LOL. Trying to use standard deviation. Sorry folks I don't think that will work. Pathogenicity is heavily skewed by age in terms of hospitalisation. A tricky one as at times they have had loads of 30 odd year olds in most just needing oxygen but without it - death. Recently most have been around the 50's spectra but the 30's spectra has started getting significant as of last week making up around ~1/3 of the total. 2/3 still 50's.Catching relates do behaviour and etc plus randomness. What do you think the older groups are doing?
The actual age ranges involved run from either side of those.
C4 had one of the SA docs who reckons it's a milder disease on last night. She described typical symptom of a mild reaction to covid. She also was tongue tied on vaccinated or not. The missing info anyway is the age spectra of the people she has examined. She also admitted the UK is different.
Lets say for instance all were young. This could mean it's more likely to cause symptoms than delta which is reckoned to be more likely to cause symptoms than the previous virus.
Some other info came out of SA when Az started being used extensively. Their medical man reckoned that in terms of preventing more severe reactions it was ~30% effective but this was with younger people. They did a quick monitor of 10k people. For some reason young figures again. The other aspect is how does 30% compare with an unvaccinated population. The young are less likely to have problems anyway.
In an odd sort of way the UK and others are finally getting to a stage where a lot more light can be shed on that aspect due to high vaccination levels but even that is warped by age.
What countries can't do at the moment is assume it is milder and will result in less hospitalisation. They can see that it looks like it will spread to more people than usual so a bit of a clamp down on spread is introduced. It's too late to do anything if it does result in too much hospitalisation and it will take several weeks to find out what it means in practice. As Boris has said more steps may be needed.
Thanks to taking notice of sensible news sources I can add something else. Our medical lot keep a close watch on Israel as they are well ahead of the game. They started triple jabbing a while ago now. They were beginning to loose control. I think it's pretty obvious why the UK has held off for a while - winter. They want the effects of boosters etc to last through that period. This is also probably why the age range has been extended hoping that will reduce spread.
The other point of course is that even if it is milder the vaccines may not be as effective. Only time will tell. That has been the big worry all along about variants.
The actual age ranges involved run from either side of those.
C4 had one of the SA docs who reckons it's a milder disease on last night. She described typical symptom of a mild reaction to covid. She also was tongue tied on vaccinated or not. The missing info anyway is the age spectra of the people she has examined. She also admitted the UK is different.
Lets say for instance all were young. This could mean it's more likely to cause symptoms than delta which is reckoned to be more likely to cause symptoms than the previous virus.
Some other info came out of SA when Az started being used extensively. Their medical man reckoned that in terms of preventing more severe reactions it was ~30% effective but this was with younger people. They did a quick monitor of 10k people. For some reason young figures again. The other aspect is how does 30% compare with an unvaccinated population. The young are less likely to have problems anyway.
In an odd sort of way the UK and others are finally getting to a stage where a lot more light can be shed on that aspect due to high vaccination levels but even that is warped by age.What countries can't do at the moment is assume it is milder and will result in less hospitalisation. They can see that it looks like it will spread to more people than usual so a bit of a clamp down on spread is introduced. It's too late to do anything if it does result in too much hospitalisation and it will take several weeks to find out what it means in practice. As Boris has said more steps may be needed.
Thanks to taking notice of sensible news sources I can add something else. Our medical lot keep a close watch on Israel as they are well ahead of the game. They started triple jabbing a while ago now. They were beginning to loose control. I think it's pretty obvious why the UK has held off for a while - winter. They want the effects of boosters etc to last through that period. This is also probably why the age range has been extended hoping that will reduce spread.
The other point of course is that even if it is milder the vaccines may not be as effective. Only time will tell. That has been the big worry all along about variants.
. priceless.
