The phase out of ice engines..

[pcaouolte]

Saw a chance to up the premiums, and grabbed it

No increase in premium, just restrictions on where we can store and charge lithium based batteries. We either comply or they remove fire cover from the insurance policy. They are reducing their risk, not increasing the premium.

 

[SimonH2]

They are reducing their risk, not increasing the premium.

With good reason :

That's just a small selection. The common theme is that once a cell goes into thermal runaway, there's little you can do but withdraw to a safe distance. There's often little time between the first warning signs, and the first cell conflagrating - and in quick order, all the rest of the cells in the pack go up.
Typically, the process is so energetic that shrapnel is thrown great distances.

While other battery technologies have their problems, Li is in a league of it's own when it comes to the effects.

 

[Avocet]

With good reason :

That's just a small selection. The common theme is that once a cell goes into thermal runaway, there's little you can do but withdraw to a safe distance. There's often little time between the first warning signs, and the first cell conflagrating - and in quick order, all the rest of the cells in the pack go up.
Typically, the process is so energetic that shrapnel is thrown great distances.

While other battery technologies have their problems, Li is in a league of it's own when it comes to the effects.

Couple of things there:

1. You do realise that e-scooters and bikes aren't regulated by the same regulations that cover cars, don't you? The latter are, (you'll perhaps not be surprised to hear) just a tad more stringent!

2. Some types of lithium ion cell are less prone to thermal runaway than others. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP), for example) are way less likely to experience it than nickel manganese cobalt (NMC). Only about half the EVs currently manufactured use NMC batteries and that percentage is falling. You did know there were different sort of lithium batteries... right...?

3. Would you be able to put a number on it for us, this "little time" between the first warning signs and the "conflagration" in a car? What are we talking here, for a typical electric car? A couple of seconds? Minutes? Hours?

4. Could you give us a couple of examples of people getting killed or injured by this "shrapnel" from an electric car battery please?

 

[SimonH2]

Couple of things there:

1. You do realise that e-scooters and bikes aren't regulated by the same regulations that cover cars, don't you? The latter are, (you'll perhaps not be surprised to hear) just a tad more stringent!

Yes, absolutely aware of that.

2. Some types of lithium ion cell are less prone to thermal runaway than others. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP), for example) are way less likely to experience it than nickel manganese cobalt (NMC). Only about half the EVs currently manufactured use NMC batteries and that percentage is falling. You did know there were different sort of lithium batteries... right...?

Absolutely. Yes, some are LESS of a problem, not NO problem - though I believe some of the solid electrolyte ones being developed could come close.

3. Would you be able to put a number on it for us, this "little time" between the first warning signs and the "conflagration" in a car? What are we talking here, for a typical electric car? A couple of seconds? Minutes? Hours?

Try watching some of the videos (and there's plenty more online) - between "a few seconds" and "couple of minutes", definitely not hours.
If you look at this video (start at 1:38) you can see that from "not long after the smoke started" to blowtorch is under a minute. I've seen internal videos from test establishments with similar times.

4. Could you give us a couple of examples of people getting killed or injured by this "shrapnel" from an electric car battery please?

Are you claiming it doesn't happen ?
The laws of physics are not unknown. If you release the sort of energy (especially the volume of gasses involved) then you aren't going to contain that with teh sort of casing that would be acceptable on a mass produced car (mostly due to weight, but cost would be a major factor too.)
Again, unfortunately not a public video, I've seen a recording of a nail penetration test (yes, that's a thing for the Chinese market) where even if you completely ignored the heat and toxic gasses, you would not want to be anywhere nearby - the case burst and bits went flying.


My background is in the marine environment - we have "interesting" challenges (not least you can't just run away) with Li batteries that make the EV issues seem fairly trivial.

 

[robinbanks]

Not in the slightest bit interested in going and finding some videos that show petrol is flammable, but I probably could if I genuinely believed you were unawares

 

[Avocet]

Yes, absolutely aware of that.

OK, so long as we all know that. Wouldn't want to go mixing up cheap (and quite possibly illegal) Chinese scooter batteries with type approved EV batteries and end up inadvertently giving folk the impression that the fire risks for EVs were far higher than they really were, would we?

Absolutely. Yes, some are LESS of a problem, not NO problem - though I believe some of the solid electrolyte ones being developed could come close.

Good man! Yes, less of a problem. So basically, EVs in general are about 20 times less likely than ICEs to go up in smoke, and SOME EVs are even less likely than that! Always worth keeping a sense of perspective, eh?

Try watching some of the videos (and there's plenty more online) - between "a few seconds" and "couple of minutes", definitely not hours.
If you look at this video (start at 1:38) you can see that from "not long after the smoke started" to blowtorch is under a minute. I've seen internal videos from test establishments with similar times.

Oh not MGuy! I'm gutted that I clicked on your link and inadvertently ended up giving that Muppet another "hit"! He's the Australian equivalent of "Geoff Buys Cars" over here! Both anti-EV propagandists who specialise in anti-EV clickbait to line their own pockets and aren't terribly concerned about whether what they're sharing is true or not. So in this case, he cuts to a smoking EV. We don't know how long it's been smoking - or indeed why. We don't know that for days / miles previous to that point, it wasn't giving all sorts of warnings, and dashboard lights, but let's forget about that one for the moment and just pretend that it only just started because that makes things look more dramatic.

And yes, they certainly WERE dramatic (not denying that) a few minutes later. Didn't notice any "shrapnel" though?

Are you claiming it doesn't happen ?
The laws of physics are not unknown. If you release the sort of energy (especially the volume of gasses involved) then you aren't going to contain that with teh sort of casing that would be acceptable on a mass produced car (mostly due to weight, but cost would be a major factor too.)
Again, unfortunately not a public video, I've seen a recording of a nail penetration test (yes, that's a thing for the Chinese market) where even if you completely ignored the heat and toxic gasses, you would not want to be anywhere nearby - the case burst and bits went flying.

Well it certainly didn't happen int that clip, did it?! I haven't come across it, no. But if you have some credible evidence, I'll happily look at it. And no, you aren't going to contain an explosion in (well, pretty much anything, really). Nor are the battery packs designed to even attempt to do so. That's why you don't really get the shrapnel. They vent the burning gas, rather than explode.

Nothing secret about nail penetration tests. Here's one of an older nickel manganese cobalt battery undergoing one (note no explosion), followed by one of their new generation:

My background is in the marine environment - we have "interesting" challenges (not least you can't just run away) with Li batteries that make the EV issues seem fairly trivial.

 

[SimonH2]

So basically, EVs in general are about 20 times less likely than ICEs to go up in smoke, and SOME EVs are even less likely than that! Always worth keeping a sense of perspective, eh?

Says the person caught posting meaningless and deliberately misleading statistics (back on page 2)

They vent the burning gas, rather than explode.

At what point did I say explode ?
A vent will only go so far, after that something will have to give.

Nothing secret about nail penetration tests. Here's one of an older nickel manganese cobalt battery undergoing one (note no explosion), followed by one of their new generation:

Your attempt to mislead is noted - at what point did I mention explosion ?
And would you want to be close to that conflagration - yes I do know the difference between that and explosion.

 

[Avocet]

Says the person caught posting meaningless and deliberately misleading statistics (back on page 2)

No. I think you accused me of that, but I explained to you (not that I should really have had to ) in Post#48 why they weren't misleading. Looks like you still haven't managed to get your head round that...

At what point did I say explode ?

How do you get "shrapnel" without an explosion?

A vent will only go so far, after that something will have to give.

Why? Doesn't that depend on the size of the vent and the flow rate passing through it?

Your attempt to mislead is noted - at what point did I mention explosion ?

Change the record... Once again, how do you get "shrapnel" without an explosion?

And would you want to be close to that conflagration

No I wouldn't. Just like I wouldn't want to be close to this one:

...or this one...

...or indeed, any of the almost 20,000 (almost all ICE) road vehicle fires every year in this country...

- yes I do know the difference between that and explosion.

Your previous posts suggest otherwise...

 

[SimonH2]

How do you get "shrapnel" without an explosion?

Once again, how do you get "shrapnel" without an explosion?

Well that demonstrates that you do not have a clue. An explosion is not a prerequisite for shrapnel.

In the context of this thread, cells fail & go into thermal runaway. Pressure builds up, and if the gas generation exceeds the ability of the casing to vent/withstand it - case bursts.

When the case bursts, the pressurised gas between the cells will expand and propel "stuff" outwards. Obviously we know there are cells in there - but by this point, there will be bits of broken down cells, the burst disks from the failed cells, inter-cell straps, ...


So go one, keep digging your hole.

 

[Avocet]

Well that demonstrates that you do not have a clue. An explosion is not a prerequisite for shrapnel.

In the context of this thread, cells fail & go into thermal runaway. Pressure builds up, and if the gas generation exceeds the ability of the casing to vent/withstand it - case bursts.

When the case bursts, the pressurised gas between the cells will expand and propel "stuff" outwards. Obviously we know there are cells in there - but by this point, there will be bits of broken down cells, the burst disks from the failed cells, inter-cell straps, ...


So go one, keep digging your hole.

I see, so we're going to play a synonym game where we have to describe an "explosion" without using the word "explosion" are we...?

OK, we won't say "explosion" then. We'll talk about a buildup of pressure causing something to burst and propelling stuff outwards... (because that's something completely different to an explosion. Chalk and cheese in fact...)

Now then... How are you getting on with answering my question, by the way? (Just in case you've "forgotten" it, here's a little reminder:

"Could you give us a couple of examples of people getting killed or injured by this "shrapnel" from an electric car battery please"?

 

[robinbanks]

causing something to burst and propelling stuff outwards

I believe the phrase you're looking for is "rapid unscheduled disassembly"

(said the man who makes EVs but was commenting on one of his hydrocarbon-powered devices at the time)

 

[SimonH2]

OK, we won't say "explosion" then. We'll talk about a buildup of pressure causing something to burst and propelling stuff outwards... (because that's something completely different to an explosion. Chalk and cheese in fact...)

So you don't in fact actually know what you're talking about then
Keep digging.

 

[Avocet]

So you don't in fact actually know what you're talking about then
Keep digging.

Yes, I think that probably is what you'd see... (Whether you're right or not, is a completely different question, of course...)

 

[Avocet]

I believe the phrase you're looking for is "rapid unscheduled disassembly"

(said the man who makes EVs but was commenting on one of his hydrocarbon-powered devices at the time)

Indeed! But I suppose I should be pleased that our man Simon here, now seems to be going to extraordinary lengths to tell us that he never claimed EV batteries "explode". Really, I'm inclined to agree with him. It is indeed a very rare event.... Maybe he's a closet EV fanboy after all?

 

[Brigadier]

Back to the original thread title, FWIW I think it is not the right question / postulate.

By any measure, EV motors pizz over ICE, unless you like noise, vibration, the excitement of finding out which of the myriad bits has gone tits up when your car won't go ........................


It's the batteries, baby