EU negotiations: will UK govt reach a deal or not

[Notch7]

Those are interesting stats, but skewed because the EU economy as a whole is so much larger than ours

But that contradicts your argument and agrees with mine.

The EU is 5x bigger, so UK exports are only a small percentage of the total.

 

[Notch7]

ome other interesting stats are that the UK has a £20 billion nett trade deficit with Germany, £15 Billion deficit with Spain, £10 Billion deficit with Belgium, £8.5 Billion with Holland, £6.4 Billion with Poland, £5.2 Billion with Italy and £4.8 Billion with France

Again, that contradicts your argument.

To the UK all of those major economies, Spain, Belgium, Holland, Poland, Italy, France......are all one huge trading bloc to the UK, I.E. the EU.

So to each of those countries, the UK only represents on average 8% of their exports.

To the UK, that trade bloc is almost half of our total exports.

 

[Notch7]

The EU do not have as much bargaining power as they think

Yes they do.

Brexiteers have been sold a lie for 4 years that the UK holds all the cards.

It does not. Just look at any trade negotiation in history.....the largest side always has greater leverage.

The EU is the UK biggest and most important export market by a country mile and it is the nearest.

 

[Lower]

But that contradicts your argument and agrees with mine.

The EU is 5x bigger, so UK exports are only a small percentage of the total.

I don't think it does contradict my argument.

If you look at our trade deficit with some EU individual countries, some individual countries would be much more affected than the 8% figure you quote because the bulk of our trade is with 6 countries who also happen to be some of the strongest voices in the EU.

If you look at Germany alone, we are Germany's 5 biggest export market and have the second highest import export deficit. They don't want to lose or reduce any of the £78 Billion they exported to us in 2019.

Can you see it being politically acceptable for Italy to take a £26.5 Billion hit to their economy in the state that it's in right now. Same with Spain, can they afford to lose the £35 Billion we bought from them in 2019?

8% as a whole doesn't sound so much, but when you start to consider the impact on some individual countries, its actually much more than 8% for some and the picture changes.

 

[Lower]

Again, that contradicts your argument.

To the UK all of those major economies, Spain, Belgium, Holland, Poland, Italy, France......are all one huge trading bloc to the UK, I.E. the EU.

So to each of those countries, the UK only represents on average 8% of their exports.

To the UK, that trade bloc is almost half of our total exports.

To be clear, i fully appreciate the importance of our trade with the EU as an entity and the individual countries. I do not think we hold the upper hand in these negotiations.

However, i think that the EU overestimates their hand and underestimates our resolve to not submit to their demands.

 

[Notch7]

8% as a whole doesn't sound so much, but when you start to consider the impact on some individual countries, its actually much more than 8% for some and the picture changes

Much more than 8%........is still far less than 46%

 

[Notch7]

think that the EU overestimates their hand and underestimates our resolve to not submit to their demands

Of course you do....the UK has been fed the "we need them more than they need us" line for 4 years.

You think it overestimates its hand because of your confirmation bias.

 

[Lower]

Of course you do....the UK has been fed the "we need them more than they need us" line for 4 years.

You think it overestimates its hand because of your confirmation bias.

No, i think the EU over estimates it's hand because i'm aware of what my company and our customers are doing to develop business outside of the EU and receiving a very positive response.

I think we've been blinkered into thinking that the EU is the only market for our goods and companies are starting to open their eyes to the rest of the world.

 

[Notch7]

Can you see it being politically acceptable for Italy to take a £26.5 Billion hit to their economy in the state that it's in right now. Same with Spain, can they afford to lose the £35 Billion we bought from them in 2019

Can the UK afford to take a £290 billion hit to our economy?

That's the problem with Brexit arguments, whichever leverage or threat argument a brexiteer uses, the UK is always the worst hit.


And that's without including the massive hit UK businesses will face when expensive trade barriers hit every single pound of those £290b exports.

What is happening and will accelerate is that EU customers will switch suppliers to inside the SM.

You won't agree with me, but we shall find out starting on Jan 1st 2021.

Personally I want a no deal....it will front load economic shock, hopefully enough to put an end to the bravado of brexiteers and make them see common sense.....then hopefully the Tory party will have to stop gaslighting the nation and take real decisions.

 

[JohnD]

No, i think the EU over estimates it's hand

and what did this fellow do?

 

[JohnD]

However, i think that the EU overestimates their hand

overestimates?

 

[JohnD]

overestimates

well, somebody does.

 

[IT Minion]

power as they think. I personally think that we'll end up with no deal for 6-12 months before both side start to feel the pain and end up doing a deal.

I agree, once we crash out there will be a series of deals made afterwards to repair the worst of the damage. What we'll be able to offer in exchange is open to discussion. Also if we wait too long then the EU economies will start to sort out their own supplies of what we do make.

 

[JohnD]

Also if we wait too long then the EU economies will start to sort out their own supplies of what we do make.

they started four years ago.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Spain has far more leverage over Gibraltar than UK

While UK was within EU, EU never wanted to get involved in the Gibraltar issue.
Now that UK is no longer in EU, guess what....

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Britain complained about the European Union calling Gibraltar a “colony” in a piece of draft legislation on Friday, highlighting how the EU is lining up behind Spain in its territorial dispute as Britain quits the bloc.

In particular, it stated: “Gibraltar is a colony of the British Crown. There is a controversy between Spain and the United Kingdom concerning the sovereignty over Gibraltar.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...n-by-calling-gibraltar-a-colony-idUSKCN1PQ4DJ​

EU/Spain has far more leverage over Gibraltar than UK.

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Spain will revive its bid for shared sovereignty over Gibraltar once Britain has left the European Union, the country’s prime minister said on Sunday, adding Madrid had the support of the bloc to resolve the 300-year-old dispute.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rol-over-gibraltar-after-brexit-idUSKCN1NU0GW​