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When Does Lockdown End?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by ReganAndCarter, 19 Feb 2021.

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  1. ReganAndCarter

    ReganAndCarter

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    The chancellor has just extended furlough and help for business to the summer. I thought vulnerable groups were going to be vaccinated by March or April. Why will they still be paying people to stay at home through summer?

    The criteria keeps changing. First a few weeks to flatten curve, then to stop NHS being overwhelmed. Now talk it's about getting death numbers lower. I thought cases, hospitalisations and deaths were greatly reducing?

    Why are the planning for lockdown in summer with mass vaccinations and the figures dropping? Get the feeling it's not going to end this year.
     
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  3. jonbey

    jonbey

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    Hospitals are still fuller than they were in April last year, another 454 deaths in last 24 hours, so a bit soon to celebrate.

    I guess when deaths get to 50 a day or below, then that might be time to start opening up again. But with so many people not vaccinated, it will obviously spread, and still get people.
     
  4. Bosswhite

    Bosswhite

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    I am all for extending the lock down , we lifted the lock down twice last year and it was an omnishambles .
    It has cost a lot of lives, financial hardship business`s going to the wall , we have got to learn by our past mistakes with this virus
     
  5. ReganAndCarter

    ReganAndCarter

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    Yes, allowing for the fact that a proportion of the 454 deaths won't be directly caused by Covid. I only hope the economy can take the punishment until summer and maybe beyond.
     
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  6. ReganAndCarter

    ReganAndCarter

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    But we didn't have the vaccine then.
     
  7. jonbey

    jonbey

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    they'll send kids back to school, maybe after Easter break (I'd be surprised if sooner really, but who knows what they will announce on/before 8th March), and then monitor the situation, and if things look better and cases don't start rising in care homes, general elderly etc. then they'll probably ease up with opening pubs and restaurants, then monitor another couple of weeks.

    That would be the sensible approach, rather than just opening the flood gates and hoping the vaccine is working as well as hoped, and that those who have not had it are strong enough to deal with it.
     
  8. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    More important than that is - why is the plan for ending lock-down called a road map?

    Not to mention Van-Tam's rail trips; why does everything have to be a stupid metaphor?
     
  9. ^woody^

    ^woody^

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    They are but the numbers are still very high.

    And it's not really known about the variants and the vaccine, nor the transmissibility.

    There are still millions not vaccinated, and those are the ones who are more likely to spread the virus.
     
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  11. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    It's almost as if there is an ulterior motive and another agenda.
     
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  12. JohnD

    JohnD

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    if the vaccines are working, we ought to see the numbers of infections and deaths dropping, starting with the oldest.

    However the age pattern is not (yet?) showing that, so numbers may just be fogged by post-Christmas lockdown.

    Over 65's to 69's have just started to qualify, and will not to be as frail as the older and vulnerable people done earlier. Immunity is known to be at quite a good level after three weeks, and it can take two or three weeks after infection before some cases are seriously ill. So maybe a 6-week delay before results are seen in hospitals.
     
  13. JohnD

    JohnD

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    The vaccination numbers only got really big in late January, so the effects may not be really clear until after mid March, allowing for delay in getting figures aggregated and published.

    Screenshot_2021-02-19 Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard.png

    Hopefully the number of new infections should be coming down about now, as a result of vaccinations, even though we are not seeing the effects yet.
     
  14. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    No ???

    upload_2021-2-19_19-0-39.png

    Deaths similar but a few weeks behind of course.

    upload_2021-2-19_19-2-0.png

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
     
  15. Harry Bloomfield

    Harry Bloomfield

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    Seems straight forward and very logical to me - There is a considerable lag between new cases declining, hospitalised cases and then deaths declining. The government are rightfully playing it ultra cautious this time around, based on past experience when lockdowns have been ended before, then seeing a surge in cases.
     
  16. EFLImpudence

    EFLImpudence

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    You mean they don't know what they are doing - even though nearly every government is doing the same.
     
  17. Swwils

    Swwils

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    I think everyone will be surprised how quickly lockdown rules can be relaxed when they choose to do so.

    The the initial vaccine data from the UK and other countries is very positive, especially in terms of a reduction of transmission aswell as the reduction of serious disease.
     
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