Ukraine counter offensive

[IT Minion]

I think you are missing the point, its a "here is a taste of what you could get, now lets sit down and talk about how much of your country I will take and the demilitarisation of the rest". Btw Little Boy was around 13kt yield - very much in the tactical class by today's standards.

I'm not convinced that Putin has tried everything to win the war. I think he may well consider a final destructive blow, before withdrawing. His goal now appears to be to cause so much destruction that Ukraine will be screwed for decades.

I think that's true, but that the most likely use of nuclear weapons is when/if Ukraine tries to retake Crimea.

It's hard to justify nuking a country you're trying to liberate from Nazis, but nuking the invading NATO horde as it tries to cross into Crimea? That is an easy sell, plus it would actually work.

Putin views Crimea as a done deal, it's Russian territory now for him. Losing that would be a much greater blow than losing the rest of the Donbas from 2014.

 

[Deleted member 174758]

Russia doesn't have to do anything but keep the taps turned off until it decides not to.

We'll see, tovarisch

 

[JohnD]

Russia doesn't have to do anything but keep the taps turned off until it decides not to.

Or until its customers learn to get by without it.

 

[wellyfish]

Or until its customers learn to get by without it.

Yes, until then. A tough few years ahead.

 

[wellyfish]

We'll see, tovarisch

I'm merely stating facts.

Can you explain why you try to label me as a Russian sympathiser - I take it that was the thrust of your comment - simply because I'm not slavishly quoting the official narrative?

 

[JohnD]

If you think war is tough, try living in Ukraine.

Or Russia.

 

[Pat ex]

I think you are missing the point, its a "here is a taste of what you could get, now lets sit down and talk about how much of your country I will take and the demilitarisation of the rest". Btw Little Boy was around 13kt yield - very much in the tactical class by today's standards.

I'm not convinced that Putin has tried everything to win the war. I think he may well consider a final destructive blow, before withdrawing. His goal now appears to be to cause so much destruction that Ukraine will be screwed for decades.

Hiroshima was an indiscriminate bombing of a civilian population with no relevant military targets.
It was intended to be a demonstration of a "look what we can do".
On that basis, and comparing it to your description of tactical nuclear bombing, it makes Hiroshima look like a use of tactical nuclear force. It was, of course, nothing of the sort. It was, by some measure, the largest destructive force know to man, at that time.

 

[ajohn]

"Rapid dominance is a military strategy based on the use of overwhelming power and spectacular displays of force to paralyse the enemy's perception of the battlefield and destroy their will to fight". i.e. Shock and awe

The USA found that didn't work as well as expected on Iraq using high end conventional weapons. The launches made good TV. The Ukraine war is somewhat different. It largely revolves around sides shelling each other out of populated areas plus Russia's apparently endless supply of grav style missiles. Ukraine - didn't have so many. Russia is a manufacturing country. Their weapons are largely DIY. What are their production rates?

There most recent action according to war in Ukraine is to damage two dams. The idea seems to be to cause some f;looding. Water can male a good defensive line - is that why - pass. Maybe they will be damaged further in the future?

I think he may well consider a final destructive blow, before withdrawing. His goal now appears to be to cause so much destruction that Ukraine will be screwed for decades.

Ukraine's economy is in tatters. Rebuilding cost estimates range up to $1t. The lowest I have heard was $750b. However blast damaged buildings are being rewindowed and it's questionable that these estimates are correct. The fact that they can't repay any loans has been pointed out very clearly recently by the EU. They are having problems with the ones they already had.

Lastly who says he is withdrawing? They still have control of a significant area. When I hear things like the Russians ran away in panic afraid I think propaganda. It may or may not be but be sure it will be used by both sides. No one seems to think this war will end soon. Russia's state income - there are indications that it is surviving largely down to high oil prices. There are fears amongst western politicians that their populations will get fed up of supporting Ukraine eventually. Putin will be well aware of that. It's part of his side of the economic war.

Areas to watch. The water supply to Crimea and the Donbas area plus the area providing access to Crimea that Putin never mentioned. The lack of Russians north of the Donbas helps both sides really as the length of the fighting line has been reduced. As they have recently shown the lack doesn't prevent them from causing problems there. Or anywhere else they might fancy. Ukraine can and has done similar within Russia itself.

I'd be inclined to think Russia will be determined to keep things going through the coming winter. The next few months may show if they can.

 

[ajohn]

Hiroshima was an indiscriminate bombing of a civilian population with no relevant military targets.

There was some sort of military supply components made there. Not sure what it was - ball races maybe or was that the other one. People around at the time thought the 2nd use was more of a test really. Some design change. Things then went nuclear shells and all sorts etc. That is the tactical area that is banned. It has it's problems for both sides. The neutron bomb gets around a lot of these but banned as they could be effectively used. They still do have a significant big bang type yield though.

ICBM war ideas seem to have changed. Multiple war heads rather than super big bangs. Leaves a choice of multiple targets or effectively carpet bombing an area eg London, severally messing up all of it.

A news item years ago suggested that once a country has achieved some conventional yield they can easily go hydrogen style for a rather larger one. It concerned India and Pakistan testing but wasn'y entirely clear about the subject. So in some ways pass. Size and other factors probably come into it as well.

 

[transam]

The EU will come around to
The UKs thinking over this Northern Ireland trading caper

I mean blimey how much fuss and trouble can Macrion actually make over sausages

 

[Charlie George]

The US national security advisor has said that russia is preparing for mobilization, also calling for referendums in occupied areas, and a lot of talk of using nuclear weapons if the newly formed parts of ?russia? are attacked by Ukraine, if so we may soon become more involved ourselves, as surely we can't sit back and watch the destruction of Ukraine.
Or it could all be a bluff to get Ukraine to negotiate on terms favourable to russia?

 

[transam]

This referendum caper could be a ploy in order so that the Russian public ? Accept mobilisation ?

Obviously the tefendum results are a fore gone conclusion which will
Than alllow Putin to play the

We are protecting the russian people card ??

 

[carmanmemoranda]

using nuclear weapons if the newly formed parts of ?russia? are attacked by Ukraine, if so we may soon become more involved ourselves, as surely we can't sit back and watch the destruction of Ukraine.

Puts the west in a very difficult place. Stand back and watch, hoping the sanctions and lack of longer term trade works enough, or get involved with all the possibilities that brings. Neither of them are good choices

 

[IT Minion]

This referendum caper could be a ploy in order so that the Russian public ? Accept mobilisation ?

Obviously the tefendum results are a fore gone conclusion which will
Than alllow Putin to play the

We are protecting the russian people card ??

I don't think there is a 'could' in there.

The law has/is being changed to allow mobilisation and block contract soliders from being able to refuse to take part in special military operations.

It's an escalation, but in terms of meaningful responses we don't have a huge amount of options. Germany could donate their old Leopard 1 tanks but I don't know how well they stack up against T72s. They were under armoured and under gunned.

 

[JohnD]

Once all the 1960's tanks, and their inexperienced crews, have been wiped out

What will be next?

Will Russians drag T34s out of museums and off war memorials? Will Bovington have to give theirs back?

https://www.ft.com/content/2433feba-b89a-440e-b4a7-2c8aa725ea18

“By the end of this year, the Kremlin will lose almost all of its artillery ammunition, almost all of its armoured vehicles, battle tanks and the main part of its ground forces,” says Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian military. “How can you continue the war without artillery and troops?”