Stock market dealing

[Odds]

Argentina's new government says it will weaken the value of its currency by more than 50% against the US dollar.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo also announced deep cuts to public spending.

BBCnews-business.com

Since inflation is currently at 200% i guess they're going to try a spot of Tory-austerity to try and make sense of their economy.

 

[JohnD]

The Santa Claus rally has been kick-started today by a comment from the US Federal Reserve chair that interest rates will be coming down.

BoE and ECB spoil market rally triggered by Fed rate cut forecast

European central bankers warn it is too soon to declare victory over inflation

www.ft.com

The effects are especially conspicuous in the Commercial Property sector, which is very dependent on the cost of loans.

Can you spot the date the news came out?

 

[Odds]

The Santa Claus rally has been kick-started today by a comment from the US Federal Reserve chair that interest rates will be coming down.

BoE and ECB spoil market rally triggered by Fed rate cut forecast

European central bankers warn it is too soon to declare victory over inflation

www.ft.com

The effects are especially conspicuous in the Commercial Property sector, which is very dependent on the cost of loans.

Can you spot the date the news came out?

View attachment 325196

You'll have to point out the significance of December 6th to simple souls like me, Johnny Dee. was it your birthday?

 

[JohnD]

You'll have to point out the significance of December 6th to simple souls like me, Johnny Dee. was it your birthday?

It's a one-week chart (approx)

 

[Justin Passing]

The Santa Claus rally has been kick-started today by a comment from the US Federal Reserve chair that interest rates will be coming down.

BoE and ECB spoil market rally triggered by Fed rate cut forecast

European central bankers warn it is too soon to declare victory over inflation

www.ft.com

The effects are especially conspicuous in the Commercial Property sector, which is very dependent on the cost of loans.

Can you spot the date the news came out?

View attachment 325196

The "Santa Claus Rally" gets earlier every year, it started on large cap companies some time last week. Prices are depressed in October, and rise through November, up to a traditional 7 day rally over Christmas. People anticipate it and buy "before" - which of course pushes prices up early. Apple (11% of the nasdaq, and about double the size of the FTSE 100) has just hit an all-time high. This year, Santa may herald a big sell-off.

Of course theres a rise in the real estate sector. The US sector has risen 10+% in the last month, and we're lagging them on interest rate suppression - or anticipation of. A lot of businesses are sensitive to interest rate changes. Solar panel installers benefit too, and on and on.
You buy before the rate announcements because you always know which way things will go if at all, which us usually not at all. That was one of the two uk Real Estate Investment Trusts which reacted to give us a few% jump. The UK wasn't expected to change rate either. Just imagine if it were.
4-5%? That's not much of a jump at all. Ordinary household names can do it .
E.g. on the same day, Ocado went up about 14%. Are we going to get some snide accociation with rich people who shop using Ocado and their multi million pound mortgages?


Some of the REITs have held up particularly well because of a specialised commercial/industrial/lab arm - contrary to what you might have just read, where the tenants can't move their business and its plant easily, so they pay the rent. SO if you pick your investment REIT wisely you are resistant to inflation reducing your profits or dividends.

There is a "rotation" in investing urges going on right now. That's something which happens every so often when one sector has been overheated for a while. I referred to it before. It will be towards sectors other than high tech, though nobody know how big a deal "AI" will prove to be.
Property, finance/banking and health and others, are seeing piques of interest, though not as much as big hedge fund manager Warren Buffet thought when he bought into builders a few months/weeks ago.
He's still big in Apple. Apple's dividend isn't something people think of as a major incentive to buy, but Uncle Warren gets HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of Apple dividend dollars dropped down his chimney every quarter. Then he gives a ton of money to The Bill Gates Foundation.

 

[Justin Passing]

Another friend of a friend asked me for a "how to" on day trading, a couple of - edit 3, weeks ago. Oh gawd, I thought, this is going to go bad.
I asked how much he could afford to lose.
He asked why he should lose, so I said it was because he wouldn't do what I told him. He knew a little bit, like what "going short" means.
If anyone wants I can refer to posts where I already exp[lained. You also need to know what Stop, and Limit orders are, and Stop Losses and Take Profit Limits. Broadly that's Buy when the price hits X (the STOP), arrang that it will sell by itself it of drops (the Stop Loss), or if it hits a certain level of Profit which you Take. not hard.
The list was more or less like this:
Open a trading account. eToro will do. Learn how to use it. You can use a demo account with imaginary money. If you can make a profit on that, move to real money. Start with $1 trades. When that works, multiply. YOu can use larger stakes,a nd use 5x leverage.
Look at a live trading youtube channel.
Copy what they do, on 2-3 tickers.
They will tell you, pre market open, buy Tesla if it rises through $250, - or similar.
Don't try to copy their dinky little trades, you won't be able to do those.
Critical - if the price seems to be reversing on you don't close, hold on if they hold on. This feels ver unnatural. Occasionally they/you will have to stop early and take a loss, but it shouldn't be much.

He says he started with £1000 but added another £1000 to it. He ignored my suggestion to limit a trade to 5% of his "pot". He's up to £13000 now. I advised him to bank £10k of it and start again. Bet he doesn't, he's a flash git.

He also did something I talked about but didn't expect him to do:
The Asian markets are open at night, our time.
If the yanks have done well, often they will too. I don't remember them go the other way. You can trade any Index as a whole.
Just after midnight you can look at HK to check, or buy the day before, depending..
Standard leverage on indices is 10:1
You check the direction, wait for the spread to clear so you can sleep, set a stop loss and a trailing stop, (at that point you can't lose if you "insure" the SL) and go to bed. If it goes say 5% off the start and into the first few hours - which it has - that's 5% leveraged at 10:1 which is 50%, literally overnight. He went big and it worked. Why haven't I? I dunno really. I shall - the underlined bit is key.

 

[Justin Passing]

I forgot. I opened an account at eToro at the end of August but never used it. I thought.
But I was wrong, I stuck $5000 in it. ANd then evidently on to Rolls as they were likely to do ok.
But it's not 5k any more:

Better than discovering a quid down the back of the sofa.

 

[Justin Passing]

Wot I rote a couple of posts up, works fine.

You find the stocks. There are ways for that in UK/USA, most of which I've mentioned.
BUt you can just look at recently history and see if it's carrying on.

Take Affirm - a US companmy which is developing well, (payment processing in retail)
Since the beginning of November, it's gone up, by 180%. When it goes up it's a run of 5-12% or so, then it drops back. So you sell on the turn , and make on it as it falls as much as when it rose. The last few days, I sold most of it at the end of each the day.
That's plenty of notice - like 7 weeks, so everyone knows.

Everyone's DOG knows crypto currencies have been rising.
Co's I mentioned, COIN & MARA and a couple of others have been going up as fast. One a bit more than the other then they swap round.

At night, Hong Kong opens at1:30am, which is a bit late, but Japan is midnight.
There's not much I've found which discusses the prospects of Japanese cos. but you can just look at previous results and see if they continue.
Bottom line, a couple of them have done well enough that I could set up a trade then go to bed, and clear 5-22% in a night.

Their market is open midnight to 6/8a.m. The stock goes up from midnight if it's going to, so you buy, and watch. After a few minutes if it has "won" the spread (difference in buy-sell price, then you can set a stop-loss, and you won't lose. You can just let it run, or set a "trailing" stop loss, or fixed selling points, or a combination. You don't get all the gain, but most out of it works ok.
Three stocks did all that - Kawasaki and Nomura shipping in Japan, and Mongolia Mining in HK.
As I also said, you leverage 5:1.
SO in the days and nights of Mon-Thursday this week, (today was flat as a fart) , the stake has multipled by 3 or so. Probably my best % rise yet. Can't quite believe it. Imagine trebling your savings in less than a week.

 

[Odds]

The movement for Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions against Israel – known as BDS – has been driving the world a little bit mad. Since its founding 13 years ago, it has acquired nearly as many enemies as the Israelis and Palestinians combined. It has hindered the efforts of Arab states to fully break their own decades-old boycott in pursuit of increasingly overt cooperation with Israel. It has shamed the Palestinian Authority government in Ramallah by denouncing its security and economic collaboration with Israel’s army and military administration. It has annoyed the Palestine Liberation Organization by encroaching on its position as the internationally recognised advocate and representative of Palestinians worldwide.

Nathan Thrall@the Guardian

 

[Justin Passing]

Wrong thread, Bodd??
The Market is largely about Crypto stocks at the moment.
I do have access to bitcoin and the others directly, but I use the exchanges' stocks, $MARA and $COIN, and a miner $HUT8.
The fizz kinda alternates between them. Coin was a bit lazy today at 7%, so folk sat in the other two, which gained 16% each.
Over a recent period, Mara has upped 185% in a month, 288% in 3 months.

It's as close as there is to a sure thing.
As said before you can "leverage" those, x5. A total of x 10 would have been easy.
I tend to dip in and out, but today, 16% x 5 is 80%, which is OK. If your life savings were 100k and you were still working, you would have gained a year's pay in a day. How much could yo have lost? Well if you'd fed the investment in slowly, with stop losses set so you couldn't come out with less than your input, you would have got maybe half, say 8% Still x5 though.
To illustrate, if you start with 101 and the Spread (buy to sell difference) is 1, you could lose 1. You put your stop-loss at 100. So you could lose 1.. Your 100 is working as 500. WHen the 500 has moved to say 502, you're 2 up, so your potential loss is covered, You adjust your stop, up a bit. etc

The xmas rally should carry on a few days, but somehow it feels like there will be a correction , maybe end of January. They're quite common. That means a drop of 6-8% in prices.
Cash and oil if it's trending up, would be good fallbacks.

IN the meanwhile, I fancy Lithium, symbol $LIT, because there's a rash of new EVs to buy after Christmas.
Another plain but good-looking chart is Roblox.

 

[handyman1976]

don't try to time the market! make money with your skills and funnel all that money into index funds! over time your guaranteed to win. no point trying to day trade and lose it all

 

[Justin Passing]

don't try to time the market! make money with your skills and funnel all that money into index funds! over time your guaranteed to win. no point trying to day trade and lose it all

You don't make several percent a day on an index, on the whole.
Sector indices, or their ETF's, are well worth using rather than the overall S&P, say. I'm not "timing" it, I'm reacting to what I see - same as any other day trader. MARA went up 12% yesterday, and back down again as suspected 9% today. So, depending when you could access it, that's 21% of movement you can profit from. That's a multiple of the 3% you'd get if you just left money in the stock. And that was twice as much as the sector as a whole, which was more than twice the index, and so on.

12 stocks in the S&P are up more than 100% (101% to 236%) in the year up to today. That's only 2.4% of the S & P, which only went up 25.8% .
You & I could possibly name many of those stocks. Apple, Google, don't actually make it.
If you picked a sector you'd do better, eg IT did 52%, Nasdaq did 50%, and the leveraged qqq5 did 438%.
I wasn't playing the game for most of the year, but when the Q's have done well daytraders have done much better. I'm not very good at it but yeah, floors wiped.
Even that qqq5 index DROPPED 50% or so percent mid year, so if you'd avoided that and made better use of the drop, you'd have cleared 600% easy.
There's another ETF, the TQQQ, which you can leverage 5:1 very easily. Well that's well over 1000% per annum, and if you avoided most of the drop on THAT.....

And you want to put your money on the Footsie 100?
Putting it all a different way, which index were you thinkiing of, and did it double in a year? Probably not. Doubling your money in a year only needs 0.3% per day. Given that you can profit just as easily from a falling price as a rising one, it really isn't very difficult to achieve doubling in a year.
And you want to put your money on the Footsie 100?

Here it is, 5.6% in the last year:

"Well, it would have been better than the Halifax"

Sure.

 

[handyman1976]

You don't make several percent a day on an index, on the whole.
Sector indices, or their ETF's, are well worth using rather than the overall S&P, say. I'm not "timing" it, I'm reacting to what I see - same as any other day trader. MARA went up 12% yesterday, and back down again as suspected 9% today. So, depending when you could access it, that's 21% of movement you can profit from. That's a multiple of the 3% you'd get if you just left money in the stock. And that was twice as much as the sector as a whole, which was more than twice the index, and so on.

12 stocks in the S&P are up more than 100% (101% to 236%) in the year up to today. That's only 2.4% of the S & P, which only went up 25.8% .
You & I could possibly name many of those stocks. Apple, Google, don't actually make it.
If you picked a sector you'd do better, eg IT did 52%, Nasdaq did 50%, and the leveraged qqq5 did 438%.
I wasn't playing the game for most of the year, but when the Q's have done well daytraders have done much better. I'm not very good at it but yeah, floors wiped.
Even that qqq5 index DROPPED 50% or so percent mid year, so if you'd avoided that and made better use of the drop, you'd have cleared 600% easy.
There's another ETF, the TQQQ, which you can leverage 5:1 very easily. Well that's well over 1000% per annum, and if you avoided most of the drop on THAT.....

And you want to put your money on the Footsie 100?
Putting it all a different way, which index were you thinkiing of, and did it double in a year? Probably not. Doubling your money in a year only needs 0.3% per day. Given that you can profit just as easily from a falling price as a rising one, it really isn't very difficult to achieve doubling in a year.
And you want to put your money on the Footsie 100?

Here it is, 5.6% in the last year:
View attachment 326878
"Well, it would have been better than the Halifax"

Sure.

the s&p 500 has returned 10% every year for that past 50+ years.

 

[Justin Passing]

the s&p 500 has returned 10% every year for that past 50+ years.

10%. Pathetic, isn't it.

BItcoin is going nuts, as you probably know. So as I explained, daytraders like wot I'm having a go at being, are sticking money in appropriate places. We have about 30% this week, leveraged that's 150%. But it has been a short week because it was telly day on the 25th , and it's only Friday mid day.
It was quite a revelation when I started. With "nothing happening" and useful inputs undiscovered, I was only making a couple of percent on a really good day. Then I realised that 1% a day is 730% per annum. (200 days a year)

This afternoon wil be quiet, but you would look at
Fisker, to go upwards from 155
AMD, buy if it gets up to 150.40. If it drops instead, should be a buy at 148

Hut8 buy if it breaks 17, COIN, MARA, - watch, as all are crypto related.

ARM - watch for dips to come back up.

UBER, + NVDA.
One always keeps an eye on the magnificent7/8 -
Apple, AMD, Alphabet(Google), Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla. And Netflix.
On your seventh monitor you have the likes of Roblox, Shopify ,Paypal, Nikola. Palentir, AVGO , Affirm. Boeing and a few others which have moved recently.

But unless you have infinite resources, just plump for a couple, using an extra if the chosen 2 go quiet.

If there isn't a couple of percent in there somewhere I'll give everyone a mince pie. I'm sure we have enough left.

 

[Justin Passing]

Well that was an easy day. Fisker went up 17% steadily and then down 10%. That's 27% of moves.
Hut8 and Mara were fast movers so used them usefully too. Like around 15:00-15:20, Hut8 moved 7%.. That's 34%. You split the stake and shift it sideways to fill in flatter times.
At end of day a couple of the others moved usefully too like AMD and Nvidia so we moved to those for an odd 4%.
Here's the #1 pick, Fisker: The green line is the first 15% rise. The day was several trades, so it came out around 32% which is unusually high. You always miss a bit between swaps.
It would have been easier to just sit in either Fisker, or Mara, or Hut8, take the 15 - 20 % and be happy. ( within a couple of hours, too). I wouldn't argue against it.

So there it is. I said what I was gonna do, and showed the result. That 30 odd percent is geared x5, so it becomes 150%.

There it is.
It takes a bit of practise to manage the psychology. That's 95% of the "skill".
You have to accept that you will never get it "right".
Then it just becomes mechanical.

You don't need to be bright, but, and this is going to appear insulting, you have to be bright enough to realise that if someone has just shown one ordinary index moving only 5%, you don't say "ah but" and show one which did 10%, ( when they'd just cited better indices anyway) because its low gain is insignificantly different for the comparison with hundreds of % plus. So it was a pointless/ illogical/ dumb thing to do. You sir obviously were not thinking straight, because you wanted to nitpick, albeit with an irrelevance. Therefore you will let your emotions get the better of you, trying to make a profit. Everyone does, to begin with. You can practise with virtual money, though, until you get it right.


If one could make 30 odd% a trading day, a quid would turn into tens of billions in a year. One can't often make 30 or 150% in a day, but I just did, from free online advice. So can anyone reading this. I hope the penny is dropping, that anyone with self control can make money easily.
The whole money trading thing is a stupid system but it works.
Even say a single working person could have put £100 on Fisker at lunchtime, (market opens 14:30) set the order to close at the first reversal (9%) and at end of day have gained a good return. Some DO, of course.
(If the price wasn't rising the order wouldn't trigger, and if it immediately went backwards after the trigger level they'd lose a couple of percent off the trigger level, which might be at + a couple of percent, so they'd come out even.