IMF predicting UK the worse performing economy according to the news..

[motorbiking]

..But that isn't actually what the data says...

Inflation Peaking amid Low Growth

The World Economic Outlook Update will be released in Singapore at 9:30 am on January 31, 2023 (January 30 at 8:30 pm Washington D.C. time)

www.imf.org

 

[Seafarer1966]

Note the use of the word 'subpar' in the article. Rather like back in 2008 when they were on about 'subprime' mortgages. Leonardo DeCaprio's lead character in the excellent film The Wolf of Wall Street hit the nail on the head when he said people come up with these fancy words that actually mean 'sh1t'. So it's not subpar economic growth or subprime mortgages it's sh1t economic growth and sh1t mortgages.

 

[diy_fun_uk]

I wonder if we'll see interest rates start to drop again ... I'm hoping so!

 

[motorbiking]

Their forecast for 2022 was wrong as late as Q3 2022. So I don't hold much faith in it being accurate.

However, what the data suggests is that we have a bit of blip up in 2022 above expectations and definitely an outlier against our neighbours, which wont continue in to 2023. The media are saying we are doomed. Its best to look at a 3 or 5 year rolling average.

 

[ajohn]

But that isn't actually what the data says...

Forecasts just as the IMF's latest is. Your link refers to their previous UK one. Now refined for various reasons including gov actions but seen to be on the right tracks with some growth expected in 24 but not much.

 

[motorbiking]

I think its the latest January 2023 release.

 

[Dork Lard]

I wonder if we'll see interest rates start to drop again ... I'm hoping so!

Why? Are you financially exposed to an increase in interest rates?

. . . or are you just moaning 'cos your mortgage is £20 more than last month?

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Why? Are you financially exposed to an increase in interest rates?

. . . or are you just moaning 'cos your mortgage is £20 more than last month?

Are there no reasons for preferring a lower interest rate? Especially with inflation stretching, if not running, away.

 

[motorbiking]

We've had low interest rates for the last 15 years (ish). People, who save money are worse off as a result. You could argue, that they are subsidising other people's spending.

 

[ellal]

Those who are dismissing this report (and several others) seem to have a filter that blocks out the elephant in the room

 

[ajohn]

I think its the latest January 2023 release.

Pass - they had an IMF man on who mentioned the numbers.

 

[gant]

No coincidence this report has come out when today's the day we 'left' the eu.
Always party poopers the IMF and what a tangled web the IMF weave.

 

[fillyboy]

I assume we still have the 2nd lowest debt to gdp ratio in the g7

 

[blup]

We're supposed to conclude that the IMF must comprise bitter EU politicians, biased civil servants with an axe to grind and biased economists whose aim is biased anti brexhit economic data.

On low borrowing rates, its a disgrace, we need to reduce reliance on personal credit, and return to an emphasis on prudent saving. The savers are subsidising bankers profits.

Blup

 

[ajohn]

The gov' answer is typical. We have shown more growth etc. Trouble is that we sunk further than others and did not recover to pre pandemic levels.
Another aspect is that the BofE noticed that bank balances drifted up during the main covid period. No comment about has that been spent.