An EU FTA is not deliverable

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There is much talk of the EU 'blinking' and wanting to do a 'deal'


The theory
A potential future UK-EU Free Trade Agreement of the sort favoured by Brexiteers has been little considered, and indeed it is widely assumed in the UK that if the Ireland border issue is solved, a Canada-style deal is the answer.

The UK will thereby continue to enjoy the benefits of preferential free trade with the EU, particularly in goods, but equally be free also to make our own trade deals, including with the US.

The Reality
Well, what are you prepared to concede in a Free Trade Agreement?

the EU consider that preferential access to their market, including elimination of most or all tariffs, is so valuable (total GDP c$15tn) that they can set the conditions.

In truth there is no perfect UK-EU deal, the EU will demand concessions in return for preferential access, and our failure to be honest about this fact is leading us uncomfortably close to a long term rupture.

Brexiteers can choose between preferential access with integration, or isolation

Isolation means no deal -which is doomed to failure

extract of article by David Henig: expert on development of trade policy post Brexit
(ie somebody that knows what he is talking about and therefore hated by Brexiteers)
https://ecipe.org/blog/isolation-or-integration-eu-fta-brexit/
 
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I did chuckle at this bit:

"In my discussions with hardline no-deal Brexiteers on social media"
 
There is much talk of the EU 'blinking' and wanting to do a 'deal'


The theory
A potential future UK-EU Free Trade Agreement of the sort favoured by Brexiteers has been little considered, and indeed it is widely assumed in the UK that if the Ireland border issue is solved, a Canada-style deal is the answer.

The UK will thereby continue to enjoy the benefits of preferential free trade with the EU, particularly in goods, but equally be free also to make our own trade deals, including with the US.

The Reality
Well, what are you prepared to concede in a Free Trade Agreement?

the EU consider that preferential access to their market, including elimination of most or all tariffs, is so valuable (total GDP c$15tn) that they can set the conditions.

In truth there is no perfect UK-EU deal, the EU will demand concessions in return for preferential access, and our failure to be honest about this fact is leading us uncomfortably close to a long term rupture.

Brexiteers can choose between preferential access with integration, or isolation

Isolation means no deal -which is doomed to failure

extract of article by David Henig: expert on development of trade policy post Brexit
(ie somebody that knows what he is talking about and therefore hated by Brexiteers)
https://ecipe.org/blog/isolation-or-integration-eu-fta-brexit/

Says who?
 
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Insolation, anything can happen still at this point it is all still conjecture, it seems on the surface the leaders are sitting back somewhat bemused letting Bojo come up with an alternative... we shall see.
 
Can someone please get on to Boris's advisors and ask them if they can talk to Notchy Asap? It’s obvious that Notchy is far more knowledgeable on the subjects than these co-called 'experts'. :rolleyes:
 
Those are the options: integration or isolation.

Which one is your choice?

Who says there a just 2 choices? I can only assume that is what you have been told?

Just as why are there only 3 choices for leaving the EU? The Canadian model, the Swiss model, or the Norway model? Says who?
 
What about the German model?

What about any model you care to mention.. As I've always said, whilst leaving certainly seems a daft option, I'd have just told the EU exactly what the terms were and let them stew over it.
 
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