One for the epidemiologists on the forum.

[EFLImpudence]

The last week:

Tests:....... 6,433,834
Cases:......... 320,594 ~5% of tests; how many are ill?
Hospitalised:.... 6,074 ~2% of cases; 0.1% of tests
Deaths:.............. 954 ~16% of hospitalised; 0.3% of cases; 0.015% of tests

Only 1 in 8 of the population has ever tested positive since covid began.

'Only' ~8,000 in hospital (+11% on previous week) so obviously more have been released because 16% have sadly died.


There have lately been around a million tests per day with the 5% positive cases.

Are these a random million people tested every day where we may deduce that 5% of the total population is infected (3.5 million), or
are they susceptible people - health workers, contacts of the ill etc. - where we may deduce that much less than 5% of the total population is infected?

If there were no testing (apart from the sick) would people be happier merely being told that 8,000 are in hospital and 954 have died - out of the 12,000 who die every week?

 

[denso13]

The last week:

Tests:....... 6,433,834
Cases:......... 320,594 ~5% of tests; how many are ill?
Hospitalised:.... 6,074 ~2% of cases; 0.1% of tests
Deaths:.............. 954 ~16% of hospitalised; 0.3% of cases; 0.015% of tests

Only 1 in 8 of the population has ever tested positive since covid began.

'Only' ~8,000 in hospital (+11% on previous week) so obviously more have been released because 16% have sadly died.


There have lately been around a million tests per day with the 5% positive cases.

Ok.

Are these a random million people tested every day where we may deduce that 5% of the total population is infected (3.5 million), or
are they susceptible people - health workers, contacts of the ill etc. - where we may deduce that much less than 5% of the total population is infected?

Second option i'd have thought..

If there were no testing (apart from the sick) would people be happier merely being told that 8,000 are in hospital and 954 have died - out of the 12,000 who die every week?

Personally, no.

 

[IT Minion]

IT Minions wonderfully explained knowledgeable answer:



So - which would be the most effective way of reducing the number of new cases?

Wear masks, social distance or reduce testing?

Answers here:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ummary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf

Well, a summary, that version doesn't have the appendix. But I'm sure you can find it if you actually care, which we know you don't.

 

[IT Minion]

The last week:

Tests:....... 6,433,834
Cases:......... 320,594 ~5% of tests; how many are ill?
Hospitalised:.... 6,074 ~2% of cases; 0.1% of tests
Deaths:.............. 954 ~16% of hospitalised; 0.3% of cases; 0.015% of tests

Only 1 in 8 of the population has ever tested positive since covid began.

'Only' ~8,000 in hospital (+11% on previous week) so obviously more have been released because 16% have sadly died.


There have lately been around a million tests per day with the 5% positive cases.

Are these a random million people tested every day where we may deduce that 5% of the total population is infected (3.5 million), or
are they susceptible people - health workers, contacts of the ill etc. - where we may deduce that much less than 5% of the total population is infected?

If there were no testing (apart from the sick) would people be happier merely being told that 8,000 are in hospital and 954 have died - out of the 12,000 who die every week?

You're being sloppy with numbers again. Typically people die around three weeks after they're detectable on a PCR. Comparing death rates this week to tests this week is inaccurate.

When you say 1in 8 have tested positive, do you include people who've had it multiple times as one person or not? I'm guessing you're using number of tests, not people. There are better estimates of the actual number of infections if you look for them.

Most people with Covid in hospital survive, thanks to the vaccines and various treatments. The survival rate is significantly better now than it used to be.

You'd do much better with the ONS weekly survey, it is aimed more at population level effects and the data is clearer. But you've never really understood any of this and that's never going to change.

 

[EFLImpudence]

You're being sloppy with numbers again. Typically people die around three weeks after they're detectable on a PCR. Comparing death rates this week to tests this week is inaccurate.

Except the test numbers have been more or less constant for longer than that.

When you say 1in 8 have tested positive, do you include people who've had it multiple times as one person or not? I'm guessing you're using number of tests, not people. There are better estimates of the actual number of infections if you look for them.

Just tell us then.

8.6 million positive tests since the beginning is 1 in 8 of the population.
If you are saying that many tests are repeats, then the figure is even better - ok - but the details do not show that.
So what is the true figure? 1 in 16 or 1 in 100? Whatever it is; it is therefore less worrying.

Most people with Covid in hospital survive,

As they always did.

thanks to the vaccines and various treatments. The survival rate is significantly better now than it used to be.

We know that.

You'd do much better with the ONS weekly survey, it is aimed more at population level effects and the data is clearer. But you've never really understood any of this and that's never going to change.

I have used the ONS data to which you directed me the last time you told me off.

I do not accept that masks - the way the public use them - are effective. Do they prevent aerosols passing through either way? If yes, do they then disappear when they are stuffed in pocket ready for the next time.
The rules for social distancing have been shown to be ineffective by the extra subsequently added variations and changes.



You really are a snide miserable bugger who seems to hate people asking questions.

I cannot imagine a medical expert would have chosen IT Minion as a user name so I will continue to treat your posts as worth very little - unless, of course, you ever actually answer a question satisfactorily.


SO - Why is the UK apparently doing so much worse than comparable countries? Is it just wrong numbers?

 

[IT Minion]

Except the test numbers have been more or less constant for longer than that.

Three weeks ago the 7 day average was 34,000. Now it's 44,000. Idiot.

8.6 million positive tests since the beginning is 1 in 8 of the population.
If you are saying that many tests are repeats, then the figure is even better - ok - but the details do not show that.
So what is the true figure? 1 in 16 or 1 in 100? Whatever it is; it is therefore less worrying.

The ONS population survey tells you roughly what % is infected at any time. It is a reliable way to estimate how much of the population is infected at any time. The testing process however is not meant to get that data.

As they always did.

At one point it was around 25% mortality for people admitted to hospital with Covid.

I do not accept that masks - the way the public use them - are effective. Do they prevent aerosols passing through either way? If yes, do they then disappear when they are stuffed in pocket ready for the next time.
The rules for social distancing have been shown to be ineffective by the extra subsequently added variations and changes.

Thankfully reality doesn't require your acceptance.

You really are a snide miserable bugger who seems to hate people asking questions.

I do dislike your deliberate attempt to fail to learn. You just don't take the time to think about what you're doing. It's annoying because you don't seem to be congenitally thick, just thick by choice.

I cannot imagine a medical expert would have chosen IT Minion as a user name so I will continue to treat your posts as worth very little - unless, of course, you ever actually answer a question satisfactorily.


SO - Why is the UK apparently doing so much worse than comparable countries? Is it just wrong numbers?

Which countries do you consider comparable? And what metrics do you use to identify them and what metrics do you want to compare?

 

[denso13]

SO - Why is the UK apparently doing so much worse than comparable countries? Is it just wrong numbers?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/the-uks-covid-infection-rate-is-rising-heres-why.html

 

[EFLImpudence]

Three weeks ago the 7 day average was 34,000. Now it's 44,000. Idiot.

But it was still a million tests per day.
I even used the latest 50,000 cases as the daily figure for the 5%.

The ONS population survey tells you roughly what % is infected at any time. It is a reliable way to estimate how much of the population is infected at any time. The testing process however is not meant to get that data.

Then how do they know?

At one point it was around 25% mortality for people admitted to hospital with Covid.

So - most people always did survived then.

Thankfully reality doesn't require your acceptance.

No answer, as usual.

I do dislike your deliberate attempt to fail to learn. You just don't take the time to think about what you're doing. It's annoying because you don't seem to be congenitally thick, just thick by choice.

What about not trusting the teachers?

Which countries do you consider comparable? And what metrics do you use to identify them and what metrics do you want to compare?

Ones which are comparable to what the UK is doing at the moment. Is it too difficult to work out?
The ones who are carrying out the same or more tests???

 

[IT Minion]

Then how do they know?

How does the ONS population study work? As I said, you deliberately choose not to learn. I've posted those links for you half a dozen times and they all include methodology. I'm not wasting time reposting it for you to ignore yet again.

Ones which are comparable to what the UK is doing at the moment. Is it too difficult to work out?
The ones who are carrying out the same or more tests???

What sort of tests, do those other countries include lateral flow tests? I don't know and I'm sure you don't.

Which of those countries have similar levels of vaccination or NPI in place? I don't know and I'm sure you don't.

The ones I do have some knowledge of, our European neighbors, have lower case rates and more stringent NPIs in place, especially mask wearing. But you don't accept masks work so of course that's irrelevant in your imaginary world, so they must be lying, or we must, or you'll blame Bill Gates.

I can't give you an answer you'll accept because you've decided what it is but won't tell us.

 

[EFLImpudence]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/19/the-uks-covid-infection-rate-is-rising-heres-why.html

I read that last time you posted it and didn't think it entirely accurate and written by a reporter with no apparent medical qualifications.

One example: It says the cases have been soaring for months; this is not so and they are still much much lower than forecast by the usual people (including IT Minion) when Johnson removed the restrictions in July.

 

[EFLImpudence]

I don't know and I'm sure you don't. I don't know and I'm sure you don't.

Of course I don't; that is why I ask and apparently why you should not bother to answer.

 

[denso13]

I read that last time you posted it and didn't think it entirely accurate and written by a reporter with no apparent medical qualifications.

One example: It says the cases have been soaring for months; this is not so

This bit?

“The U.K. seems to be slowly waking up to the fact that Covid cases are too high, but the reality is they’ve been soaring for months and many countries have put us on their red list,” Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, which collects and analyses Covid data, noted last week.

 

[JP_]

professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app

Anti-vaxxer - "no apparent medical qualifications."

You can't make it up, can you?

 

[Justin Passing]

I think people alter their behaviour when they're having to wear masks. If so even if the masks aren't as effective as we'd like, they'd still "work" that way.

Kids in schools in Europe are still wearing masks I think, and they don't send one kid home, they send the class home, if one gets it.

Our case results are coming out suprisingly high though.


I stopped bothering with a mask, but I think it's time to get them out again.

 

[denso13]

One example: It says the cases have been soaring for months; this is not so