Mickey hit nail on the head. Whatever method you use, it will always be an approximation as the exact output given is only exact at the precise flow and return temperature used by the manufacturer. If memory serves, it is 75C in, 65C out and roomtemperature of 20C. In real life, this situation will only exist for a few minutes in a whole day, if that. One degree difference from the theoretical setup changes the output by 2 percent e.g. a rad that is listed for exactly 1 kW would be 40 watt off.
In winter you could have an average rad temperature of 75C and a room temperature of 10C when the heating starts, giving an "extra" output of well over 20%. At the same time, a lot of boilers are set at a much lower temperature which might only give 60C at the inlet of the rad, resulting in an average temperature difference with the room of only 40C, resulting in an output "loss" of around 20%.
And that is ignoring the millions of rads that are dirty inside, and thus not reaching the output even if the temperatures are exactly as designed.