Did ya? Are you glad you did??

[motorbiking]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU.

from the above we can calculate 0.25% compounded

 

[JohnD]

A study reported in the FT estimates that Theresa's deal will cost UK citizens up to £1,100 per person per year, and no-deal up to £3,000 per person per year.

https://next-media-api.ft.com/renditions/15433231246110/1280x720.mp4

and says
"Official Brexit forecasts show Britain getting poorer"

"The BoE’s analysis contained the chilling warning that a no-deal Brexit could unleash a worse recession than the one during the financial crisis, but it was the downbeat official assessments of Mrs May’s deal that are likely to trouble her as she tries to persuade MPs to vote for it in the House of Commons on December 11.

Government economists produced a huge range of potential outcomes from the Brexit process, which resulted in a mild to severe hit to British living standards.

The outcome closest to Mrs May’s deal — involving some new trade frictions at borders and sharp restrictions on immigration — would leave Britain missing out on 3.9 per cent of gross domestic product that it would otherwise have had in 15 years time."

https://www.ft.com/content/136fc202-f330-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f

That looks like the same source. The calculation may be in there somewhere.

"Closer arrangements between the UK and the EU would limit the economic damage, according to the government analysis. But one government insider said more distant ties — such as a bare-bones customs arrangement between the two sides, potentially involving a so-called backstop to avoid a hard Irish border — could result in a hit to GDP of 5.3 per cent."



"No deal" being the worst possible outcome.

 

[Notch7]

could result in a hit to GDP of 5.3 per cent

Similar to a socialist government.

 

[JohnD]

please show us the sources for your allegation.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

However, next time I hear someone say "nobody voted to be poorer" I can some correct them and say "some anonymous nutter on the internet thinks that he did."

No - correct them and say that every single person who voted to leave voted to be poorer.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

please show us the sources for your allegation.

 

[ban-all-sheds]

Similar to a socialist government.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factc...arty-has-a-better-track-record-on-the-economy

 

[motorbiking]

I don't think you can compare new labour (as in Blair) to the one we have today. The statement was the cost of a Corybn Govt.. I didn't mind New labour too much, made a lot of money advising stupid government projects, ready to pee money up the wall. There is no doubt there was money sloshing around in the economy under new labour, but it was money the country couldn't afford to spend. There are some good articles on the cost of a Corbyn govt..
https://www.ft.com/content/fb397f44-e64b-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da

Generally its going to be those on 80-200k paying the most and of course the stock market will take a beating. Hitting pensions, ISAs etc. Not to mention making French and German state funded energy and rail firms super rich when he tried to buy them back. Assuming he wins his ticket on a ref 2 and that is remain, he won't have much room to renationalise assets unless he compensates the owners. I can see it being somewhat bigger than 1/4 of. 1% a year.

 

[Notch7]

https://www.channel4.com/news/factc...arty-has-a-better-track-record-on-the-economy

So a period that was new Labour.

Now let me think, what is Corbyn and momentum doing with the moderate left in his party; oh thats right he is sacking or deselecting them.

Corbynistas consider the new labour moderates red tories.

Plenty of Lefties on here spouting how proud they are that Corbyn has supposedly 'moved the centre ground left'

 

[Doppleganger]

I don't think you can compare new labour (as in Blair) to the one we have today.

So a period that was new Labour.

You can't refute an argument about how badly the Tory government has affected the economy compared to the Labour government, by suggesting your opinion on hypothetical scenarios holds sway.
Well, you can try, but it doesn't hold water.
The history presented in BAS's article is based on ....history.
Your argument is based on your opinion of Corbyn's policies (hardly likely to be benign) and your opinion of what might happen if a multiple of variables occur (again likely to be worst case scenario).

 

[ellal]

Similar to a socialist government.

Really?

Lets's have a look at historical GDP figures shall we...

So where are the dips?

Oh yeah, in the 80's - Tory.
In the 90's - Tory.
In the 2008 world banking crisis - 'New' Labour
In the 2010's (post brexit vote) - Tory.

Hardly a ringing endorsement of your 'claim' is it

 

[Notch7]

You can't refute an argument

I can certainly refute

BAS provided a graph, I responded.

The simple fact is the graph shows new Labour did well, in context of the period shown. (Its hard to make any valid comparison of financial crash period onwards, we dont know how Labour wouldve managed it).

And the next simple fact is that the socialist Corbyn lovers on here, discount New Labour as Red Tory and not real Labour. And that is current not history.

What is clear is that thise on the left cant use the new labour period as an indication of likely success in Corbyns party, because hes doing his best to drive out the moderates.

 

[Notch7]

Hardly a ringing endorsement of your 'claim' is

Your graph proves nothing, you are ignoring the point I made

point to the success period where a socialist government was in power.

If you want to use gdp as an indicator, you need to compare gdp with start and end of Tory governments, not dips in between.

 

[motorbiking]

And GDP trends of similar nations.

 

[JohnD]

Some more recent ones:

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