For Himmy

[Deleted2797112]

"It does not address, or discuss the possibility of large, multi-generational households facilitating the spread of coronavirus.
It does not address the spread of coronavirus in the community at all."

Read more: https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/...pread-coronavirus.550440/page-5#ixzz6UXcJdxiC

It does.

"The proportion of over-70s in a local authority area who share a household with people of working-age is confirmed to be a significant factor in accounting for the variation in the number of Covid-19 cases across England – even when levels of local deprivation, the time since the area first recorded five cases and an additional, non-specific, “London effect” are taken into account."

"This research confirms that there is a statistical link across local authority areas between the confirmed Covid-19 caseload and the proportion of households where pensioners and working-age live together,"

 

[Notch7]

I think this also was the concern in Lombardy -where many grandparents share a home with their childrens family.

however maybe Himmie was arguing that whilst that may have led to higher covid cases, does it lead to higher infection rates.



good points on this:
"I started wearing face coverings before the regulations required it. Not because I have to and not really to protect others or myself but to help limit the spread of the virus and enable the lifting of restrictions. Selfish, really I suppose. I want my life to be back as close to normal as possible. It's one of the tools available like social distancing and hand hygiene and it's easy to do. For me, it's a no-brainer."

Read more: https://www.diynot.com/diy/threads/...pread-coronavirus.550440/page-5#ixzz6UXlBJB3T

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I think this also was the concern in Lombardy -where many grandparents share a home with their childrens family.

however maybe Himmie was arguing that whilst that may have led to higher covid cases, does it lead to higher infection rates.

Reasonably precise, Notch7, and thank you.
Although younger people carry the virus back to their homes, to infect the older relatives, a) those older relatives do not then go out into the community to spread the virus, They may end up in hospital receiving care, etc. and b) the younger, potentially asymptomatic infected people will then become aware that they are also infected and be 'swept up' in the isolation process for the whole family. If they were in younger households, infecting other younger relatives who will probably also be asymptomatic, they would continue their lifestyle, blissfully unaware that they were infecting not only their relatives, but the rest of the community as well.


Additionally, "don't kill granny" is an excellent strap line to educate younger people.

Young people in Preston are being urged "Don't kill Granny" as new lockdown measures come into force.
Adrian Phillips, chief executive of Preston City Council, said it was "alarming to see that the under-30s are contracting it at a significant rate".
"I know our director of public health has said 'Don't kill Granny' to young people to try and focus the message,'" he said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-lancashire-53706436​

This also is in sympathy with my argument that younger people may adapt their lifestyle if they have older relatives at home, about whom they are concerned.

​

 

[Notch7]

Additionally, "don't kill granny" is an excellent strap line to educate younger people

not if there is an inheritance impending.....

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

not if there is an inheritance impending.....

Hmm possibly, but if they are in front line occupations, with low wages, and low quality housing.......

 

[sodthisforfun]

Although younger people carry the virus back to their homes, to infect the older relatives, a) those older relatives do not then go out into the community to spread the virus, They may end up in hospital receiving care, etc. and b) the younger, potentially asymptomatic infected people will then become aware that they are also infected and be 'swept up' in the isolation process for the whole family.

Conjecture.

We can have this virus without showing symptoms for up to 14 days and be asymptomatic throughout - but still can be infectious. Not all old people will suffer or show symptoms either afaik. Older relatives ARE going out the house, same as the youngsters. As I said yesterday, I see them but apparently that wasn't good enough for you.

The UK has without doubt, pretty much returned to normal. Come over from France and see it for yourself.

 

[Deleted2797112]

Reasonably precise, Notch7, and thank you.
a) those older relatives do not then go out into the community to spread the virus,

That's your opinion. It's not backed up with data.

Anecdotally, in my little local high street here, there are a number of multi-generational businesses where all generations (kids, parents and grands) have been out serving the community during lockdown - a dry cleaner, 3 convenience stores and a coffee shop.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Older relatives ARE going out the house, same as the youngsters.

If the extended family are out and about there is no indication that they are from multi-generational households.
Indeed, multi-generational households do not need to go out to meet up, so the probability is that the people you are seeing are not from multi-generational households.

Anecdotally, in my little local high street here, there are a number of multi-generational businesses where all generations (kids, parents and grands) have been out serving the community during lockdown - a dry cleaner, 3 convenience stores and a coffee shop.

We are not really considering the problems of running a business. We are only considering the possibility that multi-generational households are facilitating the spread of coronavirus. I think we are all very much aware of the concerns of commerce during periods of lockdown and the wider effect on the economy. I do hope that in your anecdotal example the people meeting the public were taking suitable precautions.

That's your opinion. It's not backed up with data.

Neither is the myth that large, multi-generational households are responsible for facilitating the spread of coronavirus within the community.
But at least I have attempted to analyse, explore and dissect the logic underpinning the dispelling of that myth.

 

[Deleted2797112]

But at least I have attempted to analyze, explore and dissect the logic underpinning the dispelling of that myth.

Your attempt has failed. Opinions dressed up as cod science. And it's analyse.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Although younger people carry the virus back to their homes, to infect the older relatives, a) those older relatives do not then go out into the community to spread the virus,

...but that is the increased infection rate that is being talked about; it has already happened - unlike when the older relatives live somewhere else on their own.

Why can't you accept this?

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

...but that is the increased infection rate that is being talked about; it has already happened - unlike when the older relatives live somewhere else on their own.

Why can't you accept this?

I'm not referring to any change in rate of the infection, just the spread of it in general.
You are introducing the notion of a change in the infection rate, which I consider to be irrelevant in this discussion.
Larger, multi-generational families are no more disposed to spreading the virus within the community, than any other type of family.
Sure, there may be infection within the households, but that can and will happen in all sorts of households. In multi-generational households, the presence and the likely infection and the probably symptomatic older relatives, will alert agencies to the need for the whole family to isolate. That is less likely to occur in smaller households.
Additionally, younger relatives are more likely to take more care about catching the virus and spreading it to others, (don't kill your granny).
In BAME families, the employed are more likely to be key workers and more aware of good hygiene regimes, and the need to shield vulnerable realtives.
Also, those older, infected relatives are highly unlikely to go out,infecting the rest of the community. Indeed, they are highly likely to not be going out anyway, reducing the actively circulating population.

If you can't accept the logic, don't assume I can't understand the logic and reasonable basis for my conjecture.

So far no-one has proposed any logic or reasonable argument to the contrary.

There is a further factor that I have not mentioned before, in multi-generational households, especially where both parents are working and unable to work from home, e.g. key workers, having older, retired relatives available to take care of the children without either the older relatives or the children leaving home further reduces the spread of coronavirus. Whereas in smaller families, where both parents are working, either the children are looked after in suitable places outside the home, probably mixing with other families and children, or someone comes into the home to look after the children. Either way, community infection is liable to be increased.

 

[Deleted2797112]

I'm not referring to any change in rate of the infection, just the spread of it in general.

Contrary to your reply to Notch7 above.

Again:

"The proportion of over-70s in a local authority area who share a household with people of working-age is confirmed to be a significant factor in accounting for the variation in the number of Covid-19 cases across England – even when levels of local deprivation, the time since the area first recorded five cases and an additional, non-specific, “London effect” are taken into account."

"This research confirms that there is a statistical link across local authority areas between the confirmed Covid-19 caseload and the proportion of households where pensioners and working-age live together,"

based on real actual data, researched and analysed in the appropriate manner. You've got speculation and opinion which is your and yours alone. Stop trying to dress it up. The emperor has no clothes.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Contrary to your reply to Notch7 above.

Again:

"The proportion of over-70s in a local authority area who share a household with people of working-age is confirmed to be a significant factor in accounting for the variation in the number of Covid-19 cases across England – even when levels of local deprivation, the time since the area first recorded five cases and an additional, non-specific, “London effect” are taken into account."

"This research confirms that there is a statistical link across local authority areas between the confirmed Covid-19 caseload and the proportion of households where pensioners and working-age live together,"

based on real actual data, researched and analysed in the appropriate manner. You've got speculation and opinion which is your and yours alone. Stop trying to dress it up. The emperor has no clothes.

Let me be clear. I'm not suggesting that older relatives are not infected by younger members of the multi-generational family, of course they are, and it will lead to additional cases. But those older relatives will not be facilitating the spread of the virus. They will not be going out much anyway, they will certainly not be going out when and if (and most probably) symptomatic, and they will alert the appropriate agencies so that the whole family is isolated, and the younger relatives will most probably be taking extra care with their own behaviour and their behaviour within the home, and because the older relatives are not going out anyway the general actively circulating population is reduced, and any child care that is required can be taken care of within the home so the children do not need to leave the home.

Does that clarify it?
I still maintain that there are several logical reasons why multi-generational families are less likely to be facilitating the spread of the virus within the community.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Larger, multi-generational families are no more disposed to spreading the virus within the community, than any other type of family.

Yes, they are. They are the community. That is the point. There is more of the community under one roof.

Sure, there may be infection within the households,

There you go, then.

but that can and will happen in all sorts of households. In multi-generational households, the presence and the likely infection and the probably symptomatic older relatives, will alert agencies to the need for the whole family to isolate.

Too late. Two old people might die.

That is less likely to occur in smaller households.

So - MORE likely in larger households. Why didn't anyone think of that?

 

[Notch7]

"This research confirms that there is a statistical link across local authority areas between the confirmed Covid-19 caseload and the proportion of households where pensioners and working-age live together,"

based on real actual data, researched and analysed in the appropriate manner. You've got speculation and opinion which is your and yours alone. Stop trying to dress it up. The emperor has no clothes.

you are missing the point.

confirmed covid caseload doesnt necessarily mean spreaders

what is the R value of multi generational households compared to the R value of other households?