There is a saving with a modulating boiler but it's just one of many little improvements in the thing that actually costs you money when operating, the boiler itself.
What is your view on whether a boiler actually operates more efficiently when the burner turns down? I don't mean because of increased condensing or less cycling but the actual act of burning gas and transferring heat. I've read several different takes on this. Most seem to say yes but that there is a point at which greater modulation stops being more efficient because of things like more excess air being needed to keep the flame stable. But at least one comment I read said the opposite and that it was less efficient when turned down. If it does operate more efficiently then what is the explanation? The main thing I've read trying to explain it was the quote below from Heat Geek, which seems sensible on the face of it, but is it correct?
When boilers components i.e. the heat exchanger and the combustion chamber, are designed, they are sized to effectively transfer the maximum amount of heat as efficiently as possible. Both of these components are more efficient, bigger.
A larger combustion chamber gives more room for the natural gas and oxygen to evenly mix and give a more complete combustion/flame efficiency. A larger heat exchanger gives more chance for the heat to transfer into the heating system water.
When boilers modulate down these components stay the same size, meaning they effectively become oversized. This increases the heat exchanger's relative surface area and 'heat transfer coefficient'. The larger combustion chamber gives lower NOX levels and fewer unburned gases.
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