Part of Sunak's problem is inflation linked debt interest on some of the debt. He needs to cover it. The other one is that the self employed tax returns this year were low. Inflation is usually like a ratchet. Prices increase but don't fall but the rate falls eventually when things steady, That will reduce the payments at some point.
They expect that to happen next year. It seems we have more inflation to come - increasing. It's currently about 9.4% expected to get to 11. Rates are higher on basics. Who ever gets his job will have the same problems.
It seems there is a bit of a surplus. £Billions and more forecast £Billions eventually. These sound like a lot of money but as total expenditure is more like £1 trillion % wise they are not a lot at all. A trillion is 1,000 billions.
That fact will make the sums easier to do. The general news wont be telling you this. C4 had a bit of a go. BBC might too.
So Truss says she will ignore the Treasury. Pay debt of more slowly. Ok the interest payments are £Billion but still a pretty low %. She did say something will have to be done about those below poverty lines. Doesn't sound like she can really do all of what she is saying. Do they ever care about that? Some significant time down the line she may be able to do more. Sunak has always intended to do more eventually.
Sunak. Rebate on council tax - done and dusted this year. TBH I think this method was a pleaser and should really have been income targeted but that's politics and probably trickier to do. Sunak has been honest a couple of times - heating costs for instance - outside his scope of control. All he can do is help. That needs tax. He may also have needed the NI increase for the NHS to reduce the amount taken from general taxation which usually covers the majority of the cost. On the other hand the NI take may not be covering what it usually does any more.
It seems that the average age of a Tory party member is on the old side of things so both applicants are using different Thatcher mantras. Book balancing one and low taxes the other. They blame Labour for the banking crisis. It messed the books up. Covid messed the books up too, clearly a Tory problem. There is more political bullshit in this area of politics than any other.
Transport fuel. Another mess up. The Arabs have pointed out that ok they can ship more crude but what about refining it? Where it can be refined depends on grade. USA has greening related taxes etc so more refining not seen as viable. China accused of using it as a weapon as they don't export much. Typical USA comment. India is keeping theirs' for themselves. Russia currently turned off. Curiously oil analysts see this turn off as temporary. I assume ??? this is when Russia is on it's knees and Biden's next phase embargo can be implemented. They can sell oil but only at a price the west decides. He thinks this will also bring oil prices down. The Arabs will love that or will they. Russia is also a member of OPEC+. These have forced prices up in the past. Only route to Russia selling again that I can think of other than what they are currently doing but talk of withholding insurance. This would increase shortages.
