Indeed - and my point, of course, would that (as the 'probing' might end up concluding) that is actually no less probable a set of numbers than any other set."South Africa's lottery probed as 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 drawn"
Yes the Copper Belt, used to advertise for tradesmen in the UK papers in the 70s, I knew a couple of sparks who went, had a great time by all accounts, during UDI sanction busting became a national obsession & forced the growth of lots of home grown industriesIt wasnt.
Zambia was bigger, but never got to much more than about 10% I think, and they found ways to continue to get a large amount of their production shipped through Rhodesia.
That there was no significant price increase probably says it all.
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I don't really understand the first part of the question but, as far as the bit I've highlighted in concerned, once the first draw of the week has selected a certain set of six numbers, the probability of the second draw of the week also producing the same set of numbers is the same as was the probability of the first set of numbers being what it was - i.e. around 1 in 45 million for a "6 out of 59" lottery.If one used the same method to choose one's ticket numbers, as the lottery uses to pick the winning numbers, i.e. to select six balls from the same machine, what are the odds of the lottery selecting the same six balls twice in the same week?
What I meant was, if they let you use the machine to pick your numbers and then for those numbers to be chosen in the next draw.I don't really understand the first part of the question but, as far as the bit I've highlighted in concerned, once the first draw of the week has selected a certain set of six numbers, the probability of the second draw of the week also producing the same set of numbers is the same as was the probability of the first set of numbers being what it was - i.e. around 1 in 45 million for a "6 out of 59" lottery.
More generally, the probability of that particular set of numbers coming up in any draw is the same.
What is the difference between this and above?However, if you picked a set of six numbers, then the chances of 'the machine' picking those numbers in two particular draws (whether in the same week or not) would be "(around 1 in 45 million) squared" which is such a ridiculously small probability as to not really be worth calculating (around "1 in 10^15", I think).
That doesn't alter my answer. No matter how you chose the numbers (and that includes using the numbers last chosen by the machine), the probability of the next draw (or any other draw) producing that same particular set of numbers is around 1 in 45 million.What I meant was, if they let you use the machine to pick your numbers and then for those numbers to be chosen in the next draw.
In the first case, you have chosen a set of numbers (which happens to be the set most recently chosen by the machine) and are asking about the probability of the next draw producing that same set of numbers - hence 1 in ~45m.However, you have confused me with this: .... What is the difference between this and above?
as to not really be worth calculating
Yep, but I don't think I did too badly to only be out by a factor of about 2 with my very hasty mental arithmetic which resulted in my "around 1 in 10^15"It's simple enough of an equation John! (yes, I am just killing time!!!)
(59!/53!/6!)^2 = 2030175963260676 ≈ 2 quadrillion!
People sometimes find it very hard to understand the difference between (assuming its not a dodgy dice) "if I roll a dice 6 times what are the odds of 6 sixes?" and "Ive rolled a dice 5 times and got 5 sixes, what are the odds of getting a six next time?".I should perhaps have added that what you were talking about was exactly the same as my "1,2,3,4,5,6" method of trying to get people to 'understand' - i.e. if you chose the numbers the machine had picked for the Wednesday draw to use for the Saturday draw that week, you would be no less (or no more!!) likely to win than if you had chosen the numbers in any other way.
Kind Regards, John
Indeed so.People sometimes find it very hard to understand the difference between (assuming its not a dodgy dice) "if I roll a dice 6 times what are the odds of 6 sixes?" and "Ive rolled a dice 5 times and got 5 sixes, what are the odds of getting a six next time?".
I'm sure you're right - they would be the same people who tell me that to choose (1,2,3,4,5,6) would also be "barking mad"!Be interesting to do a survey of reactions to: "I buy a random lucky dip lottery ticket each week" AND "Every week I pick the numbers that came up the week before".
Guarantee there would be far more "thats barking mad" reactions to strategy 2.
True, but we are obviously talking about the opposite here, since it's when they see 'patterns' in lottery numbers, like (1,2,3,4,5,6) or (2,4,6,8,10,12) etc., that they think they are looking at sets of numbers which "couldn't possibly win" - whereas, in most situations, they are (as you imply) 'attracted to/by' structured patterns..The human brain is not very good at understanding random numbers. Like pigeons*, we search for patterns and explanations even when there is none. Hence religion.
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