Ukraine, Light At the End Of The Tunnel, THE END GAME

[albaPhenom]

As and aside. Saudi not happy with the USA. Seems they have taken a Yemen group off the terrorist list and being slow sending them more missile defence stuff. Then comes an attack on an oil facility and other places via a drone attack according to reports. I had heard that the entire Arab area is a bit cheesed off with the USA. Not Qatar though. Strange place as far as the population is concerned.

Better description of Phase 1 from Russia. End of the winter aspect. Mud comes next so little or no advances just more of what they have been doing lately and cleaning up in areas they control. Come May the mud is over and things continue. They were asked why announce what they are going to do, no clear answer. I'd suspect it's to help with negotiations. They expect Ukraine to field a lot of quickly trained soldiers. Mud gives then time to do that. Pass but given time to prepare those may find they have Russia's problem - having to attack well defended positions to achieve anything. A siege in other words. The USA seems to figure strongly in the needed negotiations.I doubt if either side can back down.

Biden is beginning to sound like an old hawk and wants to bring China into the conversation. This sounds like the beginning of another Russia type problem to me. A large resource rich country. Analysts have reckoned that they will top the USA eventually. Actually in some ways they may have already. They just appear to not get so much involved in world affairs than they did in their early Red Army type days.

The Chinese are playing a longer strategy, if and when they become the dominant world power then their playbook will change to suit and become far more confrontational. Do you honestly believe that 20 years down the line after laying massive infrastructure in an African nation in order to withdraw all of their natural resources, that if that nation started to oppose this robbery of their resources that the Chinese won't "act in their nations best interest" in regards to those Africans.

The people who complain about todays US foreign policy, often justifiably, seem to be completely unaware just how little other countries care about human rights, the sanctity of the individual or other countries feelings. They're in for a rude awakening.

Saudi is reacting to the playing field as it's developing and hedging their bets in regards to China. The Wests complicity in Yemen is despicable but the simple truth is that our own economic safeguarding and reliance on oil trumps Yemeni peoples safety and security.

All this talk of Russia's Phase 1 is nonsense in my opinion, Putin's trying to paint a pretty picture of the Ukraine War in preparation for upcoming Victory Day Celebrations... it's an unmitigated disaster for him and he's probably looking to get away with securing the Donbas and finally having Crimea recognised as Russian territory. He wanted to overthrow the Ukrainian government and control the entire country, that looks impossible at this stage.

 

[The Samaritan]

Looks like Putin and co is reminding all re their nuke alert levels.

 

[JohnD]

All this talk of Russia's Phase 1 is nonsense in my opinion, Putin's trying to paint a pretty picture of the Ukraine War in preparation for upcoming Victory Day Celebrations... it's an unmitigated disaster for him and he's probably looking to get away with securing the Donbas and finally having Crimea recognised as Russian territory. He wanted to overthrow the Ukrainian government and control the entire country, that looks impossible at this stage.

I wonder what will happen when 150,000 surviving Russian soldiers come home and don't all keep their mouths shut.

At the moment, nobody knows how many won't be coming back.

 

[ajohn]

Qatar's answer to Zalensky's speech went loosely along the lines of the brown faces in the same situation as Ukraine. They could have mentioned other illegal wars. Zaelensky's speeches are slanted to suit the country he gives them to. Maybe this is one like Israel which may not go down well.

Afraid I smile about some of the comments on the state of the war. It's a problem. We hear from pundits and all have a drum to beat and they will. What will happen will. End of really. Russia playing the mud card. In real terms it wont prevent them from carrying on with what they have been doing in several areas for some time. Also beef up control in some areas. Just as they have said. That can be either true or an excuse or a mix. Take your pick. Time will tell.

Russia has also said they are trying to limit civilian casualties, so called collateral damage. Babies are born, kids get killed and civilians as well in all wars. You can read about thought processes during another war
https://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/usa1203/4.htm
Try searching Amiriyah shelter for a specific incident. Given total deaths there must have been loads of them.
Siege and limiting civilian deaths does seem to figure in Ukraine. It wont be the quickest way.

 

[Justin Passing]

From what I've read, Russia can't be free with its tanks etc because the Ukr have defence weapons for those. So Russia is dug in, using drones to spot targets, then calling air or missile or artillery strikes. Air is 50,000 ft which is too high for defence missiles.
300 air sorties a day one article said - far higher than widely reported but does account for the damage to buildings.

Many of Russia's troops are dragged-in conscripts or from far flung regions where people join the army because it's a career, rather than for patriotic fervour. "30% of dead Russians have moslem names", said one.
Down in the Donbas the Russians have best troops and their full range of weapons.
Sounds like things will depend very much on what US weapons can be smuggled in without being smashed in the storage depots by Russian missiles. E.G. Stingers they have now are not adjusted to work against drones, types they could get from the US.
Donbas did have about 25% pro Russian population which though not as high as in Crimea, which will make things harder for Zelesny.

It would be interesting to be a fly on many walls right now.
Places like Odessa will show whether Putin was lying.

 

[albaPhenom]

Qatar's answer to Zalensky's speech went loosely along the lines of the brown faces in the same situation as Ukraine. They could have mentioned other illegal wars. Zaelensky's speeches are slanted to suit the country he gives them to. Maybe this is one like Israel which may not go down well.

Afraid I smile about some of the comments on the state of the war. It's a problem. We hear from pundits and all have a drum to beat and they will. What will happen will. End of really. Russia playing the mud card. In real terms it wont prevent them from carrying on with what they have been doing in several areas for some time. Also beef up control in some areas. Just as they have said. That can be either true or an excuse or a mix. Take your pick. Time will tell.

Russia has also said they are trying to limit civilian casualties, so called collateral damage. Babies are born, kids get killed and civilians as well in all wars. You can read about thought processes during another war
https://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/usa1203/4.htm
Try searching Amiriyah shelter for a specific incident. Given total deaths there must have been loads of them.
Siege and limiting civilian deaths does seem to figure in Ukraine. It wont be the quickest way.

No offense intended but I can barely understand your posts.

I can't tell if you're trying to be supportive of the Russian war effort or not or whether you're trying to make the claim that things are actually going well for Russia.

What I do know is the insinuation that Russia is trying to limit civilian casualties is absolutely farcical when they've destroyed 90% of buildings including residential buildings in Mariupol, when they've opened humanitarian corridors and then immediately targeted them, when they've targeted buildings they know for a fact are acting as civilian bomb shelters.

Where do you stand on this, are you suggesting the Russian campaign is going well and they're trying to treat Ukraine with kid gloves?

 

[fillyboy]

No offense intended but I can barely understand your posts.

I think what John is saying is:

 

[albaPhenom]

I think what John is saying is:

Well I'm glad it isn't just me, I thought I was going daft.

 

[ajohn]

Places like Odessa will show whether Putin was lying

So far they are shelling outskirts from ships. If they carry on any further is that being misleading or lying. They have been asked why they are outlining heir war plan,. Maybe they should include the troop movements they intend to use.

 

[ajohn]

I can't tell if you're trying to be supportive of the Russian war effort or not

Of course I am not. As to the rest learn to use your brain. Why do you think Mariupol has been hit harder than others? Why not hit all in the same way? Why create blast damage rather than taking out an entire building? One mishap just did do that pretty thoroughly. It went in through and entrance and wrecked the entire block. Why choose to attack at certain time of the day. The link I posted explains that.

This doesn't mean I like what is going on. I don't. It's happening and there is zero I can do about that. I also realise that all sides have their own slant on the situation.

 

[JohnD]

Perhaps ajohn is suggesting that the results of the invasion are nobody's fault, these things just naturally happen when you have a war.

Omitting the fact that Russia (Putin) chose to start a war by attacking and invading a neighbouring country.

 

[transam]

Britain presses allies to supply tanks and planes to the Ukraine

Johnson wants Nato members to send tanks and possibly jets
to the Ukraine ???

???????

 

[albaPhenom]

Of course I am not. As to the rest learn to use your brain. Why do you think Mariupol has been hit harder than others? Why not hit all in the same way? Why create blast damage rather than taking out an entire building? One mishap just did do that pretty thoroughly. It went in through and entrance and wrecked the entire block. Why choose to attack at certain time of the day. The link I posted explains that.

This doesn't mean I like what is going on. I don't. It's happening and there is zero I can do about that. I also realise that all sides have their own slant on the situation.

Why don't you tell us in a clear and concise way instead of trying to leave us cryptic clues then?

I'm still struggling to make sense of whatever you're trying to get across here, that's genuinely not me tying to be insulting, I just really struggled to get a grip of your points and sorry but Again, you seem to be hinting at excuses for Russian actions.

"It went in through and entrance and wrecked the entire block." (sic)

What went through and what wrecked what entire building?

What time of day are you referring to and why do you think that matters?

Saying both sides have their own slant on the situation is like saying both Fred West and the Police both had different slants on the situation.

 

[JohnD]

Why do you think Mariupol has been hit harder than others?

Because the Russian army has not been able to defeat Ukrainian forces and take possession of the city, so they aim to destroy the city and starve the inhabitants until the survivors can no longer resist.

I'm glad I was able to answer your question.

No need to thank me.

 

[transam]

Satellite images reveal a Russian controlled camp in
Bezimenne between the besieged city of MarIupol and the Russian border

people can be seen waiting in a long queue

the camp is for ukranians

similar Russian camps were put up during the Chechen caper were 200000 were detained there was wide spread beatings , torture and rape ??