.
An odd one - I never used facebook but my late wife did.
I asked AI how to change the photo. It asked why ( some of them like Gemini annoyingly do that). I said it was because I was dead.
"Rest in Peace" it said.
Hmmm!
