Big Numbers today

[ajohn]

The govt and media has been criticised for emphasising deaths and not emphasising the vast majority of recoveries...Now they do the opposite and still criticised...Classic example of they cannot win with some

Their plan makes sense but there are some severe failing in how it has been applied. Very severe ones. Considering that they have spent time deciding what to do in these sort of circumstances preparation in some areas was nothing short of disgusting especially considering one of the main points made is that what ever it is will get here and nothing can be done to prevent it spreading. They gave up in the spreading area rather quickly. Their initial testing capabilities may have been high enough if they had taken the correct steps. Boris advocating hand shaking wasn't a correct step.

Then is it "their plan". No. It uses nothing other than standard techniques. The only relatively new idea is mobile phone tracking. Tracking isn't new at all.

Having watched 2 episodes of Spooks last night I exited iplayer to bbc 2. There was a semi cynical commentator talking about things. Only saw a bit but did hear the health minister say this thing isn't serious and also Boris saying he was shaking hands with everyone even cv19 patients. Many weeks ago and people are inclined to forget about things like this.

It's intriguing that they managed to control it to just the extent that the NHS could cope but I really do wonder how well, how speedily and if this has something to do with death rates especially in England. Shortages of general ICU equipment has been mentioned several times. A nightingale isn't an ICU.

One of the main controls on achieving that will have been telling 70+ to isolate. Interesting that it wasn't 65+. Numbers are such that they could easily overwhelm the NHS all on there own as more likely to finish up in hospital. Death rates at any age are much much higher if people can't be treated. That's what save the nhs was all about.

70+ only get mentioned rather briefly now. They have to rely on probability of becoming infected as the number of people carrying the virus in the general population goes down.

In short they have really screwed up in terms of finishing it as soon as possible. Finishing it doesn't mean no one ever catches it again only keeping infections down to extremely low levels - minor rather small outbreaks as some others have done. They aren't the only ones that could have done better but many probably had similar ideas at the very start.

 

[ajohn]

Convalescent Plasma Therapy is an established treatment protocol.

I know it is. That's why I mentioned it and also where it is being used. I am not going to bother explaining why they will test first. It also isn't currently easy to apply it to a population.

As to the rest the statistics around saying 148,000 are currently carrying the virus it's irrelevant and no point in remembering precise numbers. They can only be approximations based on probability and the type of distribution. Rather loose ones as well. 148,000 is the only one that has been generally reported anyway.

 

[Deleted2797112]

I know it is.

No. You don't.

This is what you wrote:

"There seems to be yet another test going on. Take some one that has definitely had it. Extract blood plasma and inject it into people who definitely haven't had it and see if they become immune. Details from a short news flash showing a doctor giving blood. It's also being used to check immunity test kits but some seem to feel that this can give misleading results."

It's not a test and it doesn't involve injecting blood plasma into people who definitely haven't had it. There is no such thing as an immunity test kit.

 

[durhamplumber]

Boris saying he was shaking hands with everyone even cv19 patients. Many weeks ago and people are inclined to forget about things like this.

What do you want to do?chew on about it forever?

 

[durhamplumber]

does involve giving a plasma transplant containing antibodies to critically ill people whose treatment options are limited i

More like it

 

[ajohn]

There is no such thing as an immunity test kit.

They are now saying that there is - from a Swiss company. There is one anyway but not suitable for general use. It's what pillar 4 testing is about.

They are also working on another one - cards for several blood spots. Ideal for posting out but work in progress so may come to nothing.

Pillar 4 testing - extract from an email my wife received a few weeks ago

PLEASE HELP US TO UNDERSTAND THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS THAT CAUSES COVID-19
We are writing to seek your help to undertake urgent research on COVID-19 in UK Biobank.
"With your help we can gather vital information about the spread of the coronavirus that will help guide the next steps that we take to contain it."
Professor Sir Patrick Vallance, UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser.
Thanks to your participation and the data that it already holds about you, UK Biobank is at the forefront of health research and is in a unique position to enable scientists to carry out ground-breaking research into the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we could do much more with your help.
Over the next few months, we would like to collect blood samples and information from you that will provide researchers with vital data about the extent of previous infection in different regions across the UK. This information will help in managing the COVID-19 pandemic and a safe return to normal life.
HOW YOU CAN HELP
If you would like to help, you will be sent a kit for taking approximately 10 drops of blood (around 0.5ml or one tenth of a teaspoon) from a finger-prick every month for at least 6 months. Each sample will need to be mailed to our laboratory where it will be processed and then tested for coronavirus antibodies (which show that a person has been infected with the virus at some time in the past).

Unfortunately she can't help. I would but they messed up my email address. I wish I had sorted that out now but there didn't seem to be any point. It follows peoples progress until they die but as it's a blind study they don't inform people about any conditions they find when people are entered into it or later when they request a full body scan. My wife didn't fancy going to manchester for that.They have a lot of info about both of us and access to our medical records.

 

[Deleted2797112]

They are now saying that there is - from a Swiss company. There is one anyway but not suitable for general use. It's what pillar 4 testing is about.

No. They're not and no it isn't. An antibody test is not an immunity test. There is an approved test which detects the presence of antibodies. There is no test that determines immunity. In the current state of knowledge of Covid-19, antibodies do not equal immunity.

 

[Vinty]

Have any studies been carried out to determine the rate of reinfection among people who have recovered from Covid 19.

 

[SirGalahad]

Have any studies been carried out to determine the rate of reinfection among people who have recovered from Covid 19.

I think there was one person in Japan who was said to have been reinfected.

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-catch-twice/

I would say long term outcome after infection is more important than the risk of being reinfected.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...advent-calendar-covid-19-symptoms-paul-garner

'Weird as hell’: the Covid-19 patients who have symptoms for months
Researchers keen to work out why some people are suffering from ‘long tail’ form of the virus

 

[Brigadier]

Have any studies been carried out to determine the rate of reinfection among people who have recovered from Covid 19.

To my knowledge, no, because the tests are in limited supply everywhere, and they're not reliable enough yet.
Early reports of such reinfection were put down to false results from repeated tests.

 

[durhamplumber]

Early reports of such reinfection were put down to false results from repeated tests.

As I said from day 1,wrong or inaccurate test is worse than no test.

 

[ajohn]

No. They're not and no it isn't. An antibody test is not an immunity test. There is an approved test which detects the presence of antibodies. There is no test that determines immunity. In the current state of knowledge of Covid-19, antibodies do not equal immunity.

If you want to be pedantic fine by me but perhaps you would like to contact the people who are doing the work that there is no point in detecting antibodies.

The other point of course is if the antibodies people generate don't get rid of it ............. but perhaps you can't see that aspect either.

 

[durhamplumber]

An anti-body test shows whether or not you have had Covid 19...An immunity test is completely different...How do they prove,with a test,whether you have immunity or not?....Refined version of sticking some virus on a petridish and see if a sample of ones blood kills it??

 

[Deleted2797112]

If you want to be pedantic fine by me but perhaps you would like to contact the people who are doing the work that there is no point in detecting antibodies.

The other point of course is if the antibodies people generate don't get rid of it ............. but perhaps you can't see that aspect either.

It's got nothing to do with pedantry. It's to do with apparently wilfully misrepresenting the science and scaremongering. There is a point in detecting antibodies. Go back and read my posts again - I have never said there is not. What I have said is to correct your assertions that:

- non-infected people are being injected with plasma containing antibodies
- an approved immunity test exists

At this point in time, the presence of antibodies does not equal immunity. As the science develops we will discover whether the presence of antibodies confers long-term immunity, short-term immunity or no immunity at all.

The usefulness of the antibody test at this time is to estimate what proportion of the general population has already had the infection and to support trials of plasma therapy.

 

[ajohn]

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