its called thinking ahead
if x happens what will the response be
dare say all of these questions are being asked in nato behind closed doors now
UK Defence Policy (hardware & troops)
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its called thinking ahead
if x happens what will the response be
dare say all of these questions are being asked in nato behind closed doors now
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Slightly OT but this is what someone was saying on a news prog last night. Much EU/UK policy has been based on the premise of 'everything's by and large peaceful, we're all kind of getting along.' Then, when something like this happens, the EU thinks 'oops, we emmm get quite a lot of our gas from them.'
complacency.
Europe have bought more and more gas and oil from Russia, because it’s cheap.
And the revenue has been spent on building a huge army.
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I'm starting to think Putin wants to fight Nato and do it in Ukraine. The constant suggestions that anything anybody does would be declaration of war is starting to sound like that's his objective. Today he said sanctions were a declaration of war. Next it will be sending aid.
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How about getting a group of news agencies brodcasting
Maybe he's got a terminal disease and wants to leave a lasting impression.
Yes at the moment he's playing bully. Do anything he doesn't like and you get nuked.
So what are the options? Get the US to send some help? He'd presumably not attack them, and start ww3 over that.
Maybe some non nato country could remonstrate? Israel was mentioned. They're nuclear non Nato.
Some alliance including China to suggest killing should stop and negotiations take place?
Maybe he's got a terminal disease and wants to leave a lasting impression.
Yes at the moment he's playing bully. Do anything he doesn't like and you get nuked.
So what are the options? Get the US to send some help? He'd presumably not attack them, and start ww3 over that.
Maybe some non nato country could remonstrate? Israel was mentioned. They're nuclear non Nato.
Some alliance including China to suggest killing should stop and negotiations take place?
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EU is waking up quickly to its dependency on Russian energy supplies, and Russia cannot afford to place any sanctions on its energy supplies. It would be counter-productive:
The problem with such an underdeveloped country (Russia) is that export earnings are subject to large fluctuations. Today, energy and commodity prices are very high. That has allowed Russia to pile up more than $600 billion in international reserves (dollars, euros, pounds, gold). It has also boosted the budgetary revenues of the Russian government. But those are temporary effects. They have created the illusion that Russia has the resources to wage a protracted war.
It is already clear that this is an illusion. About half of these international reserves are now being frozen by the punitive measures imposed by Western countries. This also makes clear how dependent an underdeveloped country is on the Western powers that control the international financial system. The vast stock of international reserves now available to Russia is not a source of power, but its Achilles heel.
Moreover, these high commodity prices are a temporary phenomenon. “What goes up must come down”. Gas prices, oil prices and commodity prices will fall again and will shrink the resources available to the Russian government and make a protracted conventional war impossible.
Russia is economically a small and fragile country. It is, however, big in two other dimensions. The first one comes from its large resources of energy (oil and gas) and raw materials. This provides Russia with a lot of political leverage in Europe. Russia may cut off deliveries of gas to Europe in response to Western sanctions. This would certainly be painful in the short run in those countries that foolishly have made themselves too dependent on Russian gas. If Russia cuts its gas deliveries today, however, this would, in the longer run, destroy the main source of Russian foreign revenues as European countries would look for, and find alternatives. It would reduce even further Russia’s resources to wage war.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/02/russia-cannot-win-the-war/
It is already clear that this is an illusion. About half of these international reserves are now being frozen by the punitive measures imposed by Western countries. This also makes clear how dependent an underdeveloped country is on the Western powers that control the international financial system. The vast stock of international reserves now available to Russia is not a source of power, but its Achilles heel.
Moreover, these high commodity prices are a temporary phenomenon. “What goes up must come down”. Gas prices, oil prices and commodity prices will fall again and will shrink the resources available to the Russian government and make a protracted conventional war impossible.
Russia is economically a small and fragile country. It is, however, big in two other dimensions. The first one comes from its large resources of energy (oil and gas) and raw materials. This provides Russia with a lot of political leverage in Europe. Russia may cut off deliveries of gas to Europe in response to Western sanctions. This would certainly be painful in the short run in those countries that foolishly have made themselves too dependent on Russian gas. If Russia cuts its gas deliveries today, however, this would, in the longer run, destroy the main source of Russian foreign revenues as European countries would look for, and find alternatives. It would reduce even further Russia’s resources to wage war.
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/02/russia-cannot-win-the-war/
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