Is the May 17th reopening a mistake?

[ajohn]

We're on the mend now but it certainly hasn't been a nice experience and certainly a lot worse then our possible previous encounters with Covid.

Glad to hear you are ok.

 

[fillyboy]

They are confident due to testing etc but final proof is in the pudding. If you don't know what that means google it.

Is it like a dessert?

 

[IT Minion]

So what do they do - ease lockdown and see what happens and take what ever precautions they can. Extending lock down doesn't achieve anything and they can't go on forever. No other choice really.

It looks like the Indian variant is spreading even with the current level of lockdown. Which means by opening up we will accelerate it's spread. We know enough to know it is likely to cause serious trouble. The guidance from SAGE is:

The “earlier, harder, broader” principles of responding quickly, taking strong
measures, and doing so over a wider geography than where the issues have been
identified in response to outbreaks, remain relevant. Testing, tracing and, in
particular, isolating cases remains very important

Which is exactly what we're not doing. We're targeting small areas for slightly increased vaccination, which in turn sucks resources from everywhere else, and doing very little beyond that, and doing it late in the day.

As for there's no choice, of course there is.

"See what happens" is what got us into the first March lockdown and why the second wave at Christmas was so bad.

 

[ajohn]

Is it like a dessert?

Only to an arid mind like yours.

 

[ajohn]

It looks like the Indian variant is spreading even with the current level of lockdown. Which means by opening up we will accelerate it's spread. We know enough to know it is likely to cause serious trouble.

Not exactly. Different sectors of the population infection rates vary. Overall infections are pretty flat but granular as they are broken down in various ways. The usual variant is also at work despite lock down. They can only compare with that one.

Can't say I am happy about it but do see the point they are making. So they are doing what they intended to do if a variant crops up and also the limited vaccination changes. Problem with those is they take 3 weeks to do anything. All adults could be ok on that basis but only by the end of July.

There was a lot of talk about vaccination - bit of a problem. Direct it in some other ways as some have suggested and those that need it will fall behind. Their target on lockdown depends on vaccination.

Vaccination uptake is granular as well even just based on age. 50's think they are immortal or worry too much about it. They are in a problem age. People in their 30's are too if lots catch it. Death is only part of the problem - hospital beds are another one. Even the older groups aren't at 100% but suppose there could be all sorts of reasons for that. High 90's though which is far more like it should be at all ages. Some who haven't for any reason will cop out for it but the rest of us may as well.

 

[ReganAndCarter]

Is it like a dessert?

Yes, but pistachio kulfi in ths case.