EU negotiations: will UK govt reach a deal or not

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

If Spain closes the border with Gibralter then the only loser will be Spanish workers who will lose their jobs.
Wasn't the border closed before and it had no effect whatsoever on the colony.

We can see what happens during the current restrictions, and what is possible:

https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-...e-being-stopped-entering-spain-and-gibraltar/​

 

[IT Minion]

Apparently there's two different approaches from Spain for Gibraltar. The first one is that whilst the treaty is still in force, we nicked a bit more land than agreed and they want the airport back.

The second one is: Treaties are only good as long as both parties still want it. Since the Spanish and Dutch aren't likely to renenge on their part of the treaty (they're not going to go back to war) there's not much for them to lose by dissolving that one.

 

[ellal]

"Boris Johnson has admitted the UK is currently heading for a no-deal Brexit, with an agreement now “very difficult”
(September 2020)

Boris Johnson: "There is no plan for no deal because we are going to get a great deal"
(July 2017)

Whatever happened to the 'easiest deal in history'?

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Whatever happened to the 'easiest deal in history'?

Perhaps, for once in his life, he saw the negotiations from the other's point of view.
It will be the easiest deal in history, for the EU. All they have to do is to sit back and wait.

If it's a No Deal, and therefore, not a lpf, then expect a low-level trade war. And trade wars do no-one any good.

 

[Notch7]

ow-level trade war. And trade wars do no-one any good

In a trade war, the smaller side loses.

 

[fillyboy]

In a trade war, the smaller side loses.

That's 25 EU countries stuffed then.

 

[JohnD]

That's 25 EU countries stuffed then.

The alliance of 27 nations is not a "small side."

 

[ReganAndCarter]

Dunno why they do nt join Himagin in France

Looks like they rejected him.

 

[Lower]

In a trade war, the smaller side loses.

In a trade war both sides lose until one side capitulates or both sides come to agreement.

Which both sides are aware of and is why they generally don't last that long.

 

[Notch7]

That's 25 EU countries stuffed then.

I am not sure if you realise, the EU act as one trade bloc in the negotiations.

brexit is falling apart, it must be ever so disappointing for you.

 

[Notch7]

In a trade war both sides lose until one side capitulates or both sides come to agreement.

Which both sides are aware of and is why they generally don't last that long.

No, the loss is not equal

the figures make it clear: UK would lose 46% of its exports, the EU would lose 8% of its exports

and dont forget, on the 1st Jan 2021, the UK will have lost all of its preferential trade deals and will suddenly be trading with every major economy under 4th division trade rules

and the UK will have the very significant cost of non tariff barriers between itself and its largest trade partner.

 

[Lower]

I am not sure if you realise, the EU act as one trade bloc in the negotiations.

That's a fallacy. Some countries have a lot more influence than others, which is why ultimately a deal will be done because we're not actually negotiating with the whole of the EU, irrespective of what Barnier says.

 

[Brigadier]

the figures make it clear: UK would lose 46% of its exports, the EU would lose 8% of its exports

Plenty of people could lose 46% of their bodyweight and actually be much better off for it.
Lose the 8% that is the head though ......

No, the loss is not equal

Couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[Notch7]

That's a fallacy. Some countries have a lot more influence than others, which is why ultimately a deal will be done because we're not actually negotiating with the whole of the EU, irrespective of what Barnier says.

we are negotiating with the EU

the EU is united: it will protect the Single Market.
I presume you are still using the German car industry trope.

If a deal is done it will be because Boris capitulates, like he did last time.

Think about it: Barnier wont allow a deal without fishing access because France will veto

Who do you think will put pressure on Barnier to agree dropping LPF and state aid?
-we already know the UK cant have access to the Single Market without agreeing to its rules

Johnson set a deadline so he stopped the option of doing a line by line tariff agreement....so the alternative is a LPF

 

[Lower]

we are negotiating with the EU

the EU is united: it will protect the Single Market.

Think about it: Barnier wont allow a deal without fishing access because France will veto

My point exactly. Some of the EU states have much more vested interests than others.