Energy bill to double from next month

[Notch7]

Yes it does, what other major European enconomies have an unemployment rate of 4.1%

wrong

Europe doesnt have mandatory education until 18 -so EU unemployment figures include 16 to 18 yrs olds
neither does it have a toxic benefits system that puts people on various schemes that dont count as unemployed
neither does Europe have so widespread zero ours contracts

No it hasn't, UK is the only country in Europe whose economy was larger in Nov 2021 (last available figure) than before the pandemic. The IMF agree with me.

wrong

"UK GDP will only recover its pre-pandemic Q4 2019 level by Q2 2022, 6 months later than the eurozone and a year after the US." Brian Coulton, chief economist, Fitch Ratings


1) FT January 3rd 2022:


Economists expect UK living standards to deteriorate in 2022 as inflation and rising taxes hit poorer households, while supply-chain blockages and Brexit-related trade underperformance will limit economic growth.

The Financial Times’s annual survey of almost 100 economists revealed that most expect inflation to outpace wages

At the same time, high energy costs and the increase in National Insurance contributions will hit those on lower incomes hardest.

A majority of respondents also said that the UK’s recovery would lag behind that of comparable economies, with many of them blaming this underperformance on political instability and a lack of any credible long-term economic strategy.

Although many countries are experiencing high inflation, supply-chain disruptions and labour shortages, Brexit would make these problems more severe in the UK, economists said, potentially prompting the Bank of England to raise interest rates more rapidly than other central banks.


Ray Barrell, professor of Economics and Finance, Brunel University London: The negative structural effects of Brexit are still working through the UK economy, and this is the main reason why UK growth will lag behind other advanced economies in 2022. The OBR suggest that over the medium term the self-harm inflicted by the exit from the EU will reduce productivity by 4 per cent, and we may expect this to reduce growth by around 0.5 per cent in 2022.

Jagjit Chadha, director, NIESR: The UK economy does not look well placed to lead the advanced country pack in 2022. A combination of a ragged edge over Brexit and political uncertainty will continue to hamper what might otherwise have been a stronger recovery. Specifically trade, investment and FDI will are unlikely to recover strongly and the skills gap in the labour market



2) Guardian 10 Jan 2022

Brexit changes will add to soaring costs in 2022, warn UK manufacturers
Make UK says two-thirds of companies fear customs delays and red tape from new rules will further hamper supply chains




3) Logistics manager 10 Jan 2022
New research commissioned by Adyen, a payments platform used by many of the world’s leading companies, has revealed that UK cross-border retail has declined sharply in the past year.

Against the backdrop of lorry driver shortages, supply chain challenges, the coronavirus pandemic and changes to import processes, the number of UK shoppers making purchases from other countries has declined 71% since July 2020.



4) Express Dec 14 2021

UK trade has shrunk since Brexit while EU thrives - data
BREXIT was originally intended to create endless opportunities for the UK. But, so far, the country has failed to make the vote profitable, with the prospect of "global Britain" quickly fading according to recent data.

graph from bank of England


5) Blomberg: £13b shortfall in total goods trade

 

[ajohn]

Yes it does, what other major European enconomies have an unemployment rate of 4.1%

What about he 8.8m economically inactive? Something of a rats nest to sort but unemployment rates can not be compared without knowing how they are calculated. Much the same applies to any headline figures.
Economic inactivity
People not in employment who have not been seeking work within the last 4 weeks and/or are unable to start work within the next 2 weeks.

People in one category shift pretty quickly. This sort of thing started when it was realised that past some period of unemployment people were highly unlikely to get another job.

No it hasn't, UK is the only country in Europe whose economy was larger in Nov 2021 (last available figure) than before the pandemic. The IMF agree with me.

Some see that as a retail bubble that wont last. However unless it's inflation corrected it's meaningless. There has been some unusual inflation due to covid orientated shortages so it could be argued that some sectors should be showing high contributions to the GDP if they are as active as usual.. If estimates of power costs in the near future are correct what do you think that will do to gdp? ' I've no idea but it and other factors will it seems hit retail.

Over all - In or out of the EU - irrelevant.

 

[ajohn]

Against the backdrop of lorry driver shortages, supply chain challenges, the coronavirus pandemic and changes to import processes, the number of UK shoppers making purchases from other countries has declined 71% since July 2020.

That in some ways can be seen as good. It's down to the VAT changes on sub £135 items and EU retailers sticking to the rules. Under the previous import rules tax would be charged on items over £15 at the boarder. It had been £18 for yonks. Inflation says it should have been higher. The change effectively means no imports by private individuals on items up to £135. Things appear to be different for some one who is VAT registered and dealing with a distributor that offers the service that is needed. An EU retailer now needs to register with UK VAT. Other than on items over £135 if they have their own capability to handle VAT free transactions. Some haven't. Carriers have generally increased costs as EU items now go out of their export channels.

Business wise there has always been method for them to obtain VAT free imports from the EU. There still is. The change plugs people say buying from Germany and paying their VAT and zero here. It's also a very severe limitation on people buying from international sources. Fine providing the items can be bought here and at the same price.

 

[Mottie]

Whilst the richest get even richer

Remind us of when the richest last got poorer.

 

[Notch7]

That in some ways can be seen as good. It's down to the VAT changes on sub £135 items

I think it’s mostly due to the painful non tariff barriers adding costs and delays.

I don’t see it as good because it seriously reduces the freedom of choice for British consumers.

 

[Mottie]

I don’t see it as good because it seriously reduces the freedom of choice for British consumers.

Surely that increases the potential for British businesses?

 

[danechip]

It is what it is, we can't do sh1t. just pay it and change steak for sausages,

 

[Lower]

That’s 40 years of neo liberal politics for you.

We need to look to Germany to see how we could rebuild manufacturing.


in Germany: Half of all youngsters in upper secondary school are in vocational training, and half of these are in apprenticeships

Apprentices aged 15 to 16 spend more time in the workplace receiving on-the-job training than they do in school, and after three to four years are almost guaranteed a full-time job.

In Germany, there is less stigma attached to vocational training and technical colleges than in many countries


We used to have great city and guilds courses now replaced by cr@p NVQs

look at the shortage of tradesmen in the UK - young people want to go to university to be an accountant, a lawyer, an app designer…,they don’t want to be a heating engineer.

That's a topic that is close to my heart and i couldn't agree with you more.

 

[ajohn]

Surely that increases the potential for British businesses?

It does but overall their claimed aim is free trade but not for us. They were under some pressure to reduce the £18 limit when they did and also dealings with the channel isles. The change achieves what they were after in that respect. Good for importers especially in retail and probably much better for what you might call fringe retail - items that not huge numbers of people buy. Cameras etc can be an exception. There will be others. Some main EU country's retailers run multilanguage websites.I've yet to see one that is UK based.

One method of paying tax has returned. The carrier looks after it. There was no mention of this initially even though it's been possible for a very long time. How it fits in in with sub £135 pass.

 

[ajohn]

Inflation is now at 5.3% but bear in mind that things like TV's and washing machines are included. Food wise there has been the usual pre xmas and post xmas increases. They seem to be higher than usual. Fuel prices etc. Be interesting to see what the B of E does.

 

[Deleted member 18243]

Government prints £400 billion in paper money then warns of inflation.

 

[big-all]

Government prints £400 billion in paper money then warns of inflation.

yes indeed taking perhaps 5p out off every pound in your pocket whilst laughing at you and telling you they are doing a good job and everything is fantastic

 

[ajohn]

They reckon there will be another gas and electricity increase when the cap gets looked at in April. We'll have to wait and see

Seems people in the USA are moaning due to petrol prices. Biden announces that he will release some millions of gallons of their strategic reserve. Sounds a lot but = 2 days of their domestic consumption. A politician at work. Sounds good but doesn't make any difference.

There is also another possible source of price increases around. Covid loans to business and rent holidays. I assume businesses have been having those too. Some businesses are seriously concerned about passing costs on to the public as they wonder if people will pay them. Most concerns relate to the cost of the stuff they buy. Nothing much has been heard about the loans for a while now. Previously just wondering how they will pay them off.

Printing £400 billion - show me a link that proves they have done that recently. When they did do that after the banking crisis it did devalue the pound but other currencies did the same thing so the effect wasn't noticed to any great extent.

 

[Deleted member 18243]

All the people on the dole and in prisons should be put to work on treadmills attached to alternators to generate power for the country.

 

[sbgasman]

You brexiteers are really getting desperate now, no matter what happens you will never blame brexit

Ah well, let the EU enjoy lower prices.

We voted to leave, let us face the consequences. I'm a gas man, I can comfortably afford the price rises but sadly many millions are going to be hit hard. I suppose many of them were brexiteers so let them reap what they sow.

You’re not even a gasmans cousin!