Oil running out?
- Thread starter joe-90
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EddieM
it was dark and cold.
attributed to Mr Meggawatt
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dextrous
Mankind has an uncanny way of solving things. We couldn't fly, now we can, we couldn't escape earth's gravity, now we can, we couldn't break the speed of sound, now we can, we couldn't get energy from renewables, now we can, we couldn't create and use electricity at all, now we can in many ways (not just by burning fuel)etc etc etc.
I don't really understand your complete pessimism with regard to human ingenuity to modify and adapt. I have no doubt that we'll will find a way of creating hydrogen on the levels required, quite probably at a fraction of the price that we extract and refine oil, if that's the way to go. I have no doubt that we'll find ways of harnessing energy from using the seas, if that's the way to go. I have no doubt that we'll find better ways of using the sun's energy to create electricity, if that's the way to go. Everything we've achieved so far has started somewhere in small measures - look how much has happened over the last 150years.
We're not at a stage of desperation yet, far from it, and I fail to accept that we will not resolve the difficulties you allude to well within the given timeframe. You need to stop listening to doom mongers and watching so many apocalyptic movies.
The bit that really worries me is that as the conventional oil starts to run out we will see more development of things like tar sands extraction, coal liquification and gas to liquids conversion to produce the liquid fuel our road vehircles, non-electric trains (round here I'd say well under half the trains are electric) and aircraft require. All of theese things are very inefficiant and are therefore going to push our CO2 emmisions even higher than they are at the moment.
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dextrous
Somehow, I doubt that will happen. Think the initial way forward will come from clean coal power stations, nuclear (again?), and heat differentials from groundsources - large scale versions of domestic versions. Think Iceland may become highl;y important and very wealthy through power production due to it's volcanic geology, plus I think large hot areas such as deserts will come into their own too to generate steam turbines
Thus I think our need for oil will dwindle soon enough.even if "clean coal" wasn't an oxymoron (sequestering CO2 is far from a proven technology) or geothermal and hydro weren't very limited in applicable areas or we built a load of new nuke plants ASAP (enviro-whackos are making this difficult) we would still have the problem of where to get the liquid fuel that our planes trains and automobiles largely rely on.
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dextrous
Hydrogen and/or electric cars.
Planes - don't know, but I suspect that there will still be enough oil for these for some considerable while yet if we get cars and electricity running from alternative fuel sources.
Somehow, I also suspect we'll find different ways of travelling quickly (super fast electric monorails?) or getting airborn.
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But the point you are missing is that none of those things involve the breaking of the laws of science. What you are suggesting (humans will find a way) will involve the breaking of the laws of science. None of the renewables are economically feasible on a big scale. How many wind farms would we need? How many millions of acres of arable land? Wave power? How will that replace oil? Do a bit of research and you'll find that none of them are a viable alternative. Blind faith in human ingenuity is pointless. We need a solution NOW because we are on the brink of a precipice that will be the biggest disaster in human history.
Remember, what our civilization needs in CHEAP oil. CHEAP energy or we get poorer and poorer. So what do you propose?
The only thing that surprises me with this thread is that it was not started in 1973.
Oh - we didn't have the internet then did we. But there was an Arab-Iraeli war and my father WAS issued a petrol ration book!
I remember the doom merchants telling us that the oil would run out in 10 years. i.e. 1983.
26 years later the oil has not run out, it will never run out.
It will just get more and more expensive as it gets rarer and harder to extract and this slows its use, just as diamondas are rare and expensive because they are hard to extract from deep underground (Yes - I know some are found on the surface, and so is some oil).
Oh - we didn't have the internet then did we. But there was an Arab-Iraeli war and my father WAS issued a petrol ration book!
I remember the doom merchants telling us that the oil would run out in 10 years. i.e. 1983.
26 years later the oil has not run out, it will never run out.
It will just get more and more expensive as it gets rarer and harder to extract and this slows its use, just as diamondas are rare and expensive because they are hard to extract from deep underground (Yes - I know some are found on the surface, and so is some oil).
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dextrous
There is no need to break any laws of science. We may not have found the answers yet on industrial scales, but we will do. We currently use oil, which no doubt at the time, the prospect of separating it into usable parts "broke" the laws of science and were considered ridiculous and unviable. Similarly with regard to generating such large quantities of electricity. Similarly with having planes that carry large gargos and passengers. Similar with trains that can get up to 300mph. Just 'cos we haven't done it yet doesn't mean that we're not going to. You need to think outside the box and stop being so reliant on fossil fuels as being the only thing we have.
