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Ssssssshhhhhh, don't mention Reform.
- Thread starter fillyboy
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ChatGPT reckons 50,000-60,000 in 2025
Small‑boat crossings (“Channel illegal immigrants”)
- 16,500+ individuals have crossed the English Channel in small boats so far in 202 5refugeecouncil.org.uk+4ft.com+4en.wikipedia.org+4.
- This marks a 42–45% increase compared to the same point in 2024 thesun.co.uk+2ft.com+2thesun.co.uk+2.
- News projections suggest up to 50,000 total crossings by the end of 2025 reuters.com+3thetimes.co.uk+3gov.uk+3.
Irregular migration overall
- According to the Refugee Council, there were 38,023 detected small‑boat arrivals in the 12 months ending March 2025 (up 22% year-on-year) thetimes.co.uk+4refugeecouncil.org.uk+4thescottishsun.co.uk+4.
- The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates 43,630 irregular arrivals in 2024, of which 84% were small‑boat crossings fullfact.org.
Estimating illegal arrivals so far in 2025
Given these data:- As of mid‑June 2025, 16,500+ small‑boat arrivals have been recorded.
- Historically, small boats account for about 84–95% of irregular entries refugeecouncil.org.uk+1gov.uk+1.
| Scenario | Percentage via small boats | Implied total illegal entries |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 95% | ~17,400 |
| Mid | 90% | ~18,300 |
| High | 84% | ~19,650 |
Thus, the best current estimate suggests there have been ≈17,000–20,000 illegal (irregular) entrants into the UK so far in 2025.With projections pointing to up to 50,000 small‐boat crossings, total illegal entries could reach ≈52,600–60,000 by year-end if trends hold.
Key considerations & uncertainties
- “Illegal entries” include other routes like hidden lorry stowaways or unrecorded arrivals—but these are likely a small proportion.
- Data through mid‐June 2025; official quarterly releases (Home Office, ONS) provide more rigorous counts but lag slightly.
- Returns/deportations are very low: only 3% of small‑boat arrivals (4,995 people) were returned between 2018‑2024 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk+8gov.uk+8fullfact.org+8thetimes.co.uk+1theguardian.com+1gov.uk.
Summary
- ≈16,500 small-boat crossings so far in 2025.
- Estimated total illegal entries: ~17,000–20,000.
- Up to ~50,000 small-boat arrivals projected for the full year → possible total illegal entries of 50–60,000.
Key recent coverage on UK illegal migration statistics
ft.com
Keir Starmer says small boats crisis in English Channel is 'deteriorating'
Today
thetimes.co.uk
Channel taxi service makes a mockery of our laws
Today
thetimes.co.uk
Up to 50,000 migrants could cross Channel this year
16 days ago
To be fair, I think this approach will help
PM to cut visas for countries who fail to sign return agreements for illegal migrants
After talks at the G7 over the ‘deteriorating situation’ with Channel crossings, the PM vows to take tougher action
www.independent.co.uk
But not much given we don't get many people from countries with regular migration.
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under Labour: 16,317 6 months
under Tory: 22,500 6 months
under Labour: net migration down 50%
vote Labour if you want lower migration
vote Reform if you want a £80b hole in funding and a collapsed economy
Although the French authorities claim they're now intercepting more than two thirds of those boats before they reach the sea, the smugglers are now changing tactics to launch so-called "taxi boats" from new sites, in new ways, and with ever greater speed. Instead of inflating their boats in the dunes along the coast, close to police patrols, the gangs are launching them from better hidden locations, often dozens of kilometres from the main departure beaches. They then cruise along the coastline, like taxis or buses, picking up their paying customers who now wait in the sea, out of reach of the police. BBCnews MBK should now be on the lookout for a big yellow boat on his patrol route.
under Tories 22,500 arrived in same timeframe
Labour have a 26% decrease compared to Tories
customs checks are reduced since Brexit
Labour have sadly had to inherit Tories disastrous brexit
of course its not just stowaways, its also the increased risk of unsafe meat coming in
yes Tories record of returns has been abysmal
thankfully we now have a Labour government and deportation rates are increasing back to where they were under the previous highly successful Labour government
Labour as a party does not need attacking from anyone because they are failing dismally without any assistance or outside help
How are they ‘failing dismally’?Labour as a party does not need attacking from anyone because they are failing dismally without any assistance or outside help
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So the answer is no you don't know how to calculate an average.
where are you getting 22,500 from? or is this more evidence that maths is a struggle for you.
Even Kier Starmer admits it's not going well. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/17/starmer-admits-channel-migrant-crisis-is-getting-worse/
But Notchy keeps making up NotcyFacts™
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I have an amazing job.Don't any of you lot work lol
the answer is yes
a migrant worker contributes more to the economy than an UK worker, thats a fact
45,755 people arrived in 12 month of 2022 under a Conservative govt
therefore 22,500 arrived in 6 months of 2022 under a Conservative govt.
so far the numbers that have arrived are 26% less than Tories
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That can't be a fact, some probably do but not all?
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