do i draw my money out now

[ABCwarrior]

Oh, and back to the post title- I've never had any savings anyway, but with inflation the way it is if I did I'd buy stuff now rather than put it off. Plus, it's all just numbers in a computer anyway, turn it into something tangible before someone pulls the plug and the numbers disappear....

 

[joe-90]

As far as I'm aware the maximum oil taken out of the ground per day is 87 million barrels. If you can find a higher output please let me know when it was.
China has growth of 9% per year (compounding). India is industrialising. Demand is steadily increasing - but output isn't. Therefore demand is outstripping supply - 'Peak oil'. Why do you think that this isn't happening?

 

[Norcon]

Who makes this assertion?

http://www.oildecline.com/

"Peak oil is now." German Energy Watch Group –2008

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear..…" U.S. Department of Defense –2008 & 2010.

"A global peak is inevitable. The timing is uncertain, but the window is rapidly narrowing." UK Energy Research Centre -2009

"The next five years will see us face … the oil crunch." UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security –2009

The most optimistic date I've seen is 2020.

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/2011-01_EWG_Bulletin_4_E.pdf

http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-the-report/2010-peak-oil-report/

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Peak-Oil-–-Scaremongering-or-Soon-Reality.html

 

[JohnD]

Norcon, I started looking at your links and they seem to be obsessive pressure groups.

Do you have any links from a trustworthy source that says e.g. "Peak Oil was Reached in Year NNNN, when a total of NNNN billion barrels was pumped out of the ground. Since then NNNN-n was pumped in year NNNN, NNNN-n2 was pumped in year NNNN, and NNNN-n3 was pumped in year NNNN"

Those are the sort of quantified figures that can be examined and tested for accuracy.

(Looking at known facts will help us establish if, and when, "Peak Oil" occurred. Comparing different competing guesses of what might, or might not, happen in the future is not so valuable.)

 

[Norcon]

I wouldn't have thought the "quoted" groups were "obsessive pressure groups".

(ie - German Energy Watch Group –2008 , U.S. Department of Defense –2008 & 2010, UK Energy Research Centre -2009, UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security –2009)

Two of the links are from those "quoted" groups. The last one has an article by Ronald Stoeferle.

Why do you think they are obsessive pressure groups?

 

[enyam]

Hope you don't mind me having a say,although the report alluded in this link was done in 2005 it rather looks to me like it depends on whether your glass is half full or half empty.

Whether or not you sleep well at night could depend on which view you hold over peak oil. Those who hold an optimistic view don't necessarily believe that oil production follows the curve predicted by M. King Hubbert. Instead, they believe that around 2030 oil production will begin the "undulating plateau" envisioned by CERA and continue indefinitely as other energy sources take up the slack. Like climate skeptics, critics of the peak oil theory feel that our outlook isn't so bleak.
To peak oil adherents, however, the future is dire. In fact, it may already be too late. We may have already reached peak oil production and are in the few-year period before it becomes painfully clear it has taken place. Others see the peak taking place as soon as 2011. Even the most conservative peak oil adherents don't place the peak any further out than 2040.

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/peak-oil4.htm

 

[JohnD]

, U.S. Department of Defense –2008 & 2010, UK Energy Research Centre -2009, UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security –2009)

I have heard of the US department of defense. I have not heard of the others. Your links however were not to any of their websites.

"Energywatchgroup" "Peakoiltaskforce" and "oilprice" all seem to have their own agendas. I want to see the original source material, not quotes that might or might not be accurate and up to date, and have been cherry picked to support existing prejudices.

 

[Norcon]

Time will tell when ever it is and we can all have our own opinions.
I was filling up my van the other day and a long haul artic driver was filling up his truck.
£800 and it covers about two days driving. Crazy.
We run a small construction business employing three people and spend about £25k per year on fuel alone.

Those of you who are optimistic and believe the world is still an untapped oil resourse , can you tell me when our fuel bill will reduce?

An exact date would be good.
And I want to see the original source material, not quotes that might or might not be accurate and up to date, and have been cherry picked to support existing prejudices.

 

[Susiejb]

I assume that even if it has reached a peak ..... there is still a vast amount left considering how much we have actually used already and hopefully there are new inventions all the time that will not be so reliant on oil anyway.
I agree on the fuel Norcon, the cost is becoming extortionate even just to fill an ordinary car....no wonder the cost of food and other commodities has risen so much with all the extra transport costs.

 

[joe-90]

Oil isn't running out. It's just the ability of oil fields to maintain what is there. No new oil means no new growth - which means economic collapse.



http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6169

 

[Susiejb]

So the whole economy revolves around oil

 

[joe-90]

Yes.

 

[Susiejb]

ok or should I say ok

 

[joe-90]

Our civilisation is built on a never ending stream of almost free oil. When it's no longer cheap - the cost of everything rises - apart from our ability to earn. So we go into a depression that will last forever.

 

[Susiejb]

But won't they just adapt to a new way of doing things that doesn't put so much emphasis on oil ?