WC gives a guess-figure for load, granted. If the boiler knows the return temperature, the temp of the house, the recent and past response of the house (all standard stuff) it doesn't need to know about weather.
If you used weather alone, and ignored the rest, you could be miles out.
I'm not suggesting a sensible designer would do that, but what irks me is the way some commentators -Alex Morrow I remember as one- can be found implying that without WC, a boiler doesn't modulate or doesn't condense.
As you can infer from the docs D_H cites, the weather is one of the things which affects the load, but it doesn't determine the load. If you have standard control metrics from the house, you don't need to know about it - in fact you could work out what its effect was.
If the WC device is just a dry thermometer in a plastic box on the wall, it's not going to be be ideal either. Sun, wind and rain all affect the cooling in a way not easy to predict from temperature alone.
Classical Control Theory is quite hard to implement. It strained my applied maths abilities considerably as an undergrad, but it's all been worked out by everyone now, for far more inputs that we ever considered. It used to be regarded as satisfactory to look at the P, I and D components of the primary metric response (in this case house temperature) alone. Things have moved on a bit. The CIBSE docs have some deeper stuff about that. This sort of control has been standard in big buildings for decades.
If you don't have a boiler which can measure and work on the numbers, then a straight outside temp measurement would give a usable guess, but it's not the best or only thing to use for lots of reason, some of which I've alluded to. As an
addition to a full set of other functionality built in to the system, it wouldn't have any use at all. WC might be better than nothing, but no boiler these days has "nothing".
how can a boiler tell the difference between a timer start in warm weather and a thermostat start in cold weather?
I'm not sure I see what you'e getting at here. If the boiler knows the room temp, it knows the demand is greater than it was yesterday if the RT is lower. It knows the return temperature, which would also reflect the room temp. It knows when it was firing last. If the house is slower to heat up than recently, it knows, and turns the gas up accordingly.
It doesn't need to know about Weather.
Back to what I was asking - what difference does which of these control improvements really make? The ESRU document takes too much at a time. It shows that some controls make some differences (fairly small, really) but isn't particularly relevant to the choices we make today with a system.