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Are Large, multi-Generational Families More Likely to Spread Coronavirus?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Scarlet Pimpernel, 6 Aug 2020.

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  1. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    Yes, that took a lot of working out.

    It is difficult to infect people who are not there.
     
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  3. Mottie

    Mottie

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    I bet it did, was it the 'multi generation' bit that threw you instead of just household?
     
  4. Notch7

    Notch7

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    EFLI has nailed it though.

    Multigenerational families, by clever deduction must include grandparents........since one might assume parents with children are just "families", not "multigenerational"

    My guess it's a multi factorial issue......BAMe families are more likely to be poor, increasing chance of being multigenerational. They are more likely to be in low paid work that is likely to be an essential worker and at higher risk of infection. They are less likely to be able to work from home and more likely to choose earning money than lowering infection risk.
     
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  5. Brigadier

    Brigadier

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    Also,

    Consider six thirty - yr olds hanging around together outside a shop or takeaway, for example.
    One infects the others, and all take it home.

    A couple live with their parents, one with one parent, a couple with partner, and one alone.

    How many become ill enough to display symptoms and get tested? Less than six say?


    Contrast that with the six originals, going back to their multi - generational households.
    There could reasonably be ten grandparents, plus the same number of parents.
    How many now become ill enough to be tested?
     
  6. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    Assuming that the rest of the 30-yr olds are asymptomatic, and so are their partners and children, the cycle of infection will be exacerbated. The asymptomatic children will be out and about, or at school, etc.
    But if the grandparents are infected, it's very likely that they will be symptomatic, testing, tracking (for what it's worth), and isolating will kick in.
    With younger people who are asymptomatic, there is a greater chance of them continuing to mingle within the community, until something alerts them or the 'officials' that isolation is required.

    Additionally, those with grandparents at home, who may be self-isolating in difficult circumstances, are much less likely to go out and mingle, knowing the risk of bringing home the virus and endangering their parents or grandparents.

    I would still maintain that those living in multi-generational households are less likely to socialise, and for those that do, and infect the rest of their family, are more likely to be detected and forced to isolate. They are also more likely to be subject to peer pressure from the rest of their family, to not socialise in the first place.

    Moreover, grandparents are much less likely to go out during a pandemic, knowing the risk to their health, which results in far fewer people in circulation.
     
  7. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    I fully agree, it is a multi-factorial issue, and I fully agree BAME families are more likely to be in the circumstances that you describe, small BAME families, single-person BAME households and multi-generational BAME households.
    As I just explained to Brigadier, younger families are more likely to be asymptomatic, and therefore there is nothing to alert them or the officials to enforce isolation. For instance, the children will continue to go to school, and facilitate the spread of the virus, the working parents will continue to go to work, etc.
    However, a) grandparents are less likely to go out, under the circumstances, resulting in fewer people in circulation - more room for social distancing, and b) if the grandparents catch the virus there is a high likelihood of them being symptomatic, and isolation therefore being enforced on the whole family.
    So younger, one or two-generational families may be infected, be asymptomatic, and may be super spreaders within the community.
    It is highly unlikely that multi-generational families will be, or remain as super spreaders for long.

    Additionally, as we have seen from the BBC link provided by Mottie, multi-generational families are aware of the risk of infection spread within the domestic situation and will make efforts to self-isolate at-risk individuals, that in itself means those at-risk individuals will not be going out, resulting in fewer people in circulation.
     
  8. JohnD

    JohnD

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    An outdoor group who all get infected?

    Wow, you must have been shocked to see the Cheltenham crowds.

    [​IMG]

    150,000 people packed like sardines.
     
  9. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    That isn't disputed.
    It's the repercussion of infecting the older relatives, if they are present in the same household, that matters.
    If they are, it's highly likely that they will be infected, unless they are practising high levels of hygiene and/or self isolating. Therefore the 'officials' will be alerted and isolation for the whole family will be enforced.
    If there are no grandparents, or other older relatives present, it is very possible that younger people could be infected, asymptomatic and continue to mingle in the community. No-one would be aware. they would be considered as super spreaders.
     
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  11. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    I very much doubt that was in anyone's thoughts during the referendum. I certainly didn't hear any politician refer to it.
    So, shall we consider it irrelevant to this discussion?
    Additionally, all EU member, and non-EU states have the ability, the authority and the right to limit movement between nation states during circumstances such as this.
     
  12. Ihavenojob

    Ihavenojob

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    It is relevant when we are talking about whole neighbourhoods having their movement restricted. Maybe going forward, movement between different countries will be restricted even more, and that should be a good thing, environmentally as well .
     
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  13. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    Within the context of "Are Large, multi-Generational Families More Likely to Spread Corona Virus?" I think Brexit and the import, or export of viruses is irrelevant.
     
  14. Pure conjecture am afraid. It's not what's happening up and down the country.


    Can you please get it right? It's coronavirus, not Corona Virus.
     
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  15. Scarlet Pimpernel

    Scarlet Pimpernel

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    I have given my reasons for my conjecture.
    On what do you base your conjecture that younger members of multi-generational families are likely to be out socialising?


    But irrespective of that, my points about a) grandparents are less likely to be out and about, and/or shielding, b) if younger members are infected they are highly likely to infect their grandparents, and c) the 'officials' are more likely to be alerted to such young infected people than if they were not in multi-generational families, all hold true.
     
  16. Because I see them. I see them at the supermarket, I see the kids/youngsters at the packed pubs near me, I see large families with grannie eat at a restaurant near me, I see them at the garden centre as a family day out.

    Life in the UK has been nearly normal for weeks.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 7 Aug 2020
  17. Ihavenojob

    Ihavenojob

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    Then why did ellal bring up Brexit ?
     
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