EU negotiations: will UK govt reach a deal or not

[fillyboy]

They're demanding permanent fishing rights in British waters and 'level playing field' rules whereby we're not allowed to compete against them. That's their red line, and they have the audacity to accuse us of 'intransigence'.

Sounds like 'no deal' to me.

 

[Notch7]

They're demanding permanent fishing rights in British waters and 'level playing field' rules whereby we're not allowed to compete against them. That's their red line, and they have the audacity to accuse us of 'intransigence'.

Sounds like 'no deal' to me.

But you voted for Johnson and his deal -which made clear on the PD there would be comprehensive access to fishing and LPF and state aid would be part of any trade deal
so you approved it.

the UK are allowed to compete against the EU: on level terms.

 

[Notch7]

and they have the audacity to accuse us of 'intransigence'

no they are asking for what Johnson agreed in his deal last year.

 

[Notch7]

'level playing field' rules

oh dear we have cakesim.

the UK are negotiating a free trade deal with no tariffs: that sort of access to the SM means a LPF

the EU were quite happy to negotiate a trade deal on a line by line tariff negotiation, but Johnson self imposed a deadline that gave insufficient time, which was why Barnier said: "LPF with dynamic alignment.

 

[Notch7]

demanding permanent fishing rights in British waters

They arent demanding anything, its what was agreed.

Barnier wont move on to further talks before fishing is agreed because the French will veto any deal that doesnt include access.

 

[Brigadier]

the French will veto any deal that doesnt include access.

Aka "have your cake and eat it"

 

[transam]

Barnier is probably boozed up (hip flask) and has not got a scooby as to. What is actually going on

Strange how the remoaners are hoping it all go's t*ts up

Well. Its not strange tbh Tis predictable

They hate this country so much? Dunno why they do nt join Himagin in France

 

[Notch7]

Aka "have your cake and eat it"

Typical dishonest brexer argument, oversimplified ignores context and nuance.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of fishing in the past, all that counts is the current situation.

The UK chose to leave, the French have enjoyed access for years, they don't have to give it up.
the EU have the most leverage.

And guess what, if the Spanish don't get fishing access, there will be a claim on Gibraltar.

If the French don't get fishing acces, UK fisherman won't be able to unload their catch on French docks and the UK will lose access to 70% of its exports.

 

[fillyboy]

the French have enjoyed access for years, they don't have to give it up.

Yes they do.

And guess what, if the Spanish don't get fishing access, there will be a claim on Gibraltar.

Under the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713 Gibraltar was ceded to Britain. This treaty stated “the town, castle and fortifications were to be held and enjoyed for ever without any exception or impediment whatsoever.” This treaty was renewed again in 1763 by the Treaty of Paris, and in 1783 by the Treaty of Versailles.

If the French don't get fishing acces, UK fisherman won't be able to unload their catch on French docks and the UK will lose access to 70% of its exports.

And how many hundreds of pounds worth of fish do we export every year?

 

[fillyboy]

I'm not asking which side of the debate anybody is on, just whether you think a deal will be reached or not.

Personally I'm erring towards some form of extension fudge.

LOL

 

[Notch7]

Yes they do

The EU nor the French don't have to give up access to fishing

Because the EU have more leverage.
46% UK exports go to EU
8% EU exports go to UK

Yup we need them 5x more

 

[Notch7]

And how many hundreds of pounds worth of fish do we export every year

70% of all the fish caught by UK fisherman is sold to EU customers
A little more than £100

 

[Notch7]

Under the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713 Gibraltar was ceded to Britain. This treaty stated “the town, castle and fortifications were to be held and enjoyed for ever without any exception or impediment whatsoever.” This treaty was renewed again in 1763 by the Treaty of Paris, and in 1783 by the Treaty of Versailles

A Brexiteers oversimplification of the issues.

Brexit provides a huge strategic gain for Spain over Gibraltar, for a number of reasons.
If you want to inform yourself, I suggest you do some research.

Not least is who controls Gibraltar airport. Spain argue it is on Spanish land.

And then there is the border.
Gibraltar is not in the customs union but it is in the Single Market. Big potential problems for the many workers who cross the border everyday.

Gibraltar doesn't have sufficient accomodation for all its workers, many thousands come from Spain everyday.

Spain has far more leverage over Gibraltar than UK

Guess what Spain has taken back control.

 

[Vinty]

A Brexiteers oversimplification of the issues.

Brexit provides a huge strategic gain for Spain over Gibraltar, for a number of reasons.
If you want to inform yourself, I suggest you do some research.

Not least is who controls Gibraltar airport. Spain argue it is on Spanish land.

And then there is the border.
Gibraltar is not in the customs union but it is in the Single Market. Big potential problems for the many workers who cross the border everyday.

Gibraltar doesn't have sufficient accomodation for all its workers, many thousands come from Spain everyday.

Spain has far more leverage over Gibraltar than UK

Guess what Spain has taken back control.

If Spain closes the border with Gibralter then the only loser will be Spanish workers who will lose their jobs.
Wasn't the border closed before and it had no effect whatsoever on the colony.

 

[Lower]

The EU nor the French don't have to give up access to fishing

Because the EU have more leverage.
46% UK exports go to EU
8% EU exports go to UK

Yup we need them 5x more

Those are interesting stats, but skewed because the EU economy as a whole is so much larger than ours.

Some other interesting stats are that the UK has a £20 billion nett trade deficit with Germany, £15 Billion deficit with Spain, £10 Billion deficit with Belgium, £8.5 Billion with Holland, £6.4 Billion with Poland, £5.2 Billion with Italy and £4.8 Billion with France.

Those countries will not want to lose our markets, particularly Germany, Spain and Italy.

The EU do not have as much bargaining power as they think. I personally think that we'll end up with no deal for 6-12 months before both side start to feel the pain and end up doing a deal.