Sterling Falls...

[securespark]

...to 31 year low against $.

At the moment, the new start Brexite(e)rs were voting for looks a bit like a crisis for the country.

 

[Brigadier]

To be expected. It will settle and regain.

Shame so much credence is put on a bunch of, effectively, gamblers.

 

[charliegolf]

Bought my dollars Tuesday!

 

[woodbine]

Will settle down after a period of uncertainty that markets never like. If we had economies like some of the PIIGS members of The EU that we used to be a member of (great to be able to say those words) - we would have every reason to be worried. Our economic fundamentals are worlds away from countries like Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. Think about it. We weren't in the Euro, but it didn't stop the world wanting to invest in UK PLC.

 

[JohnD]

Apparently this "period of uncertainty" will take years.

 

[JohnD]

"Azad Zangana, senior European economist at Schroders, said on a conference call this morning that the decision would likely lead to a "significant delay or even cancellation of investment projects in the UK", something he had seen evidence of up to six months ago as focus on the referendum intensified.

"The UK benefits disproportionately from [foreign] direct investment so it will be a bigger shock than most people anticipate."

He added the risk of recession was now at 35-40 per cent, which he described as "very elevated indeed".

Piers Hillier, chief investment officer at Royal London Asset Management, said: "On the back of this morning’s result we expect the UK will fall into a recession.

"Unfortunately, I see unstable market conditions lasting for between three and five years whilst new trade agreements are drawn up."

Arif Husain, head of international fixed income at T Rowe Price, said the decision by the UK to leave the EU would have a global impact.

"People forget the impact that Greece had – and Greece is much smaller than the UK, and not a financial centre," he said. “The vote to leave could result in a global recession - the chances of this have risen above 50 per cent.""

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk...e=emailCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=

Isn't that what you expected?

 

[EFLImpudence]

He added the risk of recession was now at 35-40 per cent,

I will admit that I am not very good with probability theory, but whatever does that mean?

 

[JohnD]

Surely "100% probability" means "Certain to happen"
0% means certain not to happen
10% means will happen in one case out of ten
So 35-40% means he thinks there is a more than 1 in 3 chance.

Probability can only be tested in large numbers of cases, for example if ten million smokers puff fags for 20 years and half of them die of lung cancer, we can tell the average smoker that he has a 50% chance of dying from it. So will never know how accurate his assessment is.

 

[JohnD]

I wonder what the probability is that the Outists were right, and everything will be fine.

 

[EFLImpudence]

So 35-40% means he thinks there is a more than 1 in 3 chance.

So, he thinks it 60-65% unlikely.

Probability can only be tested in large numbers of cases, for example if ten million smokers puff fags for 20 years and half of them die of lung cancer, we can tell the average smoker that he has a 50% chance of dying from it. So will never know how accurate his assessment is.

Exactly. Is the rest of the article equally accurate?

 

[EFLImpudence]

I wonder what the probability is that the Outists were right, and everything will be fine.

I would say 50/50. Either it will or it won't.

As I kept irritating people during the campaign - no one will know what would have happened with the other option.

 

[securespark]

that we used to be a member of

Errr...we still are at the moment.

 

[anobium]

What are the chances us regaining the European title we had the last time we were out of the EU. "The Sick Man of Europe."
While we are at it lets jack mortgage rates back up to 15%. Get rid of all those rights given to workers by the EU.
On a final note I worry for those who are approaching retirement as their pensions are going to take a hit.
Whats that saying, "you reap what you sow"

 

[EFLImpudence]

What are the chances us regaining the European title we had the last time we were out of the EU. "The Sick Man of Europe."

That was due to bad British management.

Now everything is owned by foreign companies, there is no reason for the situation to return.

 

[anobium]

What are the chances us regaining the European title we had the last time we were out of the EU. "The Sick Man of Europe."

That was due to bad British management.

Now everything is owned by foreign companies, there is no reason for the situation to return.

Suppose the IMF bailout of the UK in the 70s was due to bad British management too.
Don't get me wrong I agree that the Eu is far from perfect but I'm old enough to remember all the co ck ups our sovereign governments made.