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Are Large, multi-Generational Families More Likely to Spread Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Scarlet Pimpernel, 6 Aug 2020.

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  1. Mottie

    Mottie

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    I’m not saying what the cause is, it’s just my theory as I said but if my theory is true, yes, it could be youthful irresponsibility especially of those youths live in a multi generation household. When they lifted restrictions in any country and the rate started to rise again, it wasn’t because of OAP's flocking to the beaches, bars and nightclubs.
     
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  3. Mottie

    Mottie

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    Well that’s generous of you but I don’t think the mods need your permission to close the discussion, there’s no major arguing or abuse going on, is there?
     
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  4. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    But why would the youths who live in large multi-generational households be more likely to go to socialise?
    And as previously mentioned, when such youths spread the virus to a family member who is symptomatic, the socialising of the youths is curtailed.
    When a youth living in a single-person household passes the infection to another,a) their behaviour is not curtailed, and b) they are the type to be less likely to participate in any tracking and tracing process. Youths in large families do not have the choice to participate or not.
     
  5. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    I am a generous soul.:)
    And no, there is no arguing or abuse going on ...yet.
    I suspect, give it time......... :(
     
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    There is another aspect, that I have not considered or offered any propositions: that of the effect on the economy of any flouting or observing of the rules.
    I am not sure if it is relevant, but if anyone wants to explore it, I am open to the discussion.
     
  7. https://www.theage.com.au/national/...sters-driving-its-spread-20200622-p55504.html

    I would've thought it was obvious. One person goes into his home and spreads the virus. If he lives with one other and the one other do not go out then it's minimal impact. If he lives with 6 others and nobody else goes out then more people have it but impact on others outside is still minimal.. We know it's pretty hard not to spread it within our immediate family/household.

    But this isn't what's happening up and down the country. People are out, several members, if not all members are out now. So if one person infects a large family and all those members of the family go out they will indeed have, unwittingly, spread the virus further than someone who lives with 1 other.
     
  8. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    Thank you for your comments, sodthisforfun, but I don't think your linked article supports your comments in the last paragraph.
    A) the article is from Australia, so you must have searched far and wide for that article.

    B) the article refers to large family gatherings, e.g. weddings, funerals, birthdays, etc, not large multi-generational families. Large family gatherings can consist of multiple households where each individual household is average size.

    ""Super-spreaders" who have unwittingly infected members of their immediate family and other relatives could be fuelling a new wave of community clusters of coronavirus infections surging in Victoria.
    Events such as large family gatherings, where social distance measures haven't been observed, could have also become "super-spreading" events, experts say.
    The catalyst for spread has been attributed to family gatherings where social distancing measures were not upheld, authorities say."
    The worst case, cited, has nothing whatever to do with families:
    "The biggest cluster, however, has called into question the health department's own handling of the matter,
    Two large clusters among at least five security guards ... it is suspected a contractor may have picked it up from a traveller, before spreading the virus among colleagues through a lack of social distancing."

    "Premier Daniel Andrews has blamed the surge in cases on families breaching restrictions, by visiting family members or going to work after testing positive to the deadly virus.
    More than half of the new cases since the end of April had come from family-to-family transmission."

    C) the article does suggest that it is lack of social distancing, and poor quarantining that has caused the spread of the virus:
    "University of Melbourne professor of epidemiology Tony Blakely said there were a number of possible explanations behind Victoria's jump in cases while other states have had few new infections, including mounting evidence of people flouting quarantine rules.
    There may have been a super-spreader who unknowingly fuelled transmission within their own family, colleagues and the wider community, Professor Blakely said."
    D) the article also refers to poor hygeine as a cause of the spread of the virus.
    But Professor Blakely said the government must also “sort out its own quarantine practices” with family clusters linked to a spate of cases among security guards at quarantine hotels, where lax hygiene has been blamed for the outbreak.
    E) Finally, this article is from Australia, so any reference to large clusters, and outbreaks must be considered in the overall view of Australia's numbers of infected people.

    So in conclusion, your article does not support any theory of large multi-generational families facilitating the spread of the virus. In fact, quite the opposite, it suggest that other factors are to blame. The only mention of families is in the context of large family gatherings, and visiting family members.
    "In the last three days alone, community transmission in Victoria has soared by 30 cases, the biggest jump recorded since the peak of the pandemic in April.
    A case is classed as community transmission if the person who tested positive is not a returned overseas traveller or a close contact of an existing case."

    All quotes from your linked article.
     
  9. I simply put the link up because I thought it was interesting - and showed how one family can spread it.
    The fact that it's Australia isn't too much of a problem, there's similar thoughts in the USA too.

    Of course factors are to blame, as I said in my post.
    If a family is infected, and they all go out, which is happening up and down the UK (and Oz & the USA), then a larger family will infect more people.
     
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  11. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    Does all this boil down to:

    are people more likely to infect Grandparents if they live in a house containing Grandparents than in a house not containing Grandparents?


    Mmmm. I'll have to think about it.
     
  12. Brigadier

    Brigadier

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    You justify it, seeing as you imagined it.
     
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  13. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    I thought we were considering the hypothesis of large multi-generational families of facilitating the spread of the virus.

    But do let us know your conclusion on the grandparent thingy. :)
     
  14. Mottie

    Mottie

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    Here’s one nearer to home. If you’re interested and want more, just search for ‘Coronavirus in multi generation households'. Apparently Italians have a lot of multi generation households and they reckon that could be a contributory factor in their rapid spread.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-52117636
     
  15. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    Thank you for your comment, Mottie, but the article refers to the difficulty of self-isolating in large multi-generational households.
    No-one disputes those difficulties
    However the article does indicate two things, a) that large multi-generational households are aware of the need to self-isolate, and b) only one member of that household goes out for shopping, and they are a key worker anyway.
    His grandparents, aged 72 and 86, are staying in a separate part of the house, while his brother-in-law, who is a key-worker, has been nominated as the only person allowed to leave the house to pick up shopping.
    your link.
    The reference to the spread of the virus in Italy and Spain appears to be pure supposition with no evidence, (empirical or otherwise) to support that supposition.
    Professors are just as gullible to supposition as anyone else.
    In addition there is no supporting suggestion that the other family members go out and spread the virus. Older family members being most likely to a) suffer symptoms, and b) not go out anyway.
     
  16. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    If there are grandparents in the house, they might catch covid from the other people in the house.

    If there are no grandparents in the house they won't.
     
  17. Mottie

    Mottie

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    It also says "Health officials have warned that those in multi-generational households are at more risk of infecting their elders".
     
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