Now it's Honda leaving...

ellal said:
That's one hell of a 'slump' :LOL:

(slump: fall steeply, plummet, plunge)

But watch out...

notchy will be along soon to deride 'estimated/projected figures' ;)

(He can't of course provide any figures of his own to support the b ollox he spouts!)

Edit: Just spotted notchy is now claiming 'slowing car sales'...Wish he'd make up his mind :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Yup, like I said massive slump.

Do keep up old bean :whistle:

Heres some clues, Ive simpified it to a list of single words just for you:

China
Europe
diesel
regulations
 
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ellal said:
That's one hell of a 'slump' :LOL:

(slump: fall steeply, plummet, plunge)

But watch out...

notchy will be along soon to deride 'estimated/projected figures' ;)

(He can't of course provide any figures of his own to support the b ollox he spouts!)

Edit: Just spotted notchy is now claiming 'slowing car sales'...Wish he'd make up his mind :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

That's the long way of agreeing there's a slump in global sales.
 
Notch7 said:
Yup, like I said massive slump.

Do keep up old bean :whistle:

Heres some clues, Ive simpified it to a list of single words just for you:

China
Europe
diesel
regulations
Click to expand...
But still no figures...

Why's that?

Oh that's right, they're in your head :rolleyes:

All that is out there for last year and this year are estimated/predicted figures...
(but the ones industry is going by)

But that's not good enough proof for you, is it notchy?
 
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ellal said:
All that is out there for last year and this year are estimated/predicted figures...
Click to expand...

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

You're quick enough to rely on estimated figures to prop up your arguments.

Sales in the UK alone last year dropped by 6.8% and that's no estimate.

JLR, Nissan, Honda, Mini, Vauxhall etc are all missing the trick in electrical and hybrid. People aren't going to buy diesel when governments and council's say they're going to tax you for doing it.
 
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1097757185717780480

He can get a job in customs that we will be soon creating.

https://twitter.com/Wade73605662/status/1097765796787486720

Minford - a price worth paying.

The point missed is that as the industry shifts and retools there will be disclocations and when it comes to building new capacity if you do not have access to the market that will be counted as a negative.

The Swindon plant production was 80% petrol and it sold 90% of its production into EU so it wasn't affected by Dieselgate.
 
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SammyInnit said:
Sales in the UK alone last year dropped by 6.8% and that's no estimate.
Click to expand...
notchy's claim was about global car sales being in a slump/slowing/massive slump, not the UK...

The figures that you yourself provided in response merely show a levelling off of global sales ...

notchy can provide no figures to back up that claim of his of course, estimated/predicted or otherwise.
But I'm sure notchy would be the first to admit that the figures you posted mean nothing (in his eyes) because of that belief of his...

(something I have never claimed myself as figures are either the latest data available or the most reliable predictions - not fake news!)

So as you say, he can't have it both ways (y)

SammyInnit said:
People aren't going to buy diesel when governments and council's say they're going to tax you for doing it.
Click to expand...
But as yet, no details...

Who knows exactly what will happen when the ramifications become clearer.
(remember when diesel was the 'greener' alternative?)

An electric car may be zero emissions as to what doesn't come out the back, but the enviromental cost of say fracking (to produce the electricty) and the dangerous materials used in batteries also come at an enviromental cost that will have to be sorted out in the future!
 
ellal said:
The figures that you yourself provided in response merely show a levelling off of global sales ...
Click to expand...

In your mind a rise year on year since 1990 to a fall in 2017 with a projected same result at best for 18 and 19 is levelling off? Coincidentally right after emissions test cheat scandals and global warming being the 'hottest' global topic? Crazy theory but ok (y)
 
SammyInnit said:
In your mind a rise year on year since 1990 to a fall in 2017 with a projected same result at best for 18 and 19 is levelling off? Coincidentally right after emissions test cheat scandals and global warming being the 'hottest' global topic? Crazy theory but ok (y)
Click to expand...
So, going by your figures a doubling of global sales in the time period you mention followed by a 0.37% fall last year (2018, not 2017), and predicted levels of sales stagnant (levelling off) this year...

(level off: to stop increasing)

Hardly the 'massive slump' claimed by notchy. Crazy theory but ok (y)

And if 0.37% is a 'massive slump', then what would you call the 6.8% drop in UK sales?

But if you were to talk about recent investment in the UK car industry, then that has indeed seen a massive slump!
 
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SammyInnit said:
It's a suggested economic cost, not sure how much I should want to rely on it however as Gideon suggested we would be 500k jobs out etc on the day after the vote.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows
So we were told before hand that it would have an economic cost; not sure why anyone is surprised by it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week
However their source for said report, CER.eu, has a report out on the 27/01/19 that contradicts the £500m p/w figure which is apparently just an opinion Piece from the independent.
https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/bre...lic-purse-due-decision-quit-eu-research-shows
That's 173 short of 500.
It was the same author of both pieces giving the £500m p/w figure and the £17bn a year figure.
https://www.cer.eu/insights/cost-brexit-june-2018
These are also estimates and not based on fact.
Click to expand...
So the public finances (that's just the tax revenue etc!) is between £17bn and £25bn p.a. worse off, and you just want to quibble about the discrepancies in the estimates.

Taking the two car plants alone, Nissan and Honda:
7000 at Nissan (X 4 to account for knock-on effects) 28,000
3500 at Honda (X 4 to account for knock-on effect) 14,000

42,000 jobs alone from just two industrial closures, and you want to quibble about discrepancies in estimates.

What about the bigger picture?
 
SammyInnit said:
Curious why they didn't ask someone from Warwick uni which has a dedicated arm to battery and energy research.

https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/wmg/research/hvmcatapult/energyinnovationcentre/

Aston university are apparently famous for
Click to expand...
David Bailey is a British academic economist at the Aston Business School, Aston University, a Vice-Chair of the Regional Studies Association, and an editor of the journals Regional Studies and Policy Studies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Bailey_(economist)

upload_2019-2-19_18-1-41.png

​
I wonder what Warwick Uni think of Brexit, bearing in mind Prof David Bailey's comment.
When I have time I might look through some of the comments:
Warwick experts explore what economic policy should look like after Brexit
Each of the 25 authors tackles the question of what a post-financial crisis, post-Brexit economic policy should look like, with the aim of presenting accessible recommendations informed by robust, up-to-date research.
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econo...conomic_policy_should_look_like_after_brexit/
​
 
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jasonzyx said:
He is employed by Aston Uni. It is usual for organisations like EU to sponsor projects. It does not mean that the finance goes to the head of the project. He/She is responsible for the spending on the project.
Click to expand...
Direct or indirect,,,he ain’t going to dish the dirt on his sponsors,,now that would be Silly!
 
jasonzyx said:
David Bailey is a British academic economist at the Aston Business School, Aston University, a Vice-Chair of the Regional Studies Association, and an editor of the journals Regional Studies and Policy Studies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Bailey_(economist)

View attachment 159440
​
I wonder what Warwick Uni think of Brexit, bearing in mind Prof David Bailey's comment.
When I have time I might look through some of the comments:
Warwick experts explore what economic policy should look like after Brexit
Each of the 25 authors tackles the question of what a post-financial crisis, post-Brexit economic policy should look like, with the aim of presenting accessible recommendations informed by robust, up-to-date research.
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econo...conomic_policy_should_look_like_after_brexit/
​
Click to expand...


So are you talking about the economy or green motoring?

jasonzyx said:
So the public finances (that's just the tax revenue etc!) is between £17bn and £25bn p.a. worse off, and you just want to quibble about the discrepancies in the estimates.
Click to expand...

No I want to question the reliability. The discrepancies aren't here nor there if the same person is willing to make two vastly differing claims only based on a think tanks ideas and projection models.

You yourself have just made a presumption of what a knock on effect could be.
 
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