Flight AF447

L

Lincsbodger

Just watched an interesting documentary about Air France Flight 447, which was a scheduled commercial flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, an Airbus 330, that crashed into the Atlantic Ocean on 1 June 2009, killing all 216 passengers and 12 crew members.

The guy pointed out that these days, air crashes are usually the result of a chain of unusual events which singly arent critical, bu together bring it down.

Since the black boxes are two miles under the sea, its unlikely you'll eveer get to the truth, but this guy, a retired air crash investigator, has put together a theory, backed up with evidence and tests in a simulator. The sequence of events goes like this:

1. AF447 flies towards a small storm, behind which is a humongous storm. The radar cant see the large storm behind, because the small hides it - the radar cant see through the small storm, until its too late. AF447 is on autopilot.

2. AF447 finally spots the massive storm, and is forced to go through it.

3. The Auto Thrust system adjust thrust to maintain airspeed slightly slower. You go slower in a storm otherwise turbulence rips the plane apart. The pilot doesnt notice the Autothrust has adjusted the speed because unlike older mechanical controls, the thrust levers in an Aribuss dont move when adjusted by auto systems.

4. The storm has exactly the right rare conditions for a very rare phenomena to occur - supercooled water. This is very pure water well below freezing point that is still liquid. When it hist the pitot tibes on the plane, it freezes solid instantly, blocking the tubes. The flight computers are now well stuffed, because airspeed is acritical piece of information.

5. Without airspeed data , the autopilot kicks out. 20 seconds later the Autothrust system also disengages.

6. The pilots are forced to manually fly the plane, with inaccurate flight data. Basically, they're now guessing.

7. Because they dont know the true airspeed, they probably did exactly what the book says, which is reduce thrust to 85% and raise the nose 5 degrees, probably unaware the autothrust already reduced airspeed.

8. The plane then stalls, because its going to slow. One wing stalls before the other. IN a simulator, a test pilot did this and lost 19,000 ft of altitude before he recovered out the stall, in a fighter plane. Commercial pilots are no longer taught to recover from extreme stalls. The procedure to recover from stall is to force the nose down vertical to get air flowing over the wings and recover lift. If one wing stalls before the other, it throws the plane into a violent corkscrew, making it harder to recover.

So, it looks like the managed to get the plane straight and level, but ran out of height, and hit the water flat and horizontal. The scandal is that the problem with pitot tubes freezing up was already known ,and all pitot tubes were being replaced, but AF447 hadnt been done and was flying on old design pitots.

It was all very interesting...........
 
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It is indeed. Aren't these pitot tubes getting blocked up one of the main concenrs for flying through that volcaninc ash too?
 
Some interesting points and opinions on this site http://www.airfrance447.com/

It mentions that the search for the flight data and voice recorders has now been called off. We have the technology to find these, all though it will take a lot of time considering the area to be covered.
 
Some interesting points and opinions on this site http://www.airfrance447.com/

It mentions that the search for the flight data and voice recorders has now been called off. We have the technology to find these, all though it will take a lot of time considering the area to be covered.

Apparantly there 2 miles down in an underwater mountian range.

You woudl think they woudl make them so a) the float in water b) they have a salt water powered location transmitter sot hey continue to send ther elocation if immersed underwater and c) they send up a bouy on a microfibre tether.

Even better, why dont they transmit what the black box is recording to a satellite which then relays it to a data recording centre, so that you dont have to even bother recovering the black box to get the data ? If the flight arrives on time safely you could discard the data, so you only have to store the data for all the flights in the air at any one point, not a huge amount of data.
 
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They have probably thought about a lot of ways in which they could improve them. If they fitted them in such a way that they would float, they would have to make sure the are ejected from the aircraft. Some modern flight recorders are self ejecting but that doesnt guarantee they will float or be found.

Think the best way is to have a real time transmission of data. At least then you can monitor and record everything as is, in the event of an accident you have all the info you need there. Technology is obviously there so it looks like its a probable cost issue maybe

If they can send an ROV into a room on the Titanic, which is slightly deeper than flight AF447 :confused:

Apparantly they have only stopped because the lease on the equiment they have been using has run out. Hopefully they will start another search in the future and give some peace to the families of the victims. It must be hard not knowing what happened to a loved one when we have so much technology at hand to tell us
 
Pure conjecture, until data can be recovered, which is now looking extremely unlikely, you can make any speculation you wish, one thing that is fairly certain, it must have been a catastrophic failure, allowing no time for RT transmission.

Wotan
 
The 'black' boxes, according to the programme, can only transmit a signal for a month. And transmitting any signal via 2 miles of water is going to be difficult. As I understand it, submarines operate on a very low frequency for radio communication, whereas to transmit to satellite requires very high frequency?

I recall a similar programme, where the sensor in question was taped over, during a de-ice, and the ground crew forgot to remove the tape, thus the same suspected fault. But as these Airbus are reliant on basic info from this sensor, it makes all systems ineffective.

I also recall a failure of this aircraft at an airshow, that highlighted inefficiencies of the fly-by-wire system, the crew were doing a slow fly by to the crowd, but the computer 'thought' they were coming in to land, and they crashed into a forest.

I've played many flight simulators, that the forum attached to the 'game', has real life pilots, and they say how real they are, and getting into a stall as the programme suggests isn't recoverable. Add to that, lights and buzzers going off, multible faults, vibration, and wind shear. They didn't stand a chance.
 
Big storms hidden by little storms? Don't make me larf - the weather satellites would know all about them even if the radar didn't. Just another silly conspiracy theory. :rolleyes:
 
Big storms hidden by little storms? Don't make me larf - the weather satellites would know all about them even if the radar didn't. Just another silly conspiracy theory. :rolleyes:

No joe. Think about it.

Why can you see a storm could on radar ? Because the water in it reflects radar. Its opaque to the radar. Check the definition of the word 'opaque'. You can no more see one storm behind another when you are the same height as the storms than you can see one brick wall behind another. This is not ground based weather radar, looking up, which would be able to see both storms. In fact, two other commercial flights made the same mistake the same night with the same storms but saw the second storm in time. Its not 'conspiracy theory' , its basic physics.
 
At the end of the programme they pointed out that all airlines apart from the French had replaced their pitot sensors and pilots are no longer trained to fly a planes manually as everything is controlled by automation. :eek:
 
Satellites look down so how can the little storm hide a hurricane? Load of bull.
 
It was the planes own radar that couldn't see the big storm behind the little one, nothing to do with satellites.
 
surely in this day and age the plane can be fed GPS data?
it doesn't need air speed indicators on the plane, the GPS will be able to tell you how fast it's going..

also the plane can be fed realtime data from satelites about the weather conditions en-route and with some degree of acuracy beable to predict storm patterns for the next few hours..
 
Surprised to see that black box recorders are made by Honeywell.

Gives me much more faith in their 3 port valves now!
 
It was the planes own radar that couldn't see the big storm behind the little one, nothing to do with satellites.

Don't be silly. If the plane were to fly into a hurricane they would be warned about it. Not only that they can fly through storms anyway. Volcanic ash doesn't show up on radar but they are warned about it aren't they?

"Hey boss there's a hurricane on the screen, shall we tell AF447?"

"Nah - they'll find out about it soon enough".
 
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