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Is the May 17th reopening a mistake?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by IT Minion, 12 May 2021.

  1. ajohn

    ajohn

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    ;) That spike on the end of the graph I posted is covid by the way. Nice short one due to the time frame. The latest one would be higher.

    Much fuss on here as usual. Yesterdays brief was pretty clear from their point of view. Indian variant is an unknown that looks like it could be more infectuous but not enough data to know. If slightly more infectuous than Kent ( a terrible place ) no problem. Lot more infectuous and it may beat the vaccination age rate plan . This could cause overload problems. I suppose people don't think about that as it's assumed that only "older" people finish up in hospital. The other aspect is effectiveness of the vaccines- not just against the Indian variant, any of them. They are confident due to testing etc but final proof is in the pudding. If you don't know what that means google it. As they have said some will still die and some will still need attention in a hospital. How many?

    So what do they do - ease lockdown and see what happens and take what ever precautions they can. Extending lock down doesn't achieve anything and they can't go on forever. No other choice really. This is also why they ease in stages. The "problem" at the moment is that infection rates are low as lock down has worked - nice problem to have but it means it will take a while for them to get the info they need. One problem is that infections build in the young first and then move up the age range. It's always done that and not just because of misbehaviour. The Indian variant seems to be going that way. What it means in practice from their point of view is that anyone who suggests different is guessing - that's very likely to be correct.
     
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  3. ajohn

    ajohn

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    Glad to hear you are ok.
     
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  4. fillyboy

    fillyboy

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    Is it like a dessert?
     
  5. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    It looks like the Indian variant is spreading even with the current level of lockdown. Which means by opening up we will accelerate it's spread. We know enough to know it is likely to cause serious trouble. The guidance from SAGE is:

    Which is exactly what we're not doing. We're targeting small areas for slightly increased vaccination, which in turn sucks resources from everywhere else, and doing very little beyond that, and doing it late in the day.

    As for there's no choice, of course there is.

    "See what happens" is what got us into the first March lockdown and why the second wave at Christmas was so bad.
     
  6. ajohn

    ajohn

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    :ROFLMAO: Only to an arid mind like yours.
     
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  7. ajohn

    ajohn

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    Not exactly. Different sectors of the population infection rates vary. Overall infections are pretty flat but granular as they are broken down in various ways. The usual variant is also at work despite lock down. They can only compare with that one.

    Can't say I am happy about it but do see the point they are making. So they are doing what they intended to do if a variant crops up and also the limited vaccination changes. Problem with those is they take 3 weeks to do anything. All adults could be ok on that basis but only by the end of July.

    There was a lot of talk about vaccination - bit of a problem. Direct it in some other ways as some have suggested and those that need it will fall behind. Their target on lockdown depends on vaccination.

    :( Vaccination uptake is granular as well even just based on age. 50's think they are immortal or worry too much about it. They are in a problem age. People in their 30's are too if lots catch it. Death is only part of the problem - hospital beds are another one. Even the older groups aren't at 100% but suppose there could be all sorts of reasons for that. High 90's though which is far more like it should be at all ages. Some who haven't for any reason will cop out for it but the rest of us may as well.
     
  8. ReganAndCarter

    ReganAndCarter

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    Yes, but pistachio kulfi in ths case.
     
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